TexMexWx

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About TexMexWx

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  1. Reports of 8 homes destroyed (construction quality obviously pending for rating purposes), 1 fatality, and multiple injuries from there
  2. Well, I noticed a lot of SVR watches over the 10% but a TOR watch just got issued for basically the 10% hatched area. Still also found the earlier watches a bit unusual, but given how I can really only recall one tornado actually confirmed at this point in time, I guess it was the correct decision overall. Hoping we don't have any strong tornadoes overnight given that the ingredients are still favorable over southern LA/MS where the new tornado watch just got issued, going until 7 AM.
  3. Yup, am just now seeing pictures from a live stream. Looks like a wedge.
  4. Kind of wish I had gone earlier, but took some video of lightning and storm pics for the first time about 20 minutes ago. It's not really post-worthy, but I'm just glad I was able to go out for the first time this year to see a storm.
  5. 5K CAPE And yeah, these other storms developing, particularly the one near Rowlett/northeastern Dallas county have given me a couple rumbles of thunder.
  6. I'm gonna be watching the track of that left split, but it should pass to my southeast.
  7. Wonder if the updraft will be able to sustain itself, especially with some dry air still in the lower levels of the atmosphere per the recent FWD sounding
  8. Taking the HRRR verbatim, it would be ~6-8 PM. Anyways, the more agitated CU seems like it would pass south of you and I directly (and right as I say this the watch gets issued including us lol)
  9. NOW the HRRR wants to fire storms off in/near the Metroplex, so I guess we should watch for that. I remember hearing yesterday that the monster supercell that ended up going through Bryan/College Station didn't really start getting picked up by the models until only a couple hours before, so I'm wondering if the same thing happens again.
  10. Also a 10% hatched TOR added for parts of MS/AL in the updated SPC outlook
  11. Lots of reports of golf ball sized hail there
  12. Well, yeah, I do agree. It wouldn't surprise me if we have a Wylie 2016 repeat or a cap bust at this point. Both seem well within the realm of possibility lol. Definitely is a nasty supercell pounding College Station right now, and many HRRR runs earlier showed like nothing firing up there until the storm had formed pretty much, iirc
  13. Still doesn't really convect here in the metro though (not that I want a supercell with baseball-sized hail roaring through DFW), so I'm just wondering what's up with that. Upper 80s surface temps, >4000 CAPE, and little CINH, is there something I'm missing? Of course, have to see what other CAMs say, but HRRR has been the most notorious at bombing areas with convection, so I feel like there's at least some significance in it not really showing much here for multiple runs. Edit: flow is pretty bleh, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to know if it's typical for that to just suppress convention entirely.
  14. "AN ENHANCED RISK WAS ADDED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. IN RESPONSE, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI."
  15. 70/40 Tornado probabilities on the watch issued just now