jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 nam has initalized. Already stronger and farther north with the 500 vort then the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 hour 12 on 12z vs hr 18 on 6z .....still north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 s/w looks slightly stronger and ridging a smidge better hour 12 on 12z vs hr 18 on 6z .....still north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why does the low re open after initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 15 hours, the southern energy is much slower than 0Z NAM. H5 trough has a positive tilt. If it also slips further south, this should allow it to tap the gulf more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 at hr 18 much strong compared to 6z and about to close off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 24 closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 get your eyes checked soon hour 12 on 12z vs hr 18 on 6z .....still north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Although slight the confluence is moving a little faster up here. Dakotas s/w slight timing change as well. Thanks for the maps jc Also wonder how much that raob mattered last night now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z ....24 hour NAM looks identical to 6z 30 hour GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks to me like the southern energy is diving pretty far south. Phase is happening slower than 0Z. Didn't the bullish runs of the Euro keep the southern energy further south and more intact like the 12Z NAM is doing now. Although, it looks like (at 42 hours) the northern energy might outrun the southern energy and miss the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks to me like the southern energy is diving pretty far south. Phase is happening slower than 0Z. Didn't the bullish runs of the Euro keep the southern energy further south and more intact like the 12Z NAM is doing now. I think this will end up pretty good for Balt-Wash. area. The alignment of the n/s diving into MT is much better too. Across the board it's better. Doesn't mean it will turn out better in the end but it's a better setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 looks a bit slower at 42....low forming a bit further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't look that great to me...maybe a little worse that 6z...northern branch isn't dropping in enough SO FAR..but I know the perils of predicting a model run, especially the NAM, so lets wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't look that great to me...maybe a little worse that 6z...northern branch isn't dropping in enough SO FAR..but I know the perils of predicted a model run, especially the NAM, so lets wait and see Looks that way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't look that great to me...maybe a little worse that 6z...northern branch isn't dropping in enough SO FAR..but I know the perils of predicted a model run, especially the NAM, so lets wait and see surface depiction is anemic too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 48, there is somewhat of a lack of interaction between the n/s and s/s energy.. They seem somewhat detached.. Even though the s/s shortwave is holding back, we need to see that northern stream energy to come down and start to amplify things.. Heights are still flat in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 too many vorts to the north for this thing to consolidate it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If you take a look upstairs (IE: 200 and 300 mb charts) everything appears disjointed and strung out. Unless things change quickly on this run, I am doubtful people in the MA will like the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 starting to remind me of last weekends storm when the models began to show that strung out look with three days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 starting to remind me of last weekends storm when the models began to show that strung out look with three days to go That is the feeling that I've had with this storm for a few days now.....Never too comfortable relying on just one model to show a significant snowstorm. If you've noticed, even the Euro has gone from a big storm for all, then to most, now to some...Next....? Don Sutherland had a great post on the forum a couple days ago regarding the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Debacle on the NAM...southern s/w misses the phase and is left orphaned at 54. We're cooked down here in the MA..but is there still time for the northern stream to dig in for NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ENSO will always win out over synoptic climatology. and which of your research papers showed that and when were the publish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Debacle on the NAM...southern s/w misses the phase and is left orphaned at 54. We're cooked down here in the MA..but is there still time for the northern stream to dig in for NE? dont see that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 dont see that at all is it me but look at the surface low on hr 60 of the 12z nam, its in the upstate of SC. The 6z at hr 66 showed it off the coast of savanah. Seems significant shift west. could be my bleary eyes though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, from beauty queen to crackhead. Thanks Euro I'm really not sure I'd use the NAM at the end of its range to discount the Euro. Until the Euro bails on itself, it retains more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 in the end, this is the only panel that counts on this run ain't sayin' its right, but it is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Good point gk. I was hoping the short range models would get pulled to the Euro dream solution instead it looks like a compromise may be in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OK now I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 After the 12z Euro yesterday I was ready to jump on board for an epic event....and when I saw the trends of the 18z package I got even more excited but with the euro showing signs of shifting and the way the rest of the 00z models have sped up the southern stream energy some I have my doubts. I still think where I am in Northern NJ will get warning criteria snowfall but not to the extent of an epic blizzard the ec has been showing. I think this Nam run was a step in the right direction in terms of the location of the low and holding back the S/W energy longer but missing the phase is the same thing that killed us last week. I'm not going to get too excited without seeing the rest of the 12z package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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