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Few SVR likely either early tonight and/or Wednesday afternoon July 20-21, 2021


wdrag
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Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. 

Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. 

TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields  a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight.   Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR?  Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday.

Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed. 

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39 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I wonder if the smokey conditions will put a damper on tomorrows possible thunderstorms?...TWT...

I don’t think so the only reason I’m saying that is in upstate New York They were put on her a severe thunderstorm watch and I know they had some warnings up that way

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10 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I don’t think so the only reason I’m saying that is in upstate New York They were put on her a severe thunderstorm watch and I know they had some warnings up that way

did it happen?

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

There's a thin line heading my way but by no means severe. It'll probably blow up south and east of me 

Front is fast moving-Upton AFD  says we're done by late afternoon-to me that says the timing is off today

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Front is fast moving-Upton AFD  says we're done by late afternoon-to me that says the timing is off today

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

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19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

Wagons south on this one IMO.  Most modeling shows south of NYC to be in the zone....

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39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

We do have MLCape to work with, so the early showers may not matter.

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upton:   Not too enthused....

-

Severe tstm watch 385 issued for the entire area til 00Z. That
said, signals are mixed re severe wx potential especially across
the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT. One sfc trough has drifted
well to the south, with a more subtle pre-frontal trough
extending back into north central PA and accompanied by widely
sct convection, while the sfc cold front lags even farther
behind across upstate NY and western PA. A BL theta-E ridge
extends from southern NJ up into SE New England, and with
further daytime heating could expand westward into SE CT and
eastern Long Island this afternoon.

Convection with a leading short line segment over northern NJ
so far has not been very robust with reports of small hail at
most so far, but things may change going into this afternoon.
Latest HiResW guidance suggests tstms will become focused
along the pre-frontal trough to the west and move across the
NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon, while the latest
HRRR also forecasts tstms developing to the SW to graze NYC and
Long Island. Given drier air and lack of focusing mechanism
other than sea breezes, have questions how much activity the
lower Hudson Valley and srn CT will see.

Strong convection may be confined to eastern Long Island and
perhaps SE CT after 6 PM, with a few trailing showers/tstms
possible all the way back to NYC. As N-NW flw ensues this
evening, any remaining activity should end after sunset, with
dew point readings getting down in the more comfortable upper
50s toward daybreak on Thursday, with low temps from the upper
50s well north/west to the 60s elsewhere.
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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

upton:   Not too enthused....

-

Severe tstm watch 385 issued for the entire area til 00Z. That
said, signals are mixed re severe wx potential especially across
the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT. One sfc trough has drifted
well to the south, with a more subtle pre-frontal trough
extending back into north central PA and accompanied by widely
sct convection, while the sfc cold front lags even farther
behind across upstate NY and western PA. A BL theta-E ridge
extends from southern NJ up into SE New England, and with
further daytime heating could expand westward into SE CT and
eastern Long Island this afternoon.

Convection with a leading short line segment over northern NJ
so far has not been very robust with reports of small hail at
most so far, but things may change going into this afternoon.
Latest HiResW guidance suggests tstms will become focused
along the pre-frontal trough to the west and move across the
NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon, while the latest
HRRR also forecasts tstms developing to the SW to graze NYC and
Long Island. Given drier air and lack of focusing mechanism
other than sea breezes, have questions how much activity the
lower Hudson Valley and srn CT will see.

Strong convection may be confined to eastern Long Island and
perhaps SE CT after 6 PM, with a few trailing showers/tstms
possible all the way back to NYC. As N-NW flw ensues this
evening, any remaining activity should end after sunset, with
dew point readings getting down in the more comfortable upper
50s toward daybreak on Thursday, with low temps from the upper
50s well north/west to the 60s elsewhere.

Maybe for you?

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