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Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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That 12z HRW FV3 run is something... Hoping something like that does not happen today. Verbatim that would be a super-outbreak. No other CAMs are quite as aggressive with supercells up into Tennessee or really even that far south in MS, so it's definitely an outlier.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0252.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi and
   Alabama...parts of southern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251512Z - 251745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may
   consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado
   threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been
   elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of
   the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central
   AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired
   rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface
   based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures
   warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing
   effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a
   tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2
   along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger
   instability develops into the warm advection zone.

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New convection getting going near Baton Rouge could be of interest over the next few hours.

Satellite and radar obs tell me those Tuscaloosa storms are certainly trying...

Also JAN just hit 75/71.

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I have learned from watching storms here in the Midwest never to discount the possibility and potential of WF associated thunderstorms and tornadoes.  And with an environment like you have in AL at present I would be especially concerned.

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I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

This is becoming an AL event in a hurry 

6LvlxkI.png

Are the storms developing in the SW part of the state not the main show? I don’t think any of the models have depicted the morning convection to develop into the main round of supercells.

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1 minute ago, Quincy said:

I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary. 

Yeah, the Philadelphia area is still in the hot seat. Jackson not as much.

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2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1_ said:

Hes banning wizard021 which is me for no ****ing reason. 

Hi. Not sure what you're up in arms about, but lets not call people ass shats, shall we? 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Hi. Not sure what you're up in arms about, but lets not call people ass shats, shall we? 

I have a feeling I know why he got banned....

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Just now, mappy said:

Hi. Not sure what you're up in arms about, but lets not call people ass shats, shall we? 

Wizard021....now banned twice today 

 

Now back to your regular scheduled program 

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Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Wizard021....now banned twice today 

 

Now back to your regular scheduled program 

holla if you need me ;) 

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11 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Are the storms developing in the SW part of the state not the main show? I don’t think any of the models have depicted the morning convection to develop into the main round of supercells.

They are (the cells in the SW part of the state) , but based off the latest data I would think they mature in AL

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People comparing this to last week need to remember that the low was much weaker than this bad boy. We’ve got a rapidly deepening low expected to go below 990 MB. That is something that in my opinion was really lacking last week. Even here at home we’ve got dews into the mid 60s far from the low

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The storm over Gorgas is developing a mid-level mesocyclone. Probably the storm to watch for now in terms of tornado potential. 

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1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

Meso out for most of MS now too, tornado watch coming.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

mcd0253.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0253
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi...parts of
   southwest Tennessee...northwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251558Z - 251830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form over the next couple hours
   over central and western Mississippi. Supercells are likely, with
   tornado threat increasing as cells mature and move northeast toward
   Alabama. Watch will be issues soon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface obs indicate the air mass
   continues to destabilize with areas of heating, as temperatures rise
   into the mid 70s F over the warm sector. This is sufficiently warm
   for surface-based parcels. Indications are that cells may develop
   both ahead of the cold front due to a very moist warm sector, and
   along the front itself. Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen
   storms, which will gain intensity and tornado potential as they
   mature and continue northeastward across MS and into AL. The threat
   may extend into southern TN as well, once the warm front lifts
   there.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

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6 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

They are (the cells in the SW part of the state) , but based off the latest data I would think they mature in AL

Yes, the surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen.  It is 1006 mb and diffuse now but expected to deepen to 996 mb by this evening in southern IL.  This may be one item to watch later today if the pressure falls do not occur as intensely as expected.  I think I am grasping at some kind of straw to mitigate what looks to be a possibly historic outbreak.

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Gensini is just going ALL in, and I mean ALL in... I don't really know but he's definitely respected so I think it's pretty noteworthy. Though I don't seriously think SPC issues a 60% sig unless we're in the midst of Super Outbreak v3 in about 3 hours (which again, is unlikely *to be clear*).

I would probably just shift the high risk a little S/SE honestly and keep the TOR risk at 30%... but I'm an amateur at best, so again, I really don't know. Anyone else can chime in on their thoughts on it (some have already).

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Yes, the surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen.  It is 1006 mb and diffuse now but expected to deepen to 996 mb by this evening in southern IL.  This may be one item to watch later today if the pressure falls do not occur as intensely as expected.  I think I am grasping at some kind of straw to mitigate what looks to be a possibly historic outbreak.

It’s a general rule of thumb in my opinion. I think back to my Great Lakes days and the June 2010 outbreak where you had a deepening low spawn one violent tornado and multiple EF-2’s through NW Ohio/SE Michigan around the midnight hour. In fact many of the better tornado outbreaks I’ve lived through were lows going through significant intensification bringing in ample winds aloft and moisture. 

Also let’s not forget we’re talking about an expected up to 3500 j/kg of energy and SRH’s in the ballpark of 500. That is simply insane

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