EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 in the end, this is the only panel that counts on this run ain't sayin' its right, but it is ugly Why does this look familiar? Oh cause it just happened this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 nam has snow into RIC and DCA by xmas morning which is really fast and NOT euro like at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If something like this Nam run verefies, it would be the most epic defeat for a model (The euro) since i've been following weather. 6 straight runs with an N.C. snowstorm -- right in the euro's alleged 4-6 day sweet spot -- and now it's possible we get nada. Down goes Tyson!!!! After the 12z Euro yesterday I was ready to jump on board for an epic event....and when I saw the trends of the 18z package I got even more excited but with the euro showing signs of shifting and the way the rest of the 00z models have sped up the southern stream energy some I have my doubts. I still think where I am in Northern NJ will get warning criteria snowfall but not to the extent of an epic blizzard the ec has been showing. I think this Nam run was a step in the right direction in terms of the location of the low and holding back the S/W energy longer but missing the phase is the same thing that killed us last week. I'm not going to get too excited without seeing the rest of the 12z package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Good point gk. I was hoping the short range models would get pulled to the Euro dream solution instead it looks like a compromise may be in order I'm hoping they all fall in line too. The NAM is flat out ugly, would it even pull back in to hit SNE after the end of the run? I'd really be happy with a Euro/GFS compromise, but I'm 8 miles from the Atlantic, so I'm one of the few people that would benefit from it. On to the GFS...let's hope it holds serve at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Must wait for the GFS and the Euro again. The NAM didn't look bad on early frames, it just kind of sucked later. Unfortunately for my area, this is not going to be our storm regardless; the phase is way too late and the OP Euro has been the western outlier the whole time with little model support. Consistency doesnt necessarily mean accuracy unfortunately 4+ days before the event. Oh well, Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That run of the NAM looks more like a clipper dragging a cold front than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 nam has snow into RIC and DCA by xmas morning Dave -- looked to me like it got eaten up by the mountains and fell apart before it got here. What are you seeing that I'm not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sorry not trusting the NAM this far out! You shouldn't either. 12z GFS and EURO will be what I'm looking at. It is time to start paying attention to the GFS within this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the Nam verified, I would say that the defeat would rival that of the one in 2001. I wasn't following the weather as closely then but from what I remember, they closed the schools a day in advance for two days and we saw a coating here in northern NJ. I was quite upset as I imagine others were as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's just the NAM so no reason to jump off bridges yet. The solution is so awful and so horrific it does make you wonder a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Given the consistency of the ensemble guidance and early indication of an evolving Euro-GFS consensus, I'm not sure this run of the NAM will wind up being correct. If the GFS holds or comes a little west, that would probably ease some of the concern that has erupted in the wake of the NAM's bleak solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the Nam verified, I would say that the defeat would rival that of the one in 2001. I wasn't following the weather as closely then but from what I remember, they closed the schools a day in advance for two days and we saw a coating here in northern NJ. I was quite upset as I imagine others were as well. I don't really understand how it would truly be so dramatic, though. I think most were inclined to thinking this would be a big storm because the euro showed it that way for several model runs. I think we are really ignoring how pretty much NO other models showed a BIG storm at all ! Or, at least nothing that made an impact on anything other than the ocean ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Given the consistency of the ensemble guidance and early indication of an evolving Euro-GFS consensus, I'm not sure this run of the NAM will wind up being correct. If the GFS holds or comes a little west, that would probably ease some of the concern that has erupted in the wake of the NAM's bleak solution. Agreed. Given the 00z/06z GFS ensemble data... with many members west of the op... that's normally a good sign that the 12z op will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If something like this Nam run verefies, it would be the most epic defeat for a model (The euro) since i've been following weather. 6 straight runs with an N.C. snowstorm -- right in the euro's alleged 4-6 day sweet spot -- and now it's possible we get nada. Down goes Tyson!!!! in order for the euro to have been right with it's epic MA bomb, everything would have had to have been just right. In order for the nam to verify, everything just has to be. Smart money goes on the nam. It's becoming more clear that building a truly good storm, whether its for the MW or EC, is incredibly difficult to do without a prominent southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM looked really good through 54... pretty strong separated southern wave, and a strong midwest vort diving south... but by 66 and beyond, it just looked wierd with the evolution and attempted (and missed) phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the Nam verified, I would say that the defeat would rival that of the one in 2001. I wasn't following the weather as closely then but from what I remember, they closed the schools a day in advance for two days and we saw a coating here in northern NJ. I was quite upset as I imagine others were as well. how would it be a defeat, we are 72 hours out and bascially no met worth their salt has hyped huge accumulations as of yet. its just a bunch of people hugging the euro to death and saying the GFS and all the other models are not handling it right. I am shocked that the HPC was so dismissive of every other model but the Euro and if we get a 2-4 snowfall thats not so bad and its not a failure I dont think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agreed. Given the 00z/06z GFS ensemble data... with many members west of the op... that's normally a good sign that the 12z op will follow suit. yup strongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's wait to see the rest of the 12z package. When the 00z models last night began to speed up the southern stream I thought to myself thats not a good sign since the EC...our best scenario has been lagging behind the rest of the guidance. I'm still pretty certain that a track west of the 06z GFS will verify and that areas from NJ on northeastward see warning criteria snowfall but it sure is dissapointing considering what this