Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,782
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Avon
    Newest Member
    Avon
    Joined

Beware the Ides of March (and into the 16th)


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

Looks like a wintry system worthy of discussion, with all precip types possible.  As mentioned in the other thread, I would think any freezing rain threat would be most significant on elevated objects given the warm spell and lack of much cold air at the surface ahead of the storm.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see.

I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa.  It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip.  The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain.  One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see.

I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa.  It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip.  The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain.  One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts.

I'd just about totally discount the FZRA threat, and I'm not big on the sleet potential either.

Probably will be a mostly snow or rain event.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'd just about totally discount the FZRA threat, and I'm not big on the sleet potential either.

Probably will be a mostly snow or rain event.

Completely disagree, especially near/south of I-80.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Completely disagree, especially near/south of I-80.  

With colder air not filtering in until right before things are getting going, there isn’t going to be sufficient time for the already mild surfaces/ground to catch up. Add in that’s it’s noting going to get colder than the upper 20’s most likely either.

 

Maybeee elevated surfaces towards the end, but that’s a stretch depending on how long precip actually lasts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

With colder air not filtering in until right before things are getting going, there isn’t going to be sufficient time for the already mild surfaces/ground to catch up. Add in that’s it’s noting going to get colder than the upper 20’s most likely either.

 

Maybeee elevated surfaces towards the end, but that’s a stretch depending on how long precip actually lasts.

Trees, power lines, metal signs, etc should cool off pretty quickly in tandem with air temps imo.  I would expect some glazing on those.  Although it's mild in the lead-in, we are not torching as much as earlier this week. 

The thing that is more of a concern to me as far as getting efficient accretion is heavier precip rates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If you bet against warm air aloft, you might win 10% of the time.

In no way, shape or form do I buy the HRRR around here.

Every event this winter that had mixing to start had disappointing results for snowfall for this area, so I'm gonna bet against seeing much snow and play the pessimistic role for this one lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The NAM is much different than the HRRR.... bupkis for me or cyclone.

This one and the next event around the 18th are throw-away events.  Minor stat padding at best for snowfall.  No convective potential which sucks for mid March.  Basically it's looking like the whole stretch from late Feb to late March is a month worth of down time for anything of interest of any kind.  Hopefully something of interest shows up sometime in April.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

didnt know where to put this

 

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
504 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...HISTORIC AND CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND...

...WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY...TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

...CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow. Total snow
  accumulations of 20 to 30 inches with local amounts up to 50
  inches above 8000 feet elevation. Wind gusts up to 60 MPH.
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

I am sure most are aware of the snowstorm in the front range of the Rockies.  I found a time lapse from Cheyenne, Wy this morning. Make sure you wait till the very end to see what this morning looks like.

https://webcams.windy.com/webcams/public/embed/player/1456851101/lifetime?token=see.cam

meh. alek's pics from a month ago put these to shame. :snowing:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...