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Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)


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NHC 12:30 pm update - LANDFALL in Western RI approx. 12:15 pm -

Quote
000
WTNT63 KNHC 221628
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE 
ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler 
weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of 
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island 
near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the 
time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60 
mph.

A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently 
measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph 
(113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode 
Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (Landfall @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 60 mph, NNW 12 mph, 989 mb)
1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Mt. Holly's 24 hr precip estimate (as of 8 am, posted 9:13 am) -

You can see the sharp cutoff -

E9ZcQJuWQAc35dN.png

 

ETA - I am currently 1.44" for the day so far (1.51" for the 2 day event at post time).

Pretty crazy how the really heavy totals cut off right at the Delaware river.

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Some of the models show an additional 1-2" overnight for much of the area as the precip pivots around the low in NY. They're also showing widespread 2-4"+ in the Delaware river headwaters. Will be interesting to see how much it rises on Monday. Right now Mt Holly thinks it will crest just below flood stage but I believe it can change if some of those widespread 2-4" totals verify in NW NJ/NE PA/SNY. 

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11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Some of the models show an additional 1-2" overnight for much of the area as the precip pivots around the low in NY. They're also showing widespread 2-4"+ in the Delaware river headwaters. Will be interesting to see how much it rises on Monday. Right now Mt Holly thinks it will crest just below flood stage but I believe it can change if some of those widespread 2-4" totals verify in NW NJ/NE PA/SNY. 

The fire hose flow is just bizarre.  It is spraying moisture from NY, NNW across NNJ and NEPA, and literally all the way out to central PA, where it starts "falling" (dropping) south, and then recurving around to the SE down into MD and across central DE. :huh: There's a big hole in between.

 It's like a giant hook or a hot wheels track or something. :lol:

fpLxhr.gif

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks we are at or close to landfall in RI.  It's hard to tell (at least on doppler) due to all the convection.

 

COD-GOES-East-subregional-Mid_Atlantic.13.20210822.141117-over=map-bars-lwir-08222021.gif

kbox_20210822_1415_BR_0.5.png

RI is a tiny piece of beach front real estate. Takes the right trajectory to get a LF tc there. With that said, anyone know the last time RI had a LF from a tc?

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

Big ol' dry slot across SE PA, winter has come early?

I can laugh at the big radar hole because it's rain but that would seriously piss me off during the winter.

Sun was poking though about an hour ago, now overcast.

 76F / DP  73

hole.jpg

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RI is a tiny piece of beach front real estate. Takes the right trajectory to get a LF tc there. With that said, anyone know the last time RI had a LF from a tc?

Hurricane Bob in 1991 (although Bob was much stronger than Henri) -

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/HurricaneBob1991EventReview

https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob

1991_bob_radar.jpg

800px-Bob_1991_track.png

And interestingly enough, it almost looks like a similar rainfall pattern too, although the track was a little different (not the Harvey-like getting cutoff and stall before moving out that seems to be progged for Henri) -

Bob_1991_rainfall.png

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (Landfall @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 50 mph, NW 9 mph, 991 mb)

NHC's 2 pm update (storm down to 50 mph sustained, has slowed to 9 mph, moving NW, and weakened to 991 mb) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221809 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Corrected initial latitude and distance to reference points in 
summary block.  

...HENRI SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM N OF WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was 
located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars 
near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is now moving 
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion 
with a decrease in forward speed is expected this afternoon. The 
center of Henri is currently located inland over southwestern Rhode 
Island. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down 
further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border 
tonight, with an east-northeastward motion across northern 
Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on expected on Monday.

Data from Doppler radars and surface observations indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Henri has 
moved inland over southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. 

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface 
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated
moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk 
Point, NY...1-2 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...1-2 ft
Flushing, NY to Merrimack River, MA including Narragansett Bay, 
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod 
Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight. 

TORNADOES:  The risk for a tornado or two continues today across
parts of southern New England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda
later today.  Swells are expected to increase across much of the
east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (Landfall @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 40 mph, WNW 7 mph, 997 mb)

NHC 5 pm Advisory (weakened to 40 mph sustained, speed slowed to 7 mph and now moving WNW, with pressure up to 997 mb) -

Quote
613 
WTNT33 KNHC 222040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 72.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was 
located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars 
near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Henri is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general 
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early 
Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday 
morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday 
afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down 
further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border 
tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern 
Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical 
depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant 
low by Monday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center, mainly over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of 
29 mph (47 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently 
measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern 
Long Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface 
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Henri at the following link: 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

WIND:  Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along 
coastal areas of Connecticut and northern Long Island during the 
next few hours. 

SURF:  Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

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Upstream Delaware river basin is getting dumped on right now. They missed last night thankfully but looks like that batch of heavy rain is going to park up there tonight. Looking like that widespread 2-4" could verify. Could bring some hydo issues Tuesday along the river.

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9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You gotta think they are near 8"-10"+ at this point in spots...

They broke a record in Central Park last night right when they had (stupidly) went on with that concert there and then had to halt it about halfway through and cancel the rest because of --> :lightning:

WPC actually still has part of SE PA as Marginal for their Day 2 -

 

wpc-Henri_rainfall-538-08222021.gif

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18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

They broke a record in Central Park last night right when they had (stupidly) went on with that concert there and then had to halt it about halfway through and cancel the rest because of --> :lightning:

WPC actually still has part of SE PA as Marginal for their Day 2 -

 

wpc-Henri_rainfall-538-08222021.gif

I find the 1.94" extremely low for their 1hr precip record. I would have thought 2.5" - 3"+. I mean a solid thunderstorm can lay down 2"+...not sure who keeps records up there but it doesn't sound correct. 

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23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I find the 1.94" extremely low for their 1hr precip record. I would have thought 2.5" - 3"+. I mean a solid thunderstorm can lay down 2"+...not sure who keeps records up there but it doesn't sound correct. 

Well if it came out of their ASOS there, it was automated.  I know that KNYC (Central Park) has always been made fun of (temperatures and snow measurements) and I always wondered if they normally bypass it and use KJFK for official readings for NYC.  I found a pic of the little complex of instruments so it could be a tree issue - https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical

CentralPark_ASOS.jpg

I think the funky slatted unit on the left is their rain gauge/ASOS.

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)

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