could have become. As for my friends in the MA...hope things trend west...still plenty of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Trends In a Nutshell SRN stream Slower and further south = Good NRN stream digs later and further east= Very Bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 how would it be a defeat, we are 72 hours out and bascially no met worth their salt has hyped huge accumulations as of yet. its just a bunch of people hugging the euro to death and saying the GFS and all the other models are not handling it right. I am shocked that the HPC was so dismissive of every other model but the Euro and if we get a 2-4 snowfall thats not so bad and its not a failure I dont think This is a bit overstated (and was driven by a single forecaster/shift). There was plenty of blending with ensemble information.....and at the time, the GFS did seem to be too far out to sea, but that's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM looked fine and as soon as it got past 48-54 into its horror range it began to get the ugly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 910 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010 VALID 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010 ...CONTINUED WET ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUN-MON... THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING INTENSE POLAR JET STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATES DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEFORE REAMPLIFYING TOWARD A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN/EASTERN CONUS RESPECTIVELY BY DAY 7. ACROSS THE WEST...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...DETERMINING THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL EVENTS REMAINS IN QUESTION. SOLUTION SPREAD IS ALREADY ABOVE A COMFORTABLE LEVEL TO BE PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT ENTERING DAY 3 WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INTENSE SPLIT-TROUGH NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM WHAT CROSSED THE WEST YESTERDAY ENTERING THE REGION. THE 00-06Z GFS LIE NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH...WHILE ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKED FLOW DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTING THAT SLOWER IS BETTER. IN FACT...THE 00Z UKMET WHICH INDICATES A SEPARATED AND SOMEWHAT MATURE CYCLONE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE LONGWAVE FLOW...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SLIGHTLY WEAKER/FASTER BUT STILL PLAUSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...WITH NEUTRAL/ZONAL FLOW SPREADING INTO THE ENTIRE WEST FOR ABOUT 48 HRS BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAMPLIFYING TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHWEST BUT OTHERWISE MERGES NICELY WITH IT BY END OF DAY 7...WITH ALL GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS IN PHASE WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS. IF THEY ARE CORRECT...THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SNOW STORM FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY DAY 7. ACROSS THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD...WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE 06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...BUT HITS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN...RECOMMEND CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE. JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM looked fine and as soon as it got past 48-54 into its horror range it began to get the ugly solution. Yeah I definitely agree. The early frames is when the NAM is the most useful -- I don't buy the 4 lows crap later in the model. My real fear is how it handled the northern stream throughout the model. It's timing of the s/w was actually better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM looked fine and as soon as it got past 48-54 into its horror range it began to get the ugly solution. the writing was on the wall at 54 with the sw weakening and left behind in the w. gulf. It also causes the ridge out west and ahead to be less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM looked fine and as soon as it got past 48-54 into its horror range it began to get the ugly solution. And just as important it's fluctuating wildly. It wouldn't sway me one way or the other until after the gfs/ggem and euro. Up until 48 or so I thought it was heading to a hybrid euro/gfs solution. It's too far out to pick apart details until after the rest of the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the writing was on the wall at 54 with the sw weakening and left behind in the w. gulf. It also causes the ridge out west and ahead to be less amplified. That sudden SE kick it takes is the problem after 36 hours, if it simply continued on a due east trajectory the thing would phase like the second coming of 1899. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't anyone care the Ukie and Canadian are well out to sea? I mean these are not junk models. Seems to me that in torms of past they were always at least in the ballpark, often the kie a little too far east and GGEM west. But they are not in the zip code of a snowstorm here. No worries about that? To me things are not very good right now. Almost going quickly the way of last week. Euro decent hit, GFS scraper, everything else is not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 sorry this imake NO sense I have no idea why after syaing he is going to follow the 6z GFS he then says this http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72120.gif looks like a band of 0.50 to 1.25 to me ...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE 06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't anyone care the Ukie and Canadian are well out to sea? I mean these are not junk models. Seems to me that in torms of past they were always at least in the ballpark, often the kie a little too far east and GGEM west. But they are not in the zip code of a snowstorm here. No worries about that? To me things are not very good right now. Almost going quickly the way of last week. Euro decent hit, GFS scraper, everything else is not even close. The Canadian yes....very much so...the UKMET no because its been horrid all month, the UKMET right now is likely to be poor all winter, I've learned that over the years that when a model generally isn't picking things up well in December it tends to struggle the rest of the season...the SREFs have also been struggling mightily as well...more on inconsistency...the UKMET has been consistent on its solutions most of the month but has been grossly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's just the NAM so no reason to jump off bridges yet. The solution is so awful and so horrific it does make you wonder a bit though. well, NAM's been ots so far and the DGEX has followed suit I have always said I'm a firm believer in pattern repetition last weekend's storm was the first potential threat for the east coast this year and it went ots one storm does not establish a pattern, but in my little wx world, 2 does so I'll give it some time, but my gut on this storm has done a 180 in the past 20 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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