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Central PA - Summer 2021


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5 hours ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86 whatever you do, do NOT look at the 0z GFS in the morning. Up late on vacation and thought it’d be fun to see what it looked like before I went to bed for a change, but now I wish I hadn’t.

@Voyager, feel free to look at said model run. It’s your fantasy.

Life threatening temps and extreme drought (extreme drought considering a two week time period.)   5 hours ago was around 2AM.  Were you calling State Farm for the GFS update?  :-)  

 

Euro and CMC do not seem so extreme on the temps.  Euro even worse on qpf through 240. 

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Life threatening temps and extreme drought (extreme drought considering a two week time period.)   5 hours ago was around 2AM.  Were you calling State Farm for the GFS update?  :-)  

 

Euro and CMC do not seem so extreme on the temps.  Euro even worse on qpf through 240. 

LOL. Happened to be up late enough to check it. It looks like an anomaly because 1) the 6z looks night and day different in the longer term and 2) the GFS has been spitting out unprecedented heat in the middle of the country for weeks. While I’m pretty sure it’s been hot there, I don’t think it’s been to all time record levels. Next week will be hot. But it probably won’t be ridiculously hot and it might not be that prolonged.

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38 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

LOL. Happened to be up late enough to check it. It looks like an anomaly because 1) the 6z looks night and day different in the longer term and 2) the GFS has been spitting out unprecedented heat in the middle of the country for weeks. While I’m pretty sure it’s been hot there, I don’t think it’s been to all time record levels. Next week will be hot. But it probably won’t be ridiculously hot and it might not be that prolonged.

Keep those 100's outta here.  No heat records needed this year.   I will check out the 12Z when I have some time.    Busy week. 

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

LOL. Happened to be up late enough to check it. It looks like an anomaly because 1) the 6z looks night and day different in the longer term and 2) the GFS has been spitting out unprecedented heat in the middle of the country for weeks. While I’m pretty sure it’s been hot there, I don’t think it’s been to all time record levels. Next week will be hot. But it probably won’t be ridiculously hot and it might not be that prolonged.

12Z GFS is an Old Fashioned "Call the Patriot News/Post-Gazette/Philly Inquirer and warn the commoners about heat" heat wave.  Its not as intense as some runs but its relentless especially for the LSV and South/East.    Would have to do some checking but may run the risk of setting a record for most days in a row above 90 at MDT.  Think we have had this discussion before.  10 of 11 days above 90. CMC focuses much of the heat farther West and not nearly "as bad" but still hot.     GFS does throw out this fantasy relief.  12Z Euro questions whether anyone except S/E PA even sees a heatwave.  Not nearly as hot as it has a minor trough affecting the area late next week.  

 

image.thumb.png.d7b7fa433c02bc8c748e9a557681075e.png

 

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On 8/3/2021 at 3:20 PM, canderson said:

I noticed last night it has started getting darker earlier. Mid August to mid September it moves so quickly. 

Oh no!

I have been noticing the difference from late June for several weeks now.  I am really missing looking out the windows at 9:20 and realizing it's still not 100% dark outside; almost but not quite.  

I do not normally miss peak summer light but I am this year.  So the darker days ahead will be hard.  I have been telling myself to pay more attention in the future and try to enjoy the latest light even more next summer.

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I went to see the Area Forecast Discussion to see what else I could find out about upcoming  heat.  I must give the NWS credit for telling me exactly what I wanted to know in their 1:21am update:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will be marked by a trend toward a sultry
summer sizzle with hot temperatures and dewpoints in the upper
60s and low 70s. Increased heat and humidity will prompt the
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but there is no
apparent heavy rain threat at this time.

Sultry summer sizzle.  OK.  Not what I want but now I know what's coming.  I have been happy to keep the windows closed and wear my bathrobe late at night with temps in the 50s but it's coming to an end. I am surprised it lasted as long as it did here in Williamsport at this time of year.

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