TexMexWx

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  1. And meanwhile, in a marginal and general t-storm area... The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast and east central Colorado Northwest Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears to be underway near a mesolow along the dryline near Goodland. At least isolated supercells should evolve from this initial convection, with the potential to produce isolated very large hail and a couple of tornadoes through late evening.
  2. The PDS tornadic supercell in Texas is basically stationary, and in a localized area favorable for it to keep cranking
  3. TOG in Garza County, TX, SW of the town of Post, had/has a PDS on it. I believe that's the first PDS this month? Looking like it'll stay south of Post itself
  4. Reports of a confirmed tornado on the ground west of Bowie, TX
  5. Got a TOR warning in KS and another in NE too
  6. Yeah, showing a BWER and a more intense couplet, I think.
  7. Yeah, looking like intermittent touchdowns(?) for the time being. The storm made a hard right and has a nice presentation on radar.
  8. If the immediate DFW area were in that watch, we'd be on the far eastern edge. As they mention that an increasing tornado threat may materialize in the evening, would that lead to a new WW a bit farther east later on (perhaps including more of the DFW area)?
  9. Mesoscale Discussion 0668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Areas affected...Portions of North-Central Texs Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221755Z - 221930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is expected within the hour somewhere near Young County, TX. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have persisted along the western portion of an outflow boundary from the morning MCS. This boundary currently extends from near Childress to the northern suburbs of Dallas/Fort Worth. Temperatures south of this boundary have warmed into the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s yielding MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. This boundary has slowed its southern motion recently and may start to lift back north slightly within the next hour or two as it encounters stronger southerly flow ahead of the boundary. The combination of short residence time along the boundary and dry air entrainment have stunted storm development along the boundary thus far with evidence of a few orphaned anvils. However, SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has eroded near the boundary. Therefore, it shouldn't be long before storms start to develop. The most likely area for initial storm formation is in Young County, TX where convergence is maximized along the outflow boundary. This is further supported by the 17Z WoFS which shows a maturing storm in this area between 18Z and 19Z. The strong instability, combined with effective shear around 35-40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis supports some supercellular structures. Mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km per 12Z FWD sounding will support the threat for very large hail with these storms, especially initially. Stretching of low-level vorticity in the region of the outflow boundary may provide a brief tornado threat this afternoon, but weakening low-level flow (per FWS and FDR VWP) will be a limiting factor to the overall tornado threat this afternoon. However, later this evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen substantially which will enlarge hodographs and lead to an increasing tornado threat.
  10. Several reports of landspouts/tornadoes around the CO/KS border
  11. Ah, thank you. I see, and again we're shown how much subtle details matter. Looks like the localized backing of winds and enlargement of the hodographs (among some other ingredients you mentioned of course) really helped turn that storm into a powerful tornadic supercell. And honestly 35 knots of bulk shear sounds like more shear than there's been in most of the setups so far this month, I could be wrong though.
  12. Deadly EF3 tornado confirmed from Louisiana yesterday... The atmosphere can really surprise us. Does anyone know what the environment in that area was like at the time of the tornado(es) there? I basically paid no attention to it considering it had been a general t-storm risk area
  13. For that storm https://mobile.twitter.com/BraxBanksOKWX/status/1262205919586377730
  14. Now got a tornado warning south of Omaha, NE
  15. Wowie, tornado warnings for 5 different cells/areas of rotation in the Arklatex region now