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Summer 2021 maximum temperature forecast contest _ results posted


Roger Smith
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Bump for confirmed deadline -- no extensions now planned. 

In the original post I had listed the max to date, two locations have improved on those by one degree since I posted. 

Thanks for your entries. I will make up the table of forecasts tomorrow night (as 06z is only 11 pm where I live) and have it ready for posting at the deadline. 

If anyone has ideas about seasonal max at other U.S. locations, we have a forum-wide contest opened up in the "general weather" thread and the same deadline as this contest although a late penalty arrangement exists there (basically you lose the square of late days, e.g., 2.5 days late would cost 6.25 points). 

Please note in this contest, no late entries accepted, but feel free to edit to the deadline, I will check for edits but won't start creating the table of entries until around 04z Monday which is midnight Sunday in EDT (I think). 

_________________________________________________

Scoring:

same as other years, the sum of your departures from final seasonal max numbers. 

However, I will announce in advance that in the case of a tie (for any position) the order will be determined as follows:

(a) smallest maximum error

(b) if necessary, second smallest error (defined as smallest of three errors left to separate after (a) eliminated)

(c) if still tied, earliest entry (regardless of edit times if applicable since not visible to readers)

... ... ... most do not edit anyway so probably a "moot point."

______________________________________

An example of the tie-breaker, let's say two tie for five total departure points and get there with 2, 3, 0, 0 and 1, 3, 1, 0 ... the maximum error is the same (three) but once taken off the table, then the 1, 1, 0 will finish ahead of the 2, 0, 0. 

______________________________________

There will be a secondary award for most direct hits and that will be separated the same way (since if necessary both or all will have similar numbers of zero errors, the separation will be achieved by looking at maximum errors). 

Last year if my memory is reliable the winners had total departures of 3, and there were a few entries with two direct hits.

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Decided to work on the table of entries mainly because I can now easily spot late edits and change the order of entry. I am aware that WxWatcher007 edited his original post but probably not that long after posted? anyway, won't matter as it looks to be in a range where ties would be unlikely to go to order of entry anyway. Will be proofreading this to make sure I have the right numbers in the right places, some people entered in a different order so check your table entry, if you think it's wrong after the deadline, let me know (I won't be finished proofreading this until later this evening).

Just to clarify, you may edit up to the deadline, and further entries are welcome, will be edited into this table. Use the table to get an idea of what values are taken. So far it turns out that two entries are identical (CAPE and WxUSAF).

 

Table of entries for Mid-Atlantic summer max 2021 contest

Order of entry is regardless of editing unless the forecaster chooses to inform the organizer of edit time, in which case the order will be amended to reflect the time of editing. Order of entry (the number in brackets) is a last resort parameter for separating ties, after two rounds of "largest error" determination. See June 12 post for details on tiebreaking this year. As a courtesy I will concede to anyone on order of entry if that becomes an issue -- in other words, I cannot win this contest on order of entry.

The table of entries follows the order of warmest DCA to coolest DCA, with IAD a secondary and BWI a tertiary factor in setting the table order.

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC

George BM (2) _________________ 107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108

MillvilleWx (6) __________________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103

vastateofmind (11) _____________104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103

toolsheds (16) _________________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101

wxdude64 (5) __________________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104

Rhino16 (3) ____________________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105

H2O (13) _______________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103

Weather53 (25) _________________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103

Prince Frederick Wx (10) _______ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104

CAPE (1) ______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103

WxUSAF (7) ____________________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103

yoda (15) ______________________102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104

SnowenOutThere (24) __________101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103

Roger Smith (--) ________________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104

GramaxRefugee (12) ___________101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100

___ Consensus (mean of 26) ____101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102

NorthArlington101 (14) ________ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104

storm pc (9) ___________________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101

A777 (21) _____________________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100

Wxdavis5784 (11) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101

Roger Ramjet (22) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102

MNTransplant (19) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101

WxWatcher007 (20) ____________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 

tplbge (19) _____________________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100

mattie g (4) _____________________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101

GATech (23) ____________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

nw baltimore wx (8) _____________98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99

biodhokie (17) __________________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102

___________________________________________________________________

26 entries with mine not given an order of entry -- have said in tiebreaker rules section that as host

I will concede on order of entry if it comes down to that. So you will see the highest order of entry

number is 25. Changed the order for WxWatcher007 to 20th since he says he edited quite recently

(but I saw his edit before A777 entered as the table was already under construction then).

