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On 9/23/2021 at 12:05 PM, ThundaBOOMA said:

150"+ in Boston would be pretty epic. Anything 100"+ in, as well as north and west of the major northeast cities, is kind of crushing and not something that these locations have seen in a very, very long time now.

Everyone points to 14-15 but that was an quite the  outlier for snow in a relatively short period of time.    George thinks SNE has moved to the lake effect snow zone....

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On 9/22/2021 at 1:48 PM, George001 said:

Maybe in the Berkshires, but the Boston area the ceiling is probably around 150 inches is what I am thinking now. Depending on how the pattern evolves over the next couple of months, that number could increase.

Maybe Blue Hill, but that's about it. I think the ceiling can realistically only be slightly above the max ever recorded which I think was 108" or something like that.

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1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Maybe Blue Hill, but that's about it. I think the ceiling can realistically only be slightly above the max ever recorded which I think was 108" or something like that.

The thing is, the epic 2014-2015 winter dumped 100+ inches of snow in the Boston area AFTER Jan 25th. In the epic 2010-2011 winter by mid Jan Boston already had around 50 inches of snow. Both those winters as epic as they were wasted half the winter, in my opinion the ceiling is something like dec- late Jan 2010-2011 the first half of winter, late Jan to late Feb 2014-2015, and then March 2018 all in one year. I do believe there is a very real chance we get that this winter with how the Enso, polar vortex, and ssts are looking right now. If we do get that, that would be well over 150 inches of snow in the Boston area. 

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11 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Everyone points to 14-15 but that was an quite the  outlier for snow in a relatively short period of time.    George thinks SNE has moved to the lake effect snow zone....

2014-15 had everything work out just right. That in itself is rare.  Arguably the pattern Will was touting produced amazingly.  But Scooter’s tantrum set it off!

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

2014-15 had everything work out just right. That in itself is rare.  Arguably the pattern Will was touting produced amazingly.  But Scooter’s tantrum set it off!

Worked out right for EMA and DE Maine.  Elsewhere it was a very good winter that just missed (several times) from being epic.

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4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yep. Here in NYC everything got going NE of us. Other than that it was definitely a very good winter. 55” here in Brooklyn 

We had 125% of average snowfall in 14-15, but any winter when Machias gets 5 feet more than here cannot be a great winter.  :lol:

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13 hours ago, George001 said:

The thing is, the epic 2014-2015 winter dumped 100+ inches of snow in the Boston area AFTER Jan 25th. In the epic 2010-2011 winter by mid Jan Boston already had around 50 inches of snow. Both those winters as epic as they were wasted half the winter, in my opinion the ceiling is something like dec- late Jan 2010-2011 the first half of winter, late Jan to late Feb 2014-2015, and then March 2018 all in one year. I do believe there is a very real chance we get that this winter with how the Enso, polar vortex, and ssts are looking right now. If we do get that, that would be well over 150 inches of snow in the Boston area. 

Never happen....you can't consider it that linear in nature. No winter, at this latitude, will ever produce that proficiently throughout the entirety of the winter, outside of LES belts and high terrain. There is enough flux due to the MJO that Boston will never see 150".

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On 9/22/2021 at 10:30 PM, raindancewx said:

This is from my winter outlook draft. Key word is draft. This is not necessarily representative of what I'll settle on by 10/10 when I finish up.

If you're wondering if it is possible to get two severely cold, Plains centered, February cold outbreaks in a row, the answer is yes, and it's not actually that uncommon. The second year outbreak tends to be weaker though. I used 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 as the match for last's year outbreak. Tentative idea is a more extreme version of Feb 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019 - i.e. similar spatial placement but much warmer in the south since you have strong long-term correlations to SE warmth in winter after -PDO Summers.

We could get a cold January, but even that idea is fading. 

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15 hours ago, George001 said:

The thing is, the epic 2014-2015 winter dumped 100+ inches of snow in the Boston area AFTER Jan 25th. In the epic 2010-2011 winter by mid Jan Boston already had around 50 inches of snow. Both those winters as epic as they were wasted half the winter, in my opinion the ceiling is something like dec- late Jan 2010-2011 the first half of winter, late Jan to late Feb 2014-2015, and then March 2018 all in one year. I do believe there is a very real chance we get that this winter with how the Enso, polar vortex, and ssts are looking right now. If we do get that, that would be well over 150 inches of snow in the Boston area. 

You can't realistically take those active periods where we got dumped on then add them all up and be like, "that's the ceiling". Winters in New England, especially eastern MA don't work like that. Even in the "highly active" winters, there is a lot of ebb and flow. That's like saying a baseball player who one season mashes 40 HRs before the All-Star break then only hits 15 the second half. And then the next season he hits 15 HRs before the All-Star break then hits 30 after. His ceiling wouldn't be 70 HRs. It's not realistic.

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What is SHM?

(Well, they won't let me contact Deparmtnet of (8 skips, computer went black) of Justice. I have real work to do, and US mlitary servants stop me pretty much all the time now. oh well. They count and stuff, thick layers of energy, connected to everything. Started when I met a man, so it's prett bad actualy. 

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I don't what he means by harmonics. I use timing variables though for local stuff since we get so little rain.

We had cool periods 6/29, 8/15 locally and now have another coming 10/1 with the rains (and high mountain snow) this week. So you have a 42-48 day recurring cold signal in the Southwest that's repeated multiple times already. Last year it was more like 6/10, 7/25, 9/9, 10/25 or something.

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On 9/25/2021 at 5:56 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

What is SHM?

(Well, they won't let me contact Deparmtnet of (8 skips, computer went black) of Justice. I have real work to do, and US mlitary servants stop me pretty much all the time now. oh well. They count and stuff, thick layers of energy, connected to everything. Started when I met a man, so it's prett bad actualy. 

SHM=simple harmonic motion.

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887

As Paul Pastelok said in the earlier link, the Accuweather winter outlook is out today (9/29). Some things are similar to what I have. Some stuff I look at locally makes me a little skeptical of a dry winter out here despite La Nina. Was amused to see they had a wet winter here. I don't buy ~130% of normal here like he has though.

December-2021-February-2022-Temperature-Departures-From-Normal.jpg?w=632December-2021-February-2022-Precipitation-Departures-From-Normal.jpg?w=632

Ski-Forecast-2021-2022.jpg?w=632

Snow-forecast-winter-2021-2022.png?w=632

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