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The March Lion


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00z NAM/HRRR came in deeper than before.

The NAM actually has a band of 65-70 kt winds at 925 mb around Lake Michigan, but mixing looks fairly poor at that time and even 925 mb would probably have some trouble mixing down.  Along/south of the surface low track, mixing looks better for a time to potentially tap into freakishly strong wind fields.  Not sure yet what the magnitude of this will turn out to be, but there is potential for it to be more than your run of the mill 55-60 mph high wind event.

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Models have been hit or miss giving us snow with the storm. But if the column cools enough the dynamics of the system should allow for rates heavy enough to accumulate nicely.  Sneaky chance at some snow cover when we wake up Friday morning 

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM/HRRR came in deeper than before.

The NAM actually has a band of 65-70 kt winds at 925 mb around Lake Michigan, but mixing looks fairly poor at that time and even 925 mb would probably have some trouble mixing down.  Along/south of the surface low track, mixing looks better for a time to potentially tap into freakishly strong wind fields.  Not sure yet what the magnitude of this will turn out to be, but there is potential for it to be more than your run of the mill 55-60 mph high wind event.

Could be wide spread power outages if mixing verifies 

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13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z Euro

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

The surface low drops 11 mb in 6 hours on that run... between 00z and 06z.

This map is very impressive to see at 925 mb.  As mentioned, likely to be a shallow mixing environment north of the surface low, but one thing I am wondering is if some of that depicted heavier precip could try to mix it down.  If it does, look out.

925wh.us_mw.thumb.png.348d82165fa81d44d98f4d9c35735405.png

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

RAP drops over 2" of rain here with some models only about 1/3".  

That wind event looks pretty serious tomorrow evening from IN into OH.  Multiple models all showing a compact, yet very high end wind event.  Looks like 60mph should be breached quite easily along wherever that swath sets up.

10z RAP drops 0.03" here now lol.  Looks like mostly a whiff southeast with the heavier rains like most models have been showing.  

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Latest runs have a weaker surface low.
Won't be surprised if the 12z Euro is weaker than 00z.
There's been a lot of bouncing around, even with the ECMWF which has been the most consistent, with the 06z and 18z runs and ensembles weaker than the 00z and 12z. Wonder if the models are struggling with handling the effects of warm sector convection on mass fields. Certainly not uncommon for that to be an issue.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

There's been a lot of bouncing around, even with the ECMWF which has been the most consistent, with the 06z and 18z runs and ensembles weaker than the 00z and 12z. Wonder if the models are struggling with handling the effects of warm sector convection on mass fields. Certainly not uncommon for that to be an issue.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

What did the 06z Euro get it down to?

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One of the few High Wind Watches/Warnings I've ever issued. Momentum transfer numbers from the 00Z 3/24 GFS showed values I don't think I'd seen before (61kt at Muncie). Last night's numbers were lower, but still impressive.

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2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

And this is why I'm happy this storm is taking place now and not when a foot of snow could have been on the line. Lol.

Imagine how annoying this would be to watch slip away if it were snow......it’d be meltdown central in here 

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Guidance did terribly with this storm system, which obviously had an affect on the severe t'storm risk for a large area...and will have an affect on the wind/rain aspects for many areas as well.

As others mentioned above, the Euro was particularly bad... The 0z run had a 981MB SLP in NW IN tonight, while the new 18z run has a 992mb SLP in NW OH.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Guidance did terribly with this storm system, which obviously had an affect on the severe t'storm risk for a large area...and will have an affect on the wind/rain aspects for many areas as well.

As others mentioned above, the Euro was particularly bad... The 0z run had a 981MB SLP in NW IN tonight, while the new 18z run has a 992mb SLP in NW OH.

Whatever happened to "The King"?

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It is very difficult to get a low 980s surface low in northwest IN.  I can probably count on one hand how many times I know of it happening over the course of many decades.  Usually it will end up farther north or not deepen quickly enough to get to that.  You'd like to think the Euro knows what it's doing at only about 24 hours out, but caution was warranted given the rarity of what was depicted in addition to tepid model support for something that deep.

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On 3/25/2021 at 8:32 PM, Hoosier said:
It is very difficult to get a low 980s surface low in northwest IN.  I can probably count on one hand how many times I know of it happening over the course of many decades.  Usually it will end up farther north or not deepen quickly enough to get to that.  You'd like to think the Euro knows what it's doing at only about 24 hours out, but caution was warranted given the rarity of what was depicted in addition to tepid model support for something that deep.


Kudos to the RGEM/GEM, which were generally weaker/east most runs leading into today.


.

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