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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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Should get an MCV or two out of this to help kick things off early tomorrow afternoon and also locally enhance the severe threat. Pretty big timing difference in hi-res and globals. The AM upper low will have to get out of the way to achieve sufficient instability, which seems doable. Curious to see how this interacts with the outflow/front across WI or northern IL too. 

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00Z HRRR is strongly suggestive of some fun along or just south of the I-80 corridor in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Of course, this would land during the only 3-day period in which I have to work from last Wednesday through this coming Thursday. Took off last Wednesday/Thursday, Friday/Saturday were my "weekend" since I worked today. So it'll be work tomorrow, get off at noon, race to the target area, chase, go home and go back to work at 3AM Tuesday. Then I have Wednesday/Thursday off since I'm working next weekend.

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16 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

5% tor risk now brought up as far north as I-80 in northern IL in morning outlook due to approaching MCV.

looks like its by Kansas city now..some spin to it

If winds can back ahead of it may be a few surprises if cells form ahead of it on WAA arm

perhaps a bit south of models (me to I-72)

 

 

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It isn't going to take that much heating to achieve the convective temp seen on local upper air soundings this morning (probably by noon in IA/WI). That convective trigger temp is anywhere from 69-74F (72F on the DVN sounding below). It may not even need to reach that high to get things going with the two MCVs approaching, a number of surface convergence areas and differential heating. 

1453667577_ScreenShot2021-05-03at9_17_02AM.thumb.png.28c369ca05ad4ca29d330788b0aa9a73.png

Faster mid-level flow is found just S of the NW Missouri MCV and should make it up to about I-80, so that may be the limit to the potential for more organized severe wx. I am personally 100% ok w/ a garden variety storm at this point. Storm motions will not be all that fast so some of us will pick up a prolonged downpour.

1701335418_ScreenShot2021-05-03at9_19_54AM.thumb.png.214618ffbc04a3ab937da15d83c0868b.png

 

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As per usual, this sets up in the most annoying possible place for me - at just about the fringe of how far I can go on a work night and still get home in time to get a couple hours' sleep, and not good enough to really get my adrenaline flowing, but with enough conditional potential to keep me biting my nails watching the radar if I stay home.

Some of that CAM output has been a little eye-opening, but the cloud cover is hanging tough across the area of interest. *Edit* Although as @Chicago Storm alluded to, some clearing does appear to be pushing in now. Also of concern though is that the HRRR seems to be depicting a rather cluster-y/bowing storm mode with the early evening activity along and north of I-72.

It's like every setup is determined to remind me that I can never forgive myself for blowing Rochelle day.

 

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The area to watch today is definitely across C IL, as a few others have mentioned. An MCV that has been moving eastward along the IA/MO border this morning will continue eastward across C IL this afternoon and evening.

The biggest question for today has been cloud cover, which had been locked in place across the main focus area. However, more recently there has been a growing wedge of clearing pushing northward across NE MO and is now progressing into W IL as well. If that holds, coupled with the MCV and decent instability/moisture/shear, could have a solid threat across C IL this afternoon and evening.

We’ll see how it progresses...


.

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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The area to watch today is definitely across C IL, as a few others have mentioned. An MCV that has been moving eastward along the IA/MO border this morning will continue eastward across C IL this afternoon and evening.

The biggest question for today has been cloud cover, which had been locked in place across the main focus area. However, more recently there has been a growing wedge of clearing pushing northward across NE MO and is now progressing into W IL as well. If that holds, coupled with the MCV and decent instability/moisture/shear, could have a solid threat across C IL this afternoon and evening.

We’ll see how it progresses...


 

I really haven't been following this ultra closely so far... Is there any chance if supercell development or is this one of those linear mode days?

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I really haven't been following this ultra closely so far... Is there any chance if supercell development or is this one of those linear mode days?

There definitely could be some supercell structures.

The best severe potential will likely end up between I-74 and I-72 in W-C IL

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There definitely could be some supercell structures.

The best severe potential will likely end up between I-74 and I-72 in W-C IL

Sounds good, appreciate the advice! The chase is on. Any additional advice or suggestions along the way would be greatly appreciated...

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Sounds good, appreciate the advice! The chase is on. Any additional advice or suggestions along the way would be greatly appreciated...

Good luck! If I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably bite on today.

Of course, if I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably be a Bears fan, so... :whistle:

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I'll be out chasing today, probably along i74 or US136. For those chasing west of the IL river, be aware of the river crossings in the area so you don't get trapped or miss out on a storm. Also anything roughly west of the Jacksonville, IL area to close to the Mississippi river is a 100% dead zone for verizon reception.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0208 PM CDT MON MAY 03 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 031908Z - 032015Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD EASTERN MISSOURI INTO  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AND WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR  
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  
  
DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY  
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
DRAPED FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MO. THIS IS ALSO  
JUST AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV THAT IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCIN IS  
DECREASING ACROSS THE CLEARING WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE  
WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S/UPPER 80S AND DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING  
IS ERODING REMAINING INHIBITION. INSOLATION, COMBINED WITH LOW TO  
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM, IS  
SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE  
MOST FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO EASTERN MO/WESTERN  
IL, THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME AS CLEARING  
CONTINUES.   
  
30-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT  
AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MCV (NOTED  
IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS CENTRAL MO) SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS  
WITHIN A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH ESRH VALUES NEAR 150  
M2/S2, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT - PARTICULARLY IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE MCV ACROSS CENTRAL IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE  
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS  
POTENTIAL IS LOW). REGARDLESS, A WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS  
AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.  
  
..MOORE/GRAMS.. 05/03/2021  

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