SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Looking really mild rest of March into April especially highs. Mostly low to mid 60s with probably some near 70F readings on a couple days or 10-15+ AN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 1 hour ago, psv88 said: 23* this morning. Probably get a few more freezes out here. In the city now to get my second vaccine shot. Nice day to walk around with the kids Good luck with your shot. My brother is taking his wife for her 2nd shot this morning at Javits as well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Nice day today. Current temp 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 57/28 split today. No clouds. No complaints from me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustWeatherWx Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 8 hours ago, uncle W said: If this year has no measurable snow in March but a little in April it would be only the third time that has happened in NYC...I think there is only two winters that had a great February with major storms with no measurable snow in March but measurable snow in April...1894 and 1921... The truth is without the mid season / well timed SSW it'd likely have been a big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 The March low dewpoint and underperforming rainfall pattern continues. Newark Liberty SUNNY 60 13 15 W7 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.75 1958 0.14 -0.14 T MONTH TO DATE 0.92 2.59 -1.67 2.24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Gfs once again showing a cold shot at the end of this month. Some snow would be nice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs once again showing a cold shot at the end of this month. Some snow would be nice. Who wants colder temps and snow after a day like today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now developing. Tomorrow will again be fair and mild. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. There is potential for near record to record warm conditions to occur in eastern Canada on Monday and Tuesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +5.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.469 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 could be New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 High for the day was 62 here. Current temp 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Normally I'd say temps would soar next few days to 70+ but the slight easterly flow will probably cap temps around 60-62F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs once again showing a cold shot at the end of this month. Some snow would be nice. The same GFS that had the snowstorm for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The same GFS that had the snowstorm for Friday? Troll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 We have seen snow in late March and early April in the past so its not out of the question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 I'm tracking this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm tracking this Lol that will be gone at 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 8:08 AM, donsutherland1 said: It’s too soon for me to make any calls about snowfall for April. I do think this will be the last chance for snowfall in March given the forecast pattern and strong consensus on the guidance about warmer conditions for the remainder of the month beginning Sunday. I'm wondering if we will follow the script of 2009-10 since that is another winter we've been mimicking. ENSO doesn't seem to matter for our extremely hot summers and this mild/dry spring pattern is very reminiscent as a lead up to some of our hottest summers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: Lol that will be gone at 06z he's like a security guard that's guarding a house after it's already been robbed in the hopes that the thieves will come back lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now developing. Tomorrow will again be fair and mild. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. There is potential for near record to record warm conditions to occur in eastern Canada on Monday and Tuesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +5.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.469 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 could be New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.9° above normal). Surprised that we didn't have a late freeze last year when we had snow in May lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The March low dewpoint and underperforming rainfall pattern continues. Newark Liberty SUNNY 60 13 15 W7 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.75 1958 0.14 -0.14 T MONTH TO DATE 0.92 2.59 -1.67 2.24 does that correlate well to our hottest summers, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 9 hours ago, Cfa said: 57/28 split today. No clouds. No complaints from me. the sky looked amazing! do you think this pattern continues for tomorrow and Monday? I dont want that offshore storm to mess up our perfect blue sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 16 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark is on track for its earliest last measurable snowfall following a 45”+ season. So you can see how extreme that AO reversal was back in mid-February. With the exception of 14-15, our snowfall has been very AO dependent. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Last Measurable 1 1996-04-30 78.4 4-10 2 1961-04-30 73.5 3-31 3 2011-04-30 68.2 3-21 4 1978-04-30 64.9 3-16 5 1994-04-30 64.5 3-18 6 2014-04-30 61.1 4-16 7 1958-04-30 58.3 3-21 8 1967-04-30 57.3 3-22 9 2003-04-30 53.1 4-7 10 1948-04-30 51.0 3-11 11 2010-04-30 47.9 2-26 12 2004-04-30 47.8 3-19 13 2015-04-30 46.4 3-21 14 2021-04-30 45.7 2-22 very similar to 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 16 hours ago, uncle W said: this year was 2007-08 on steriods... or more like a lesser version of 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 10:41 AM, bluewave said: March has had an inverse relationship to February snowfall since the