August 2021

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That's not true.

Could easily still make landfall anywhere between Montauk and Nantucket as a hurricane.

All options are still on the table.

I was going by the NHC official track which had it weakening at our latitude or just before.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage.  Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds 

What exactly is keeping this from going further west, a front coming in?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada.

 

 

 

when is this current bout of extreme dew points supposed to end? It's been utterly miserable the last couple of days.

 

[SACRUS]

8/19

PHL: 90
EWR: 90
BLM: 89
ACY: 89
LGA: 89
JFK: 88
New Brnswck: 88
TTN: 87
TEB: 86
ISP: 85
NYC: 85

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when is this current bout of extreme dew points supposed to end? It's been utterly miserable the last couple of days.

 

Maybe next weekend 

[doncat]

87/75 temp split today...0.54" rain.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

8/19

PHL: 90
EWR: 90
BLM: 89
ACY: 89
LGA: 89
JFK: 88
New Brnswck: 88
TTN: 87
TEB: 86
ISP: 85
NYC: 85

JFK 3 degrees hotter than NYC on a sea breeze, interesting

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK 3 degrees hotter than NYC on a sea breeze, interesting

 

Water temps are 75-76 now. Not much cooling from seabreezes. They only raise the humidity. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Water temps are 75-76 now. Not much cooling from seabreezes. They only raise the humidity. 

If we do get a direct hit from a hurricane this season it would maintain a lot of its strength.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(76/92), or +10.       GFS going out of August, Strong and Wrong.

Month to date is  77.1[+0.4].        Would be  79.2[+3.0] by the 30th.     More likely would be  78.0[+1.8]. 

850mb T's are still 16C---21C through the 28th.     Then quick changes leading to a 9/05 crash{first 40's?}

76*(80%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.     80* at 10am.        Reached 85*(63%RH) at 5pm.

I gave Newark competion yesterday with 90*[55%RH] at 5pm-6pm.

HMON, HWRF models have Henri croaking over NYC---LI (on Sunday) and an ordinary L then proceeding north.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

when is this current bout of extreme dew points supposed to end? It's been utterly miserable the last couple of days.

 

This could be one of our longer 70°+ dew point streaks. The Euro has 70°+ dew points for the rest of the month. So we are on track for our first 6 year stretch of 50 days reaching the 70° dew point mark.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few places could see a shower or thundershower. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.0°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Henri could impact the region on Sunday into Monday. Model solutions are west of where they were yesterday and the formative block may leave latitude for an even further west track. Parts of Long Island and New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts as things currently stand.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good slug of moderate to heavy rain moving up from the southwest. Some of this should get into the NYC metro. Amounts TBD.

[SACRUS]

78 / 69 and cloudy.  Unlike Wed / Thu today looks mainly cloudy.  Saturday - Sunday more of the same clouds / humid and increasing storm / rain chances increasing by Sun as Henri tracks east of NJ into E=LI / and SNE.  Henri will come into SNE then hook left into the Catskills later Sun into Mon.  We'll likely deal with clouds and showers till then.  

 

By Tue (8/23) - Fri (8/27) ridge over the EC, clears out and we heat up.  850 temps forecast at >16c by Tue then >18c Wed (8/25) and Thu (8/26).  

Front and more onshore humid / hung up boundary later next week into next weekend.  Longer range does look to continue warm to hot as some guidance hinting strong heat out west slides east towards the end of the month and opening of next month. 8/30 and beynd.

[SACRUS]

21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Pretty good slug of moderate to heavy rain moving up from the southwest. Some of this should get into the NYC metro. Amounts TBD.

 

Lets see if it continues east or comes up into CNJ/NNJ later this morning

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If we do get a direct hit from a hurricane this season it would maintain a lot of its strength.

 

Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s

and lots of upwelling with a slow moving system?  If this isn't the last system we get, later on in the season, September or October, is when we usually get much faster moving systems that dont cause upwelling, isn't it?

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

78 / 69 and cloudy.  Unlike Wed / Thu today looks mainly cloudy.  Saturday - Sunday more of the same clouds / humid and increasing storm / rain chances increasing by Sun as Henri tracks east of NJ into E=LI / and SNE.  Henri will come into SNE then hook left into the Catskills later Sun into Mon.  We'll likely deal with clouds and showers till then.  

 

By Tue (8/23) - Fri (8/27) ridge over the EC, clears out and we heat up.  850 temps forecast at >16c by Tue then >18c Wed (8/25) and Thu (8/26).  

Front and more onshore humid / hung up boundary later next week into next weekend.  Longer range does look to continue warm to hot as some guidance hinting strong heat out west slides east towards the end of the month and opening of next month. 8/30 and beynd.

no end to the humidity or even a break?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and lots of upwelling with a slow moving system?  If this isn't the last system we get, later on in the season, September or October, is when we usually get much faster moving systems that dont cause upwelling, isn't it?

 

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time 

Also Sandy had a huge assist from a strong mid latitude trough that phased into it. This will be purely tropical and a smaller radius. Big question will be how fast it's moving as it gets here, if it's less than 20-25mph it'll weaken pretty fast and it landfalls as a tropical storm. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time 

what caused Gloria to weaken so quickly? I heard it was moving at a similar speed

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Also Sandy had a huge assist from a strong mid latitude trough that phased into it. This will be purely tropical and a smaller radius. Big question will be how fast it's moving as it gets here, if it's less than 20-25mph it'll weaken pretty fast and it landfalls as a tropical storm. 

so in a way the assist from the trough makes them bigger and more powerful? total energy Sandy dwarfs most hurricanes

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was the calm before the possible storm. The sky was covered by some low- and mid-, and high-level clouds. The temperature rose into the lower 80s.

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the calm before the possible storm. The sky was covered by some low- and mid-, and high-level clouds. The temperature rose into the lower 80s.

Don, after reading through the many understandably anxious posts in the multi forums I needed your photos, thank you. As always ….

[SACRUS]

8/20 

EWR: 85
New Brnswck: 85
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
JFK: 83
TEB: 82
BLM: 82
LGA: 82
NYC: 82
PHL: 82
ACY: 78

[donsutherland1]

During the weekend, the track of Henri will have potential impacts on the weather, especially for Sunday into Monday. A period of blocking will be developing. However, the block will not rival that which steered Sandy to New Jersey landfall. Nevertheless, the guidance is now favoring a track farther to the west than had been the case 24 hours ago.

At present, a track that takes Henri across Long Island and then into New England has become the most likely outcome. That will likely bring pounding surf and periods of heavy rain to the region. Parts of Long Island and southern New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +13.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.490 today.

On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.936 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.349 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.9° above normal).

 

[doncat]

An isolated shower right over my station...gave a quick 0.50"...was surprised. 

[wxallannj]

An isolated shower here also.   .46"  between 6-7 p.m.

 

[doncat]

79/72 temp split today...0.50" rain.