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Autumn 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread


IWXwx
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Mother Nature is complying with the calendar for Northeast Indiana. We have enjoyed a prolonged stretch of much above normal temperatures and even yesterday and today was/will be in the upper 70's. However, the autumnal equinox tomorrow will bring highs only reaching the upper 50's with the cold through/closed low (depending on your model of choice) and not much recovery until Friday afternoon. Welcome to fall 2021.

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29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Yeah love these early fall season change ushering lows

Classmate of mine at CMU had a great word for these fronts. Called them equalizers, 2 or 3 equalizers and you go from 90 to 60s and don't come back

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As a lower Lake Michigan denizen, looking at the winds and waters the next couple of days, wondering if others are thinking or talking about the seiche potential.
@RCNYILWX here .... Skilling elsewhere .... others?
I documented and rough analyzed some seiche data from 2004 <https://tgeo.com/seiche_4521/> .... of course the public data sites have changed since then.
Here's what monitoring potential I have for now:

 

 

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ORD is up to 97 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021.  Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Sep had meaningfully more 80+ days (45) than June-July (40).

If there is a warm spell in October, ORD could end up with around 100 days of 80+.  That may crack the Top 10, as I believe the record for a year is around 105??

April - 3 days

May - 9 days

June - 21 days

July - 19 days

Aug - 29 days

Sep - 16 days (assumes the high temp will hit 80+ on 9/29 and 9/30, but not on 9/28)

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32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

ORD is up to 97 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021.  Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Sep had meaningfully more 80+ days (45) than June-July (40).

If there is a warm spell in October, ORD could end up with around 100 days of 80+.  That may crack the Top 10, as I believe the record for a year is around 105??

April - 3 days

May - 9 days

June - 21 days

July - 19 days

Aug - 29 days

Sep - 16 days (assumes the high temp will hit 80+ on 9/29 and 9/30, but not on 9/28)

The record is 103 days in 2005.

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ORD is up to 99 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021.  Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Oct has meaningfully more 80+ days (47) than June-July (40).

Normally ORD would be done with 80+ days by now, but the warm pattern over the next 10-15 days may lead to a few more.  I don't think we'll break the record of 103 in 2005, but it could be close.

April - 3 days

May - 9 days

June - 21 days

July - 19 days

Aug - 29 days

Sep - 16 days

Oct - 2 days

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
39 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Boy, this thread's been dead.

Oh, we're going to Dayton the first week of December to see Trans Siberian Orchestra. Hope we don't get 89'd.

Maybe they can roll out 89% relative humidity just for you and the occasion. 

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So as we head toward winter, here's a question for everyone.  Have you ever given thought as to what the biggest snowstorm is that you could realistically ever see at your location?  

Obviously there are a couple things to look at when trying to come up with some answer.  One is to check what the biggest storms have produced regionally, and another is to look at the biggest storms at (or near) your current location.

I am going to focus on Chicago since that is close enough to me.  The record snowstorm for them is 23", with a few other storms that have produced at least 20".  I have wondered if we could ever get a 30" storm at ORD, which would be a whopping 7" above the record storm.  I see that as a very tall order, but not impossible, as there is precedence for storms producing over 2 feet of snow in other locations in northeast IL and elsewhere in the region. 

There is an overall trend toward more precipitation over time.  Factoring that in, I do think the record of 23" will be broken in my lifetime (assuming I live reasonably long) but it is probably more likely to be a 24 or 25 inch storm than 30 inches.  I have mentioned this before, but I view biggest snowstorm, hottest temp and coldest temp as the holy trinity of weather records for a given location (record lowest max, record highest min, biggest rainfall are not unimportant, but I don't put those on the same level).  Out of biggest snowstorm, hottest temp, and coldest temp, I'd actually give a slight edge to biggest snowstorm being the most likely one to be broken... even over hottest temp.

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