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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Certainly not anything like what is going on in Dixie, but watching Saturday for some activity.  Looks like one of those little remind-you-of-the-coming-season setups.

Yes it does.  Everything happens west of Ohio and we get the rainy leftovers or it makes to the I-75 corridor and falls apart :axe:  I obviously have high expectations for this season so far here in Central Ohio.

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Took awhile to clear out here, not sure it'll pan out IMBY.

 

Give me some thunder and I'll be happy.

 

mcd0281.gif.852a3fe8691a0470a742ba9397b81eff.gif

 

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...South-central Missouri into western Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271934Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along ahead
   of cold front this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and hail
   will be possible with any strong storms. A weather watch is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data showed deepening
   cumulus towers located along and east of a diffuse cold front and
   wave cyclone stretching from northeast Oklahoma into southern
   Missouri. Deepening of the initial convective updrafts and eventual
   thunderstorm development is likely over the next couple of hours as
   the lower atmosphere continues to destabilize ahead of a mid-level
   trough across the upper Midwest. SPC mesoanalysis shows surface
   dewpoints in the 50s F overlain by mid-level lapse rates approaching
   8 C/km are supporting 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across much southern
   Missouri. Surface obs and regional VWPs show strongly veered surface
   flow with long but mostly straight line hodographs. Deep-layer shear
   near 60 kts should favor a mix of splitting cells and short line
   segments capable of damaging wind gusts and severe hail. With much
   of the mid-level flow parallel to the slow moving surface front and
   high LCLs favoring stronger cold pool development, storm mergers and
   upscale growth with a greater threat for damaging wind gusts appears
   likely as storms move northeast toward western Illinois later
   tonight. A weather watch may be needed in the next couple of hours
   for the threat of severe hail/wind through this evening.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/27/2021

 

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ILX

 

Quote
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

A surface low centered over eastern Iowa this afternoon will
continue to lift east-northeast into Michigan tonight. A warm front
is positioned from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with a
cold front stretched from the center of the low to the southern
Plains. Showers and storms are ongoing across the Illinois River
Valley region as of 3 PM, tied to 850 mb moisture transport and WAA.
As the cold front continues to push east over the next few hours,
storms are anticipated to become reinforced. A special sounding
released at ILX at 18Z depicted mid-level lapse rates between 7-8
C/km, 0-6 km shear of 80+ kts, and 0-3 km around 40 kts. Instability
has grown since the release of the sounding, with SPC mesoscale
analysis depicting about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE spread across a
good portion of the area as dewpoints are sitting in the low to mid
50s. Because of this, strong to severe storms remain possible later
this afternoon into this evening - primary time frame between 5 and
10 pm. Straight-line hodographs indicate storm motion will be mostly
parallel to the front and suggest that storms should develop into
line segments. Primary threats appear to be large hail and damaging
winds. At this time, low-level shear does not look supportive of
tornadoes, though it cannot be entirely ruled out. Precipitation
amounts will be on the lighter side due to the progressiveness of
the front. QPF totals of around a 0.50" or less is expected, though
locally higher amounts will be possible in any strong storms as
PWATs are near 1.00" and warm cloud depths are over 10k feet.

 

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I-70 and south is getting it today.

Yeah, SPC could have done without the NW bump of the slight to along the IL river here. Storm that did pass through was easily covered by the marginal, HRRR did well with it staying to my south

 

I'm severe weather starved here

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16 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Yeah, SPC could have done without the NW bump of the slight to along the IL river here. Storm that did pass through was easily covered by the marginal, HRRR did well with it staying to my south

 

I'm severe weather starved here

Just a general comment... it seems like severe setups this year (not that there have been very many yet in this region) haven't really struggled in the mid level lapse rate department for the most part.  If this continues deeper into spring as moisture return improves with northward extent, then it could raise the stakes in this sub farther down the road.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Severe warning now:ph34r::ph34r:

20210327_220446.jpg

That should verify here in Lebanon just for the hail. Came down pretty good for awhile. Most of it was dime sized or smaller but there was some nickel sized stuff in the middle of the hail core. The lawn was about 3/4'd covered by the hail.

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I spend all day yesterday at Ben Davis HS photographing Indiana Percussion State Finals. I was pretty oblivious to weather let along severe weather possibilities.  Headed home and could see a pretty impressive lightning storm ahead as I made my was up 421 back to Kokomo.  Crossed 32 and the rain kicked in.  A couple of miles later I ran into the hail core.  Oh my.  Nickle sized hail, zero visibility, no shelter (for the car), it was deafening inside the car.  (I was just in a gym with percussion for 10 hours so I know loud!)  It lasted for 5 minutes or so.  

I made it to Kirklin and pulled under an abandon gas station canopy.  No damage to the car.  Whew.  Double checked today and still good.  

HAIL-RADAR.PNG

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  • 2 weeks later...

Surprising comment in the Chicago AFD this Friday evening for Saturday in our region.....


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
649 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...
310 PM CDT

Tonight through Sunday...

[Tonight through Saturday Night]

Main Highlights:
* Potential for patchy fog overnight tonight near and north of
  I-80, some of which may be dense, particularly far northern IL

* A period of steady and at times heavy rain for the entire area
  during the day on Saturday

* Chance for isolated to widely scattered embedded low-topped
  thunderstorms toward mid day through Saturday afternoon

* Approximately 4-6 hour window mid day Saturday through the mid
  to possibly late afternoon with a lower end (low confidence, low
  coverage) surface based strong-severe risk. Potential exists for
  low-topped supercells in the warm sector lifting north with a
  warm front, with a brief tornado and damaging wind threat.
 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Looks like a shot at isolated to perhaps scattered t’storms in the area overnight/early tomorrow morning, as the disturbance currently in the S Plains moves through. If any activity does occur, (severe or not) should have hail potential given the modeled instability and lapse rates.


.

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Confirmed tornado in eastern IL.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
740 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Douglas County in east central Illinois...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 740 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Arcola, or 10
  miles south of Tuscola, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

* The tornado will be near...
  Arcola around 745 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 203 and 208.

 

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20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

SPC is gonna need to stretch the marginal up into eastern IA/northern IL for tomorrow.  CAMs have been pretty consistent in indicating decent convection over the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with 1000-2000J/KG cape and respectable low-level wind shear.

Yep. 3KM NAM hardly breaks out anything over the "prime" risk area but plenty of storms over the upper Midwest. HRRR concurs but is more robust with development in the current Slight/hatched area as well.

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SPC is gonna need to stretch the marginal up into eastern IA/northern IL for tomorrow.  CAMs have been pretty consistent in indicating decent convection over the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with 1000-2000J/KG cape and respectable low-level wind shear.

Yea, I’m not sure why they didn’t have a marginal that far north originally on the day 3, and really have no idea why they haven’t brought it north on the day 2.

 

Depending on how things continue to look, might even need a slight risk across E IA/NW-W IL.

 

Best activity will end up west of here, but activity might still have an isolated severe potential when it gets into this area.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yea, I’m not sure why they didn’t have a marginal that far north originally on the day 3, and really have no idea why they haven’t brought it north on the day 2.

 

Depending on how things continue to look, might even need a slight risk across E IA/NW-W IL.

 

Best activity will end up west of here, but activity might still have an isolated severe potential when it gets into this area.

There we have it on the Day 2 update. Slight goes to about the I-80 corridor, marginal with 2% tornado to the WI/IL border.

Confoundingly, the 12Z 3KM NAM is much less impressive with the environment over E IA/N IL tomorrow evening than is its coarser cousin. The latter makes it look like a definite local chase day with a nice little 996MB mesolow over eastern IA. The 3K, not so much.

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