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The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Very close to it, but the trough still looks too + too long on this run.

I don't know what to say but I do believe that we either need the energy digging from the upper MS to slow a few hours, or we need the SW s/w to speed up a few hours. The angle of the dangle is off as it approaches the east coast which causes the s/w to maintain get away.

It also has a very suspect s/w crashing into the ridge out west at 72-78 which seems ridiculous to me given the situation. I'm tossing it for now, will await the GFS.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

well what do you think about the shot for this coming NNE up the coast instead of the crap direction the 0z nam had.

I don't see how it won't take a similar "direction" that 18z runs had. That said, the key is where the low forms. If it phases a little sooner, the low forms right along the GA coast, and probably moves nne. This would bring the low closer to or inside the BM perhaps....IF it did develop like that.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

from don s pm

Cpickett79,

Yes, you can feel free to post my thoughts. I might post in the SNE forum later (probably during the 0z GFS run).

There are still issues, but a good phase is not impossible. Right now, I think Boston is at moderate risk for 4"-8" snow with higher amounts not too far to the east. Only a small shift in the track could make a difference between let's say a light 2"-4" event or a heavier 6"-12" one in the greater Boston area. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will add support to the improvement seen on the 18z GFS. I do worry somewhat about possible p-type issues/low ratios at least for a time on the Cape and Nantucket.

Best wishes,

Don then after i thanked him he says "hopefully the 0z gfs comes in better than the 0z nam or 18z gfs"

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

18z had that too...inv trough with a little bonus OES. Shoot me now if that verifies.

I'm seeing signs somebody might pull a Dec '04 and Jan '05, perhaps with a few inches before any synoptic snow arrive.

BTW, even the euro ensembles gave you love. Luckily, as the low moves almost due north, the comma head expands nnw into srn NH. Just stop having ripping nnw winds..lol.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

from don s pm

Cpickett79,

Yes, you can feel free to post my thoughts. I might post in the SNE forum later (probably during the 0z GFS run).

There are still issues, but a good phase is not impossible. Right now, I think Boston is at moderate risk for 4"-8" snow with higher amounts not too far to the east. Only a small shift in the track could make a difference between let's say a light 2"-4" event or a heavier 6"-12" one in the greater Boston area. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will add support to the improvement seen on the 18z GFS. I do worry somewhat about possible p-type issues/low ratios at least for a time on the Cape and Nantucket.

Best wishes,

Don then after i thanked him he says "hopefully the 0z gfs comes in better than the 0z nam or 18z gfs"

That would be classic. A powerful storm that doesn't might provide p-type issues on the Cape yet can't get heavier snows past Worcester. That would be pretty unusual I would think.

But, first things first. Let's get this to at least bring snow to some of our SNE brethren.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

The naysayers will say that between 30-45 hours there is no way the gulf s/w will get squashed like that but it just happened a few days ago. We could question the w to e vorticity over MN now rotating down into the base of the trough and helping to shear out the gom s/w at 36 hours as the timing is just a tiny bit off. I'd question how at 66 hours we have side by side s/w's diving down the MS valley 100 miles apart at the moment the first two lead s/w's are in the process of phasing east of the M/A.

The thing is I'd say the NAM is totally out to lunch but as we're seeing even though a lot of details may change the general theme doesn't. IE, a scrape is a scrape, a miss is a miss.

It's one model, I think it looks a bit suspicious and it's clearly evident now there are so many pieces of energy coming down this is a disaster for the models to handle which is why they have been everywhere.

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SC48

SC48

Posted
Posted

Take a look guys at the 84 hour total for the latest nam model. It looks actually good although I know at this range it is way under done with precip. This is actually a very positive step in the right direction. Now lets get some good heavy hitting model support.:weight_lift:

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I guess if you wanted to see some sort of signs of a possible move west on the NAM this was a start...tried to dig the trough axis back east a bit and amplify things off the coast a bit...there still needs to be a ton of work done here.

it's just slowly moving toward the model consensus at this point. given it's the NAM, it'll probably catch on in the next 18 to 24 hours or so...and then maybe even over-correct for a time and weenies in NYS will unnecessarily stand at attention.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

This is getting to you; I hardly ever see you unnerved, but you have been irritable of late. lol

It's a little frustrating. It pisses me off when precip moves right through here from Maine, drops 3-5" up there, downslopes me with 0, and then proceeds to drop 1-2" at MHT-ASH...lol. I'm laughing more about it now like that Jan-Apr 2010 stretch we had. Most of the irritability in my posts was related to slow downs and praise for Marcus. That sets me off so I will warn people in advance to not troll me with that stuff. :snowman:
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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

It's a little frustrating. It pisses me off when precip moves right through here from Maine, drops 3-5" up there, downslopes me with 0, and then proceeds to drop 1-2" at MHT-ASH...lol. I'm laughing more about it now like that Jan-Apr 2010 stretch we had. Most of the irritability in my posts was related to slow downs and praise for Marcus. That sets me off so I will warn people in advance to not troll me with that stuff. :snowman:

Brian, so if i'm reading this right...you want me to say bad stuff about AmWx and really talk up Marcus and eastern?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

it's just slowly moving toward the model consensus at this point. given it's the NAM, it'll probably catch on in the next 18 to 24 hours or so...and then maybe even over-correct for a time and weenies in NYS will unnecessarily stand at attention.

At this point it's probably really hard to against a track somewhere right around the benchmark, whether it be just inside it or just outside of it. It's just a matter of what course it takes to get there...does it stay off the coast and take a more northerly turn to get there only giving eastern sections a good shot or doe sit hug the coast a bit more and take a NE turn to get there which would give more of an impact to all of SNE.

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