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Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)


Hurricane Agnes
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10 minutes ago, Newman said:

My goodness 12k NAM PARKS that PRE band right over Philly. Reminds me very much of Hurricane Joaquin, which had that inverted trough/PRE rainfall all across South Carolina without ever landfalling. This will just be a more microscale similarity

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

Hmm if only this were winter this would be quite the norlun trough

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (75 mph, NNE 14 mph, 991 mb)

NHC 11 am Advisory (now upgraded to a hurricane, has intensified to 991 mb, and sped up a bit to 14 mph) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 211440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the southern coast of New England has been
extended eastward to west of Westport, Massachusetts, including
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Massachusetts has been
extended eastward to Chatham, including Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located 
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 72.5 West. Henri is moving 
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A faster 
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed 
by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest 
on Sunday.  On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make 
landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through
tonight.  Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on
Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the 
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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2 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Well just like in the winter, heavy bands like that don’t always work out. Hoping for the lesser 1-2” amounts at worst. 

We called that the "death band". :lol:

Seriously though, the issue will be if something like that does come to fruition and Henri pivots around leaving the band in place across the same areas as the storm slowly moves further N/NE.  It's currently accelerated from its slow 6/7 mph up to 12/14 mph, but some earlier comments had been that it might not do a typical "getting swept up in the jetstream bolt" to something like 20+ mph like these storms tend to do when they get up here. So if it stays in the low-mid teens for forward motion, that could produce some prolonged rain banding as it creeps over the colder water and weakens.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

We called that the "death band". :lol:

Seriously though, the issue will be if something like that does come to fruition and Henri pivots around leaving the band in place across the same areas as the storm slowly moves further N/NE.  It's currently accelerated from its slow 6/7 mph up to 12/14 mph, but some earlier comments had been that it might not do a typical "getting swept up in the jetstream bolt" to something like 20+ mph like these storms tend to do when they get up here. So if it stays in the low-mid teens for forward motion, that could produce some prolonged rain banding as it creeps over the colder water and weakens.

Good Lord, Philly's gonna wash out to sea if that happens!

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7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

We called that the "death band". :lol:

Seriously though, the issue will be if something like that does come to fruition and Henri pivots around leaving the band in place across the same areas as the storm slowly moves further N/NE.  It's currently accelerated from its slow 6/7 mph up to 12/14 mph, but some earlier comments had been that it might not do a typical "getting swept up in the jetstream bolt" to something like 20+ mph like these storms tend to do when they get up here. So if it stays in the low-mid teens for forward motion, that could produce some prolonged rain banding as it creeps over the colder water and weakens.

That’s a good explanation. Hope for the faster moving then! What time are we supposed to see the worst of what comes? I am supposed to be out tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Interesting how the cane is ending up on the eastern end of guidance far away from this region but the big impact potential is still there for floods due to interaction with the trough and blocking.

 

 

Henri is gonna grab his buddy Low and run on up to Boston to smack the sh!t outta them after that Iggles debacle. :P

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3 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

That’s a good explanation. Hope for the faster moving then! What time are we supposed to see the worst of what comes? I am supposed to be out tomorrow.

I think it may start sometime late this afternoon and overnight into tomorrow. I'm looking at the doppler and the top part of one of Henri's bands is right off the coast.

radar12-08212021.png

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10 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

That’s a good explanation. Hope for the faster moving then! What time are we supposed to see the worst of what comes? I am supposed to be out tomorrow.

Both the NAM and HRRR have this band of rain setting up and starting around 8pm and lasting through most of the overnight.

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24 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Thanks all. So will it be clearing out tomorrow afternoon?

Mt. Holly is claiming "through tomorrow" so it might depend on whether the stall/loop-de-loop happens that has been showing up in some models and it hangs around a bit longer and/or whether it does actually speed up its forward motion and gets swept away back off the coast. 

Your point forecast for Mt. Holly is calling for 70% chance of showers all day tomorrow and then down to 50% overnight and 40% Monday.

 

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48 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Mt. Holly is claiming "through tomorrow" so it might depend on whether the stall/loop-de-loop happens that has been showing up in some models and it hangs around a bit longer and/or whether it does actually speed up its forward motion and gets swept away back off the coast. 

Your point forecast for Mt. Holly is calling for 70% chance of showers all day tomorrow and then down to 50% overnight and 40% Monday.

 

Thanks. I am on a hill and don’t usually flood, but I have to go out tomorrow so will watch road conditions. At least “showers” would be better.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Hrrrr has Henri turn the trough into a rain train from hell. Don't need that...

 

I'm still recovering from Isaias' flooding. So yes, don't need to rebuild and replace everything two years in a row :axe:

It is a little unsettling that the hi-res models keep picking up on that death band, so there probably is something to it. But as always, the "jackpot" zone will be a now cast thing.

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Henri looks like it's falling apart. All of it's convection is sheared off to the SE. Possibly due to moving out of the gulf stream? Also, is there such a thing as the Fujiwara effect that can occur between an area of low pressure (as in, currently over the interior mid-Atlantic) and a tropical cyclone? Looks kinda like what's happening to my untrained eye at least.

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14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'm still recovering from Isaias' flooding. So yes, don't need to rebuild and replace everything two years in a row :axe:

It is a little unsettling that the hi-res models keep picking up on that death band, so there probably is something to it. But as always, the "jackpot" zone will be a now cast thing.

You can see the moisture feed flowing right up here.  The radar is showing some kind of returns over the Toms River area but I'm not sure if there is actually rain going on there or not.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-eastcoast-truecolor-17 36Z-20210821_map_-15-1n-10-100-08212021.gif

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11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

You can see the moisture feed flowing right up here.  The radar is showing some kind of returns over the Toms River area but I'm not sure if there is actually rain going on there or not.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-eastcoast-truecolor-17 36Z-20210821_map_-15-1n-10-100-08212021.gif

That’s an impressive satellite presentation clearly see abundant moisture getting pulled away from Henri moving straight back NW towards Jersey SE and E Pa the moisture train is on quite a conveyor belt.

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7 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Henri looks like it's falling apart. All of it's convection is sheared off to the SE. Possibly due to moving out of the gulf stream? Also, is there such a thing as the Fujiwara effect that can occur between an area of low pressure (as in, currently over the interior mid-Atlantic) and a tropical cyclone? Looks kinda like what's happening to my untrained eye at least.

It actually has an eye-looking formation appearing on vis sat.  And yeah, the models have been suggesting whatever would be an equivalent to a Fujiwara between it and the Low south of here with the two of them taking a road trip together up north.   I think that Henri just got caught in some kind of flow that has been accelerating the speed since it is going faster now as of the 2 pm update.

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NWS 2 pm Advisory (holding steady on the same trajectory but has now sped up to 17 mph, with pressure holding at 991 mb) -

Quote
511 
WTNT33 KNHC 211734
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING FASTER...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located 
near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 71.8 West.  Henri is moving 
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is 
expected to continue through tonight.  A decrease in forward speed 
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or 
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast through tonight.  Although some 
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast 
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of 
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 991 mb (29.27 
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That’s an impressive satellite presentation clearly see abundant moisture getting pulled away from Henri moving straight back NW towards Jersey SE and E Pa the moisture train is on quite a conveyor belt.

I was looking at the mid and lower level vapor sat images and there's dry air trying to get into the circulation of Henri from the west and Henri is literally jammed up against a "wall" of shear on the eastern side. So you can actually see what looks like a pipe funneling clouds up here.

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)

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