TexMexWx

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  1. Attention may shift back to the Atlantic soon, but for now, Hurricane Marie has formed in the EPAC. Of note, September went without any hurricanes in this part of the world until now. NHC forecasts it to become a major hurricane w/ a 120 kt peak in around 48-60 hours. Feel free to share any images and discussions below. Hoping for some good satellite images! I'll hand it off to those more knowledgeable now.
  2. So when does this one undergo mysterious RI?
  3. https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1307010641581027328
  4. Or we end up with a remnant low tornado outbreak here just because
  5. We've had a few confirmed tornadoes in MN and NE today, activity there will probably keep going a little longer. I hope some chasers are finally getting their nice plains tornadoes with minimal impact to other people and property
  6. Another confirmed tornado near Universal Studios. Orlando metro is having a rough night. And then we get a wind-driven 01z moderate risk for South Dakota
  7. And then Orlando gets rocked by a damaging tornado from Cristobal's outer bands. Heavily populated area and reports of roof collapses but hopefully no casualties. Edited to link a video of said tornado taken from Twitter... Debris lofted to nearly 20k feet as well per CC https://mobile.twitter.com/News6Justin/status/1269415099254673408
  8. If the Interior NW were to stop our May moderate risk drought the 2nd to last day before the end of the month, it would be fitting for 2020. ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL OR TO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms, offering destructive winds and hail, are most likely between 1 to 10 PM PDT over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades. ...Interior Northwest... Primary change is to increase tornado probabilities across parts of central OR. Categorical outlook is largely unchanged. Consideration was given for an upgrade to Moderate Risk in the western portion of the Columbia Basin. Concerns over the spatial extent of the severe wind coverage preclude further upgrading at this time. Thunderstorms will likely intensify after 19Z in a zone of strong deep lift across south-central OR, ahead of an ejecting shortwave trough. Here, robust diabatic heating is underway amid a plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points. This will support a narrow corridor of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 750-1500 J/kg from central to northeast OR. Greater buoyancy is expected to develop towards 00Z farther downstream in eastern WA to northwest MT where mean-mixing ratios are higher. Surface-based effective-inflow parcels will exist on the west side of the surface front, where low-level winds will be veering with height, hodographs strongly curved, and deep shear relatively maximized. With low-level vorticity also maximized in the frontal zone, multiple supercells are expected. Though the environment generally favors higher-based convection, initial supercells should have the best potential for large hail and a couple tornadoes between about 21-23Z. As the supercells spread rapidly north-northeast, at peak boundary-layer heating over the Columbia Basin, upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears probable. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts, some of which may be significant, given the favorable combination of steep lapse rates and moderately large buoyancy. Overall setup appears likely to yield a swath of severe wind in the Columbia Basin from north-central OR across parts of central and eastern WA before the MCS moves into British Columbia.
  9. https://mobile.twitter.com/pmarshwx/status/1266745452009046019 Appears this may be the only comparable outlook, a very unusual setup nonetheless
  10. Maybe this would be better in the general svr thread but, twin waterspouts from Galveston Bay in TX about an hour and a half ago: https://mobile.twitter.com/baldbear87/status/1266071750179196934 They kind of look like legit mesocyclonic tornadoes to me, radar presentation was also pretty much textbook. Another possibly strong waterspout is likely occurring/did occur in the same general area.
  11. As this storm continues to move SE, could it perhaps lay down a boundary that increases SRH in the vicinity, increasing the tornado threat a bit for later on in the day? Given that the boundary would be oriented from roughly NW to SE, more or less parallel to storm motions, any storm later on in the day could latch on and ride the boundary for a while.
  12. And meanwhile, in a marginal and general t-storm area... The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast and east central Colorado Northwest Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears to be underway near a mesolow along the dryline near Goodland. At least isolated supercells should evolve from this initial convection, with the potential to produce isolated very large hail and a couple of tornadoes through late evening.
  13. The PDS tornadic supercell in Texas is basically stationary, and in a localized area favorable for it to keep cranking