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Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


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2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

You should definitely have enough time to get there, it's still raining and the lull hasn't started yet 

I just hope that there's actually enough going on for a Nader or two to spawn, I mean models look okay and the spc is nifty but I don't think the word "tornado" was mentioned once in the northern IN forecast discussion

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The first part of this statement says it all.


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Look, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, even if the shot is the equivalent of half courting it. Besides, I have nothing better to do today

 

 

 

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Look, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, even if the shot is the equivalent of half courting it. Besides, I have nothing better to do today
 
 
 

If you’re gonna go anywhere, C IL would make more sense.

That was my original plan, but it’s just a bit too marginal/conditional for the 3 hour drive (Or more).


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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


If you’re gonna go anywhere, C IL would make more sense.

That was my original plan, but it’s just a bit too marginal/conditional for the 3 hour drive (Or more).


.

Really? For isolated supercell type stuff?

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


If you’re gonna go anywhere, C IL would make more sense.

That was my original plan, but it’s just a bit too marginal/conditional for the 3 hour drive (Or more).


.

I'd have about a 3.5-4 hour drive just to get to the edge of the 2%. No thanks.

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Really? For isolated supercell type stuff?

C IL has been recovering fairly well in the wake of early day rain, storms and cloud debris. Meanwhile, IN has been stocked in with scattered showers and cloud debris much of the day.

Obviously IN could still very well go later (And probably will in some fashion), but on paper to me the C IL potential is greater given the recovery.


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Plenty of evidence for Chicagoland to get in on things tomorrow. AM convection should lay out the effective warm front. Shear looks decent on a lot of guidance, especially ahead of a weak surface low that tracks towards the area from the southwest during peak heating. Winds could locally back under fast, ~unidirectional flow aloft. That flow may also be parallel to some of the boundaries around which enhances the heavy rain potential. Gonna take a good amount of sun with temps well into the 80s to get decent convection, given the poor mid level lapse rates. If all that happens, a wet microburst setup and isol tornado threat is there. Perhaps some supercells mixed in initially given the 50KT of bulk shear. 

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


C IL has been recovering fairly well in the wake of early day rain, storms and cloud debris. Meanwhile, IN has been stocked in with scattered showers and cloud debris much of the day.

Obviously IN could still very well go later (And probably will in some fashion), but on paper to me the C IL potential is greater given the recovery.


.

What town would you suggest we head to for now?

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Plenty of evidence for Chicagoland to get in on things tomorrow. AM convection should lay out the effective warm front. Shear looks decent on a lot of guidance, especially ahead of a weak surface low that tracks towards the area from the southwest during peak heating. Winds could locally back under fast, ~unidirectional flow aloft. That flow may also be parallel to some of the boundaries around which enhances the heavy rain potential. Gonna take a good amount of sun with temps well into the 80s to get decent convection, given the poor mid level lapse rates. If all that happens, a wet microburst setup and isol tornado threat is there. Perhaps some supercells mixed in initially given the 50KT of bulk shear. 

Indeed...It’s another day I’ve been watching.

 

Have discussed it a bit with others off the board, as it definitely has some potential.

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ILX thoughts

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Surface analysis this afternoon depicts a stationary front
stretched from northern IL into IA well north of the area. An
outflow boundary is positioned across southeast IL into central MO
with convection ongoing in our far southeast IL counties as well
as new activity firing over central MO as of 3 PM. Elsewhere, a
break from the precipitation is occurring with some breaks in the
clouds noted across west-central portions of the state. SPC
mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE starting to build northward with
clearing, though we remain capped (50-150 J/kg) from about I-70
northward from earlier convection. This will prevent anything from
developing in these areas for the next few hours. Confidence in
the evolution of activity going into tonight remains low. Once the
CAP erodes, scattered storms should develop across west-central
IL along the ouflow boundary sometime later this afternoon or
early evening, which the 25.18Z HRRR picks up on. However, CAMs
have not been performing well. The idea is that coverage will
increase by tonight as a few mid-level waves ripple through the
southwest flow aloft and the LLJ kicks in. Strong to severe storms
remain possible across locations south of I-74 with damaging
winds and large hail being the main threats. However, decent low-
level shear with a boundary in the area could support a brief
tornado or two
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Mesoscale Discussion 1096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

   Areas affected...central Missouri to central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 252146Z - 252245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch appears warranted to account for
   expected upscale convective growth over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Despite earlier MCS that spread across the Midwest,
   rapid air mass destabilization is occurring just southwest of the
   STL area. Further destabilization is expected downstream across
   central IL over the next few hours which should contribute to robust
   convection. Latest satellite imagery exhibits a line of deepening
   cumulus, with some showers, from near SPI to north of CMI.
   Thunderstorms will likely evolve along this corridor soon.
   Additionally, larger cluster of strong/severe storms should
   propagate across central into eastern MO with a threat for
   hail/wind. WW will likely be issued soon.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 06/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39549270 40748829 39388781 38439003 38169268 39549270 

image.png

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image.png.3014f9828e36d458c53a3b8bd42e073f.png

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   510 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central Illinois
     Central and northeast Missouri

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple clusters should develop and spread east-northeast
   from central Missouri through central Illinois this evening
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Tornado warning north of Decatur IL.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
558 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  West central Piatt County in central Illinois...
  Southeastern De Witt County in central Illinois...
  Northeastern Macon County in central Illinois...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 558 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Argenta, or 11 miles southeast of Clinton, moving
  northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Weldon.

This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 153 and 160.

 

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