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Upstate/Eastern New York


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19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A few rumbles of thunder and some decent wind/rain. Nothing special, last night was better. The real show is going to be near Syracuse when that line hits that instability. Can almost guarantee a tornado spinup in central/eastern ny this afternoon. 

Agreed, came home a different way to try and hit the best part just outside Batavia. About the time it started to rain I could already see the clearing…Yawn

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2 hours ago, cny rider said:

Seems bizarre to me they left Otsego County out.  I'm not sure why they did.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western Connecticut
     Western Massachusetts
     Eastern New York
     Northeast Pennsylvania

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over central PA/NY will spread eastward
   across the watch area through early evening, posing a risk of
   locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
   statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
   Binghamton NY to 20 miles east of Pittsfield MA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

ww0303_radar (1).gif

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Well at least for this run the heaviest precipitation stays to the west (12z euro)..Still showing some showers and storms..

Kbuf

The next upper level trough will drop across the Great Lakes and the
Northeast Friday through Monday, all the while a few shortwaves will
also rotate through. As it stands currently, the ridge exiting east
aloft Friday will keep the majority of the area dry. However, a cold
front associated with the upper level trough aloft over the Great
Lakes will continue to cross the Great Lakes before entering Western
New York late Friday night into Saturday. Thus, expect showers and
thunderstorms to sweep across the area from west to east overnight
Friday through Saturday. Model guidances continue to progress the
trough and frontal zone slowly with its moisture being fed from the
Gulf of Mexico due to the southwesterly winds. This will bring the
much needed rain to the area.

Looking further ahead, model guidance packages continue to push
through a few more shortwaves while the trough is overhead. As such,
chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.

qpf_acc.conus (4).png

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4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

We had the line of thunderstorms go through here between 5 and 6. The temperature dropped from 90 to 70 but we only got 0.36 inches of rain. 

We only got about half that. But the winds were impressive.  Lots of small branches down and leaves shredded.

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