No worries as I bet the order of entry won't come into play, the errors will settle any ties if required.

Hopefully somebody wins outright.

Consensus values for the contest are now calculated (means rounded to nearest whole numbers). 

(late note: I added Weather53 to the table, even if his entry was a few hours late, I missed seeing it until today (June 26) for some reason and I don't think there was any really useful information available on June 14th that wasn't available to everyone else the day before ... so we have 26 entries now). 

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17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s the tiebreaker?

Thank you for your work on this.

Tiebreaker fully explained in my recent post (before the table of forecasts above the post from A777) ... basically, highest error is eliminated in two stages, if that fails to separate, then it's order of entry into the contest. Since you probably edited (going by quotes) can you estimate when you edited? I really don't expect the tie-breaker situation to go as far as order of entry especially for a forecast like your own which is well separated from others and unlikely to generate similar errors at four locations (not saying you can't win though, just unlikely to be tied). 

(example) ... two tied with total departure of five, 2, 0, 2, 1 and 3, 1, 1, 0 ... the 2021 beats the 3110.

... two tied at 2,0,2,1 and 2,1,1,1 ... The 2111 beats the 2021 on second elimination. 

Concept is basically the same as sudden death elimination in a golf tournament. First hole is high score. Second hole is the remaining high score. Then darkness falls and we go into the clubhouse to settle it. 

In general, entries are still accepted to the end of the day, 06z tonight is the deadline. Edits are accepted too but will change order of entry stat.

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Tiebreaker fully explained in my recent post (before the table of forecasts above the post from A777) ... basically, highest error is eliminated in two stages, if that fails to separate, then it's order of entry into the contest. Since you probably edited (going by quotes) can you estimate when you edited? I really don't expect the tie-breaker situation to go as far as order of entry especially for a forecast like your own which is well separated from others and unlikely to generate similar errors at four locations (not saying you can't win though, just unlikely to be tied). 

(example) ... two tied with total departure of five, 2, 0, 2, 1 and 3, 1, 1, 0 ... the 2021 beats the 3110.

... two tied at 2,0,2,1 and 2,1,1,1 ... The 2111 beats the 2021 on second elimination. 

Concept is basically the same as sudden death elimination in a golf tournament. First hole is high score. Second hole is the remaining high score. Then darkness falls and we go into the clubhouse to settle it. 

In general, entries are still accepted to the end of the day, 06z tonight is the deadline. Edits are accepted too but will change order of entry stat.

I think it was about 36 hours ago but just count me as last.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sorry I didn't notice that last entry around the deadline, I'm going to assume it was close enough that nobody will protest if I include it, so I am putting it into the table now. Nothing much going on with this for a while, I would imagine. All the heat is out west here, I am first to 100 degrees apparently (101 F outside here as I type). But it's a dry heat yada yada. 

The contest consensus (derived from means of 26 forecasts) is 101_101_102_102

I think BWI was marginally below RIC and IAD marginally below DCA but rounded off these two pairs are equal. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
36 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

July 26th and we have not topped 95 at DCA this year.

That's a little surprising. I was going to go with all sub-100 temps, but figured we'd get a day or two with a downsloping wind to get Dulles there, but I can't find any really hot days (I swear there was a 98 or something at some point). I also figured Richmond would really roast a few days, but they haven't been above 96 (twice).

