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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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Sterling NWS discussion on Elsa from early Sunday am:

Guidance is in overall good agreement in regards to the breakdown of
the H5 ridge over the middle and later portion of next week as a
strong 594dm ring of fire develops over the Southwestern US. However
there is a good amount of spread amongst members in regards to the
finer details, especially what, if any impacts we see from Elsa. The
GFS has been hinting that the remnants of Elsa track up the
Appalachians Wednesday into Thursday as a Bermuda high, associated
with the aforementioned H5 ridging persists closer to the east coast.
If this verifies correctly, could see potential flooding impacts
across the CWA. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GEM track Elsa just
to our south and east. What`s interesting is the fact that the
EC/GEPS/GEFS are more in agreement that the upper level trough is
more progressive and the Bermuda High is shifted further east. This
would allow Elsa to track more out to sea. Furthermore, the trend in
the NAO shows a peak just shy under 1 STD which doesn`t indicate a
strong Bermuda high, especially closer to the coast, and will likely
have some wiggle room to shift more eastward. This all hints at a
solution that allows Elsa`s track to not affect the CWA.
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5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS shifted Elsa rains NW to just SE of DC for TH.

 

      Yeah, the steering flow along the east coast in the 12z GFS has more of a southerly component than previous runs, which allows Elsa to come further west.   It seems to be in response to the midwest upper trough being a little bit stronger.     Will be interesting to see whether this cycle is a blip or is legitimately catching on to a trend.

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