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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2021


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Well, we've been holding off on starting this thread, but with one decent Plains chase event (especially by mid-March standards) already in the books and a potentially significant severe event for Dixie looming on Wednesday, it's time to start gazing into crystal balls for what the rest of 2021 might bring as far as those rotating columns of air in contact with the ground goes. :twister:

I'm going to go with 1,200 tornadoes and first (perhaps only) high risk April 6. As has been hashed out in lots of good discussion on this and other forums by knowledgeable people like @andyhb and @Fred Gossage, the indicators are kind of muddled. There are some that weigh heavily towards an active and dangerous season, especially early and in Dixie (see Day 3 outlook, lol) and others that say "not so fast!" (especially towards those media outlets and Twitterheads throwing a 2011 repeat on the table). Wednesday could go HIGH but my gut tells me it stays capped at MDT and plays out with a ceiling similar to last Easter.

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2 hours ago, cheese007 said:

1400 Tornadoes, 2 high risk, first one March 17th

I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs.

A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook.

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44 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs.

A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook.

If I'm right it'll be a hell of a redemption ark given my utter failure with last month's snowstorm :lol:

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I was wondering when someone was going to throw their hat in the ring for tomorrow. There were some model solutions yesterday that had me second-guessing my call that it stays moderate, but the ominous trends have stalled or reversed themselves (slightly) in subsequent runs.

A mid-day upgrade is still possible pending day-of trends (kind of like on 4/28/14), but at the moment I'm not expecting a high risk on tomorrow's initial (or even second) Day 1 outlook.

Consider me throwing my hat in the ring for tomorrow as well. I guess it's not a bold prediction based on how strongly worded the D2 outlook was just now.

1250 tornadoes, first high risk tomorrow (March 17), and I'll just throw out another date of April 15 for a second high risk (and last of the year).

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womp womp

With the Day 2 moderate I'm starting to wonder if we end up with back-to-back high risks. Do I expect one? Not really, but with the moderate put up this early, if models continue to trend scarier, there's plenty of opportunities for a high risk to be added for Thursday as well. Yikes.

I doubt anybody would have been bold/serious enough to predict back-to-back high risks here

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  • 1 month later...

What do you think are the five most recent classic tornado alley tornado days?  It might be interesting to hear people's thoughts on this. I figure that a lot of chasers in Oklahoma and Kansas are unhappy that the patterns haven't worked out for Oklahoma and Kansas for quite a while. 

3/13/2021 - cluster of tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle

4/22/2020 - cluster of tornadoes in Oklahoma, but it wasn't much of a broad plains outbreak

4/29/2019 - a significant cluster of tornadoes in eastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri. I'm fairly sure that the general Plains storm chasers wouldn't have considered this the best day to chase, as Missouri is not the best terrain area.

5/26/2019- cluster of tornadoes in northeastern Oklahoma and in Missouri

5/21/2019 - some tornadoes near Topeka

5/17/2019- a couple of long-lived supercells in Kansas and Nebraska

5/7/2019 - Texas Panhandle tornadoes

5/1/2018 - supercells tracked many miles in Nebraska and Kansas.

5/18/2017 - definitely some tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas, but not necessarily all in the best terrain for chasing.

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IMO there hasn't really been a classic regional Plains outbreak since 5/6/2015 (reports graphic attached).

There was expected to be a more significant one ten days later (15% hatched TOR from the OK/TX border to I-80 corridor in NE on the initial Day 1 outlook) but most of the warm sector got washed out by overnight junk and the only major player of the day ended up being the Elmer/Tipton, OK-area tornado. Likewise every other would-be high end day since (most notably the high-risk 5/18/17 and 5/20/19) have 11th-hour downtrended to one "needle in a haystack" storm of the day that performs.

Not to say that there haven't been classic tornadoes/tornado days in the mid/late 2010s (especially Dodge City 5/24/16 and Chapman the next day, as well as some good western Plains/front range days in CO/WY/MT/western NE) but those have mostly been one or two storm affairs, not outbreaks in the classic sense like a 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 or even 5/29/04.

150506_rpts.png

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Agreed with the above. There's been a drought of sorts for a few years now. The two (most recent) days that I would consider a notable good plains chase day that wasn't an ugly HP mess for me were 5/24/2016 and 5/18/2017. These were more of a localized outbreak/cyclic supercell.

 

Another clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUeZku1sbU

 

 

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