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11 hours ago, Supernovice said:

can't help but jump in here-- for personal account 4th quarter *not financial advice*

XLF- Financials breaking out, 15% of that is Berkshire- if you believe in a cyclical recovery this is for you.

Crypto- BTC above 46 is a buy...and I like crypto exposed banks- SVB?

And I like commodities ex gold: Copper (bouncing off of support) and Oil (touching 7 yr highs) especially.

you can see that since the 10 year Yield rose quickly in early November thru end of May ...XLF Gained 50% As the yield curve steepened 
 

It’s been plateauing for last few months as 10 year fell from 1.65 to 1.40

...however the last two days ...the 2 year rose and the 10-30 year fell (flattening) Which is not bullish for that index (and basically why it fell last 2 days )

Whatever yield curve trend establishes itself (No idea)  will probably determine fate of XLF. I would guess XLF made its easy money . 

 

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7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Better hope it's a mild winter. Man the shit has hit the fan economically wise. Prices are through the roof on everything.  Can't be all pandemic.

https://apnews.com/article/business-prices-inflation-28e1231bdb445d482bb2d2e25dff1983

 

Yesterday I was shopping. I was amazed at the prices for even the most banal items but especially at the price of good cuts of meat. Absurd. 

 

Ground beef: +10.6%
Steaks: +22.1%
Bacon: +19.3%
Steak: +19.2%
Chicken: +17.1%
Fish: +10.7%
Eggs: +12.6%
Peanut Butter: +6.2%
Apples: + 7.8%
Ham: +7%
Baby food: +4.4%

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Going to be an expensive winter for heating. The EIA just released their winter fuel report. Heating oil, natural gas and propane are at record highs and almost double what they were a year ago.  Electricity is going to go way up as well due to most of our generation in New England being natural gas fired.  

The average heating oil price in New England is now over $3 gallon and expected to go higher 

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yesterday I was shopping. I was amazed at the prices for even the most banal items but especially at the price of good cuts of meat. Absurd. 

It's insane.  Cars....houses....food....gas.  Never mind that you can't find parts for anything. Glass....paint....car parts.  Went to Sherwin Williams the other week shelves were bare.   

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Just now, Whineminster said:

It's insane.  Cars....houses....food....gas.  Never mind that you can't find parts for anything. Glass....paint....car parts.  Went to Sherwin Williams the other week shelves were bare.   

Now getting a car at MSRP is a good deal. Good bye incentives and manufacturer’s rebates. 

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11 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It's insane.  Cars....houses....food....gas.  Never mind that you can't find parts for anything. Glass....paint....car parts.  Went to Sherwin Williams the other week shelves were bare.   

This is what we warned about during election time . It’s all coming true unfortunately 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The supply chain thing....how the eff did we get into the mess? I know COVID was one reason...but how did this mess happen?

Dunno, but throw in the Suez Canal blockage back in March, which handles 10% of cargo traffic. And the overall issues with staffing, but that may be more of a side-effect of the pandemic. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The supply chain thing....how the eff did we get into the mess? I know COVID was one reason...but how did this mess happen?

We can’t get anything at the ski area… skis, boots, all winter equipment and merchandise sitting in containers off the coast of LA.

Snow tires are going to run out in the northeast and North America soon so get them if you need them.  

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We can’t get anything at the ski area… skis, boots, all winter equipment and merchandise sitting in containers off the coast of LA.

Snow tires are going to run out in the northeast and North America soon so get them if you need them.  

Literally just took care of both of these. :) 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We can’t get anything at the ski area… skis, boots, all winter equipment and merchandise sitting in containers off the coast of LA.

Snow tires are going to run out in the northeast and North America soon so get them if you need them.  

The whole LA thing, that is because of a lack on longshoremen? Where the **** are people? Everyone going the Breaking Bad route?

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Gene I get what you are saying, but photography is also an art and can be abstract.  I guess it depends on how someone describes their photo?  Like a photographer who's prints someone is likely to want to print and put on their wall or view for fun might be different than someone taking photos to document an event for a newspaper or something.  Lets be honest, every single photo you've ever seen in National Geographic, in a scenic calendar you have hanging in your kitchen, postcards, magazines, posters, etc all were post processed.  Are National Geographic cover photographers lying to you?  Maybe a bit but they are sick photos.  Same with someone taking photos under the sea of fish life in that Nat Geo mag... it's probably a lot more murky, dark, and boring than the photos look in the article on fish.

In the photos above, I don't even notice the fall color as much because the foliage isn't that vibrant around the lake in either one.  It's more of a warmth alteration.  To me the top one is well refined and has an awesome wow factor but really...it's just "warmer" (red hued) and one is colder (blue hued) IMO.  The midday light is going to lead to a more blue photo (how the light passes through the atmosphere casting a blue tint, just like late day or early day light is warmer/red.  The crazy difference is in the background... can clearly see the wind farm vs. not even visible in the bottom.  The clarity in the background is nuts.

I think if someone was trying to take photos for a scientific experiment/comparison purpose, obviously post-processing would skew it.  But if you are a big fan of Newfound Lake and want to print a cool shot for your house to remind you of a beautiful place, which one of the two would you put on your wall?  Would you care or think about it any further if it's sitting on your living room wall?  Someone buys that beautiful sunset photo over the ocean for their beach house... the photo was played around with or tweaked but it's still beautiful to look at.

To me it's about what the photographer is claiming the photo is.  If they are going for an artistic piece, or a scientific observation would matter.

