TexMexWx

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  1. FWD not going guns blazing on this threat obviously, but they're still pointing out at least the potential for gusty winds/small hail with prefrontal cells, and then an overnight QLCS with a tornado threat depending on interactions with boundaries (i.e. warm front). Still a couple days out, but I guess I'm just getting a little restless with the weather here haha.
  2. Yeeeep... I am a little surprised that they dropped the severe risk altogether. Fort Worth's AFD gives me a little hope, but honestly we're just gonna have to wait and see.
  3. With our luck, D4 is also gonna be a dreary rainy/misty/cloudy day. In all seriousness, I'm intrigued by the setup. Still some uncertainties, as noted by the SPC in their outlook (cap, degree of surface-based instability, etc.)
  4. No longer snowing here. Snowed for like 2 hours but could never properly accumulate on the ground. Edit: transitioned back to very light flurries but nowhere near what it was before.
  5. Might actually accumulate on the grass at this rate. Moderate snow still falling but melting on pavement
  6. Southern Collin County, and also getting flakes here. It can't accumulate at this rate either but it's better than whatever that weak stuff was (here) last January
  7. I'd settle for an inch up here near Murphy, TX. Not sure how feasible it is, still waiting for the atmosphere to moisten up enough over here.
  8. It looks like it may already be moving into Tarrant County... so close, yet so far.
  9. Hey guys, I've been trying to follow this closely, but am not very knowledgeable at all in winter weather forecasting/model interpretation (other than staring at snow maps). I appreciate all the insight that y'all are sharing and discussing. I am currently outside any watch/warning/advisory here in Collin County, but I too want in on the action
  10. Storms off the Texas coast have some rotation already, but it also looks like they might be moving almost due north (heading towards or a little east of the Houston metro). Regardless, they have special marine warnings on them for waterspout threats.
  11. Ah... That's a good point you bring up. It would probably take multiple recon missions flown in incrementally, rather than one that remains there, in order to have data on the storm continuously for a longer period of time (assuming we do arrive at a point where having the data becomes more important for the forecast or just so we know how strong it truly is). We'll see if that's possible given the recent issues and safety matters.
  12. Watch out until midnight, 40/20 TOR probs
  13. How are SSTs and OHC in the W. Caribbean right now? Eta spent a while crawling there.
  14. Pretty sure it's got the right front quadrant nailing Puerto Cabezas right now. Unfortunate how it's smashing into the only big population center in the area. Also seen even more videos of flash flooding already.
  15. I've seen a few people mention that Gilbert and Wilma were at peak intensity even with an extra outer eyewall(?) By that, do y'all mean like at a similar stage as to where Eta currently is (or earlier, or later in the EWRC)? Not that I anticipate a pressure that low, just relative to the life cycle of this storm.