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

That's a little surprising. I was going to go with all sub-100 temps, but figured we'd get a day or two with a downsloping wind to get Dulles there, but I can't find any really hot days (I swear there was a 98 or something at some point). I also figured Richmond would really roast a few days, but they haven't been above 96 (twice).

I've been to 97.5.  The problem with DCA so far is that our heat was in June, when the river wind was more of a factor.  Another 95 at DCA today.

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  • 3 weeks later...
10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

100 at IAD for the only triple digits at the 4 sites.

I wonder if it has to do with how dry IAD has been lately compared to other locations. Throughout this weeks heatwave I noticed that cumulus would always first develop around IAD. Perhaps with how dry it is in that area the ground heats up quicker and we hit the convective temperature before surrounding areas? I noticed the same thing yesterday after the morning mid-level clouds dissipated/moved east. It's what lead to the development of the eastern Loudoun, Montgomery, northern Fairfax county storms. Just a little something I've noticed all week.

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Updated seasonal max and contest standings

 

_________________________________DCA_ IAD_ BWI_ RIC

Updated highs as of Aug 13th __ 97 _100 _ 99 _ 96

Current leaderboard

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error (neg)

 

tplbge (19) _____________________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100

__________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5

biodhokie (17) __________________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102

___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6

mattie g (4) _____________________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101

__________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 (1)

GATech (23) ____________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ ___ 3 ____________ 7 (3)

nw baltimore wx (8) _____________98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99

___________________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 8 (4)

A777 (21) ______________________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100

__________________________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _____________ 8

MNTransplant (19) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101

__________________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 _____________ 10 (1)

Roger Ramjet (22) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102

___________________________________2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 6 ____________ 10

Wxdavis5784 (11) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101

__________________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 11

WxWatcher007 (20) ____________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 

__________________________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 11 (3)

GramaxRefugee (12) ___________ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100

___________________________________4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 4 ___________ 13

storm pc (9) ___________________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101

__________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 14 (1)

 

___ Consensus (mean of 26) ____101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102

___________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 6 ___________ 14

 

CAPE (1) _______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103

__________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16

WxUSAF (7) ____________________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103

__________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16

NorthArlington101 (14) ________ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104

__________________________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 8 ____________ 16

yoda (15) ______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104

_________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 8 ____________ 16

toolsheds (16) _________________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101

__________________________________ 7 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____________ 17

Weather53 (25) _________________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103

___________________________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 17

Rhino16 (3) ____________________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105

__________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 9 ____________ 18

Roger Smith (--) ________________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104

__________________________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 18

wxdude64 (5) __________________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104

__________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 19

Prince Frederick Wx (10) _______ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104

___________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 8 __________ 19

SnowenOutThere (24) __________101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103

__________________________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 19

MillvilleWx (6) __________________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103

__________________________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____________ 20

H2O (13) _______________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103

__________________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 7 ___________ 20

vastateofmind (11) _____________104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103

__________________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 7 ____________ 21

George BM (2) _________________107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108

__________________________________10 ___ 6 ___ 8 ___ 12 ___________ 36

___________________________________________________________________

(Numbers in brackets after forecaster name indicate order of entry). 

NOTES: Very few of the departures (errors) are negative so far (indicated by italic type), those of course can only increase with future changes in seasonal maxima. So in almost all cases these scores can still improve and all the totals could improve. The number in brackets after a few of the total scores are "total negatives" which represent the portion of the score already locked in. Only some of the better scores have this element. The number in brackets then also represents the lowest total score you can now achieve if your positive departures reduce to zero. 

Second place biodhokie has three of four stations at zero error currently, while leader tplbge has two on the right value with a total departure of 5. 

Nobody so far has a lower forecast than the actual values at DCA and RIC (for RIC there is still a field-wide three degree shortfall at 96 F, one (biodhokie) has a zero error now for DCA at 97F and there are several at 98F). 

Took a quick look at today's weather and it looks like none of the above will change today. 

 

 

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to Summer 2021 maximum temperature forecast contest _ results posted
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