Scott,  I get what your saying too.  It's basically a continuum from what the eye sees to total art or fantasy.  If I happen to get a great morning shot on a still lake with mist and a heron flying  flapping his wings and creating ripples on the water that would be a great photograph.  If someone else takes a picture a minute before me and "photoshops" him in, to me it's cheating.  WMUR our NH station posted this picture that someone took at the Balsams.  Obviously no one under any lighting pictures would see that.  To me it is much more art than photography but countless comments said how stunningly beautiful it must have been up there.   We could go round and round but I think we both understand each others point.

244755352_10158918518813717_6399352757802427103_n.jpg

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The whole LA thing, that is because of a lack on longshoremen? Where the **** are people? Everyone going the Breaking Bad route?

And then the lack of truck drivers to get the goods to market. That’s what happens when you pay folks to stay home.  No shortage of goods…just a shortage of worker’s. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The whole LA thing, that is because of a lack on longshoremen? Where the **** are people? Everyone going the Breaking Bad route?

They had the manager of the LA Port on NPR this AM.  The port is at 100% capacity right now, so there is no room to bring in cargo.  It's getting the materials out of the Port right now that's an issue.  Need truck drivers.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And then the lack of truck drivers to get the goods to market. That’s what happens when you lay folks to stay home.  No shortage of goods…just a shortage of worker’s. 

The money is gone. So where are the people?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The money is gone. So where are the people?

Not enough skilled workers to fill these positions.  You can't jus come off the street and drive a truck.  Takes time/money to learn and earn your CDL license.  It's a grueling job as well but the pay can be incredible.  Heard the going pay for a new driver in 60-75K/yr now, where it was 40-50k just a couple years ago.

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Scott,  I get what your saying too.  It's basically a continuum from what the eye sees to total art or fantasy.  If I happen to get a great morning shot on a still lake with mist and a heron flying  flapping his wings and creating ripples on the water that would be a great photograph.  If someone else takes a picture a minute before me and "photoshops" him in, to me it's cheating.  WMUR our NH station posted this picture that someone took at the Balsams.  Obviously no one under any lighting pictures would see that.  To me it is much more art than photography but countless comments said how stunningly beautiful it must have been up there.   We could go round and round but I think we both understand each others point.

244755352_10158918518813717_6399352757802427103_n.jpg

That photo is way overdone.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not enough skilled workers to fill these positions.  You can't jus come off the street and drive a truck.  Takes time/money to learn and earn your CDL license.  It's a grueling job as well but the pay can be incredible.  Heard the going pay for a new driver in 60-75K/yr now, where it was 40-50k just a couple years ago.

Yes…gonna take time to catch up and teach and train folks.   

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The money just left pal…folks saved money, and they’re living off what they squirreled away, or finding other things to do unfortunately. 

This is very true. I know a ton of people in especially the skilled trades that took some time off as they made so much money the last year and a half. 

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9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not enough skilled workers to fill these positions.  You can't jus come off the street and drive a truck.  Takes time/money to learn and earn your CDL license.  It's a grueling job as well but the pay can be incredible.  Heard the going pay for a new driver in 60-75K/yr now, where it was 40-50k just a couple years ago.

Oh I know that, but the money ran out what 2 months ago? People know that was the plan. Are we just being dummies and not worried about getting jobs and living off what we saved I guess? I find that mind blowing, but must be true. Why be responsible.

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15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not enough skilled workers to fill these positions.  You can't jus come off the street and drive a truck.  Takes time/money to learn and earn your CDL license.  It's a grueling job as well but the pay can be incredible.  Heard the going pay for a new driver in 60-75K/yr now, where it was 40-50k just a couple years ago.

And if they like to smoke weed...forget about it.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How much time can you take off on 600 bucks a week?

Scott a ton of these folks were marking 600 bucks, plus full unemployment benefits on top of that for a long time. Then it was 300 bucks plus full unemployment benefits…lots of these folks didn’t ever make anything close to that…so why would they go back to work when they were making more than they ever made before. Sometimes double what they made before.  THis was the whole problem…and as you can see it’s trickle down effect is having huge ramifications.  

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott a ton of these folks were marking 600 bucks, plus full unemployment benefits on top of that for a long time. Then it was 300 bucks plus full unemployment benefits…lots of these folks didn’t ever make anything close to that…so why would they go back to work when they were making more than they ever made before. Sometimes double what they made before.  THis was the whole problem…and as you can see it’s trickle down effect is having huge ramifications.  

Yes for some people.  I get that. But it has to end, so my question is...what are these people doing now.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yes for some people.  I get that. But it has to end, so my question is...what are these people doing now.

I think they’re all picking and choosing and not in any rush to get back into the work force currently.  They’ll have to come back eventually(unless we turn into a Venezuela), but for now they’re living off what the government gave em for 18 months. 

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think they’re all picking and choosing and not in any rush to get back into the work force currently.  They’ll have to come back eventually(unless we turn into a Venezuela), but for now they’re living off what the government gave em for 18 months. 

I find it a fascinating study. Only humans can try to help each other out, but in the end **** ourselves over.

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How much time can you take off on 600 bucks a week?

People living very frugally in poorer areas can do it easily. 

It's a big issue up here. I have talked to several tradesmen who are already shut down for the winter. They can live off a couple grand for that time.  

These guys aren't living in 600k McMansions in SE Mass driving brand new Yukon Denalis.

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