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SVR/FF potential late today-Friday June 29-July 2, 2021


wdrag
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Cannot seem to post my words and that of NWS products...  What is happening?

 



Potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, especially late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri?  Looks to me like Danny vort gets involved Thu-early Fri per tracking remains on RAL and op cycles. Iso FF possible Thu-Fri per WPC D3 excessive.  Remembering all the cycles prior to last Saturday of 4-7" by July 5,  we shall see.  Not thinking of adding July 3-4-5 since opportunity for the bulk of the RW+ slipping just south of us - but could be close for the southern part of the forum.  

SPC D2 SVR northern part of Forum (I80) north,  D3 Marginal throughout.

 

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What somehow is not allowing a post direct from WPC.  
 

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

Troughing will dig southward-southeastward out of Ontario into the
Ohio Valley, allowing the long-standing boundary to move southward
and eastward as it gets reinforced from the northern height falls.
Right rear quadrant of the jet (~70-100kts) will dip into the
eastern Great Lakes early Thursday promoting larger-scale upper
divergence above the surface cold front. Axis of precipitable
water values 1.50-2.00" (about +2 sigma) will precede the front,
coupled with CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg generally south of 40N.
00Z guidance showed differences in timing and how far east (I-95
to I-87 corridor) and southeast (western VA/NC) heavier rainfall
may get (or in one or two waves), though the ECMWF ensemble mean
has been rather steady the past few runs while the GEFS mean has
wavered on favoring the DelMarVa or not. Best QPF signal aligning
with heavier QPF was over the central Appalachians which may be
overnight Thu into early Fri. Multi-ensemble probabilities
(GEFS/ECENS/CMCE) of at least 1"/24hrs was about 50% in the Slight
Risk area, and about 15% for 2"/24hrs. Extended the Marginal area
westward back to the Southern Plains and SE CO where PW values
will remain high (1.50-2.00") just to the south of the cold front.

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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Not that I know of.  It might be a glitch.  It's not letting you type after you add an image?

Not easy to post w an image for me.  Have to do some redo's.  

 

Warnings extreme ne PA and ne CT but no svr our forum.  Spotty heavy showers extreme nw NJ with up to ~3/4" seen in the data between 2-445P.  Saw pea size hail in an mPing report sw of Port Jervis.  

 

Wantage heat today of 92.5 at 740'MSL is hoter than anytime last summer. 

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Good Wednesday morning everyone,

 

No significant changes to the WPC rainfall/severe weather threats as posted yesterday.  We shall see what happens.  I'll tend to be around today-this evening to comment, not so Thurs-Fri DAYS.

 

There was 1 minor damage in the Bristol CT area yesterday (our official forum coverage area). I'll post the CoCoRAHS rainfall for the past 24 hours, around 10A with brief heavy showers nw NJ yesterday afternoon, and then last night across interior se NYS into sw CT after midnight. 

 

 

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Have added the 833AM SPC outlook as mentioned by Crossbow above.  My gut is telling me a big day is ahead for southern NYS/CT breaking down along I80 this evening. Time frame 3P-9P, with NYC last around 7-9P.  Big CAPE to our north is my flag, but the HI down here and yesterdays lead severe which I think everyone will admit was further south than predicted are my concerns for bigger this far south.  Slightly stronger wind fields than yesterday as well.

Also, fwiw,  se NYS and ne PA picked up some 1" clusters of storms yesterday as we'll soon see via CoCoRAHS and already in the mesonet data (1.3" max so far).    This post worked as normal-thank you. 

Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 8.53.54 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 8.54.14 AM.png

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I've a question to tropics group... no answer as of yet but as I'm seeing it.... remains of Danny vort lowest 300 MB (700, 850, 925) is somewhere in W TN/w KY this morning, ready to be absorbed ahead of the approaching front.  Wondering if it's enhanced wind convergence is driving the band of heavy showers along I70 of southern IND into w central OH.  Could be a forgotten player in heavy rains NJ-Delmarva tomorrow?  Doesn't seem to have much high dew point pooling but the wind field does look like it might be a contribution well in advance of the front.  Early morning qpf out there nearly 2".

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So, impacting post event analysis... a couple of demo's this morning and why i think there is room for improvement,  adding WXUnderground data for some sort of filtered ingest into radar and sensor evaluations.  Pea sized hail occurred in Pike County as I recall so some of the radar data there may be a little high.

Ground truth...  still primary and the multiplatform mix needs further improvement. 

Examples follow for Pike County PA and the Indianapolis metro area this morning. 

Pike County PA: I saw several reports of 1/2" qpf yesterday in Pike County PA, but CoCoRahs has no reported OBS. 

Indianapolis:  Radar eval looks a little low this morning per the reported CoCORAHS data.

 

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Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 9.38.57 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 9.40.42 AM.png

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Might be an interesting next 6 hours (gthru 8p?) as in my mind, the apparent remnants of Danny circulation act upon a narrow band of downstream convection vcnty PIT- possibly Scranton.  FFW's upstream. Hilly terrain out there.  

 

Otherwise, please follow SPC expanding area of Watches and NWS warnings-LSR verifications.

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Warning issued

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Central Union County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Queens County in southeastern New York...
  Richmond County in southeastern New York...
  Kings County in southeastern New York...
  New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York...
  Southwestern Nassau County in southeastern New York...

* Until 1030 PM EDT.

* At 938 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from SoHo to near Sayreville, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.
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  • Rjay unpinned this topic

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