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Winter 2021-22


Ji
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On 11/13/2021 at 5:21 PM, WxUSAF said:

Nice post which again highlights how we need a NAO ridge to couple with the ENSO favored -WPO for us to have a chance this winter. But if we can get that, we should have some chances for cold and snow. Without it, SE ridge goes on roids.

 

It is basin wide...its just focusing more east with time.

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is basin wide...its just focusing more east with time.

This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December? 

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50 minutes ago, frd said:

This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December? 

2-3 months....but just watch the VP charts...at the end of the day, the convective forcing needs to move east or nothing matters.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2-3 months....but just watch the VP charts...at the end of the day, the convective forcing needs to move east or nothing matters.

Hi Ray. I went to isotherms website and it's still running. He hasn't done a winter outlook yet. I do have a question. He mentioned that when geomagnetic energy ap is low, it usually promotes a tendency for a -nao. Even when we have a +qbo. Hopefully we have that this winter off and on

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9 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi Ray. I went to isotherms website and it's still running. He hasn't done a winter outlook yet. I do have a question. He mentioned that when geomagnetic energy ap is low, it usually promotes a tendency for a -nao. Even when we have a +qbo. Hopefully we have that this winter off and on

I'm pretty confident that the polar domain will not be much of an issue this season....at least in the DJFM mean.

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Doug Kammerer winter forecast:

https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/
 

In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb.

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Doug Kammerer winter forecast:
https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/
 
In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb.
He is just guessing. His winter outlooks have been horrendous
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I think we are In the favorable two months mostly below average trait DC displays. Not April May or Sept Oct this time. So we got from now until about 1/1/22-1/15 . These lows  just wanna go west with some serious cold coming in behind  but the miler Bs just don’t work here. 12.5” DCA seems right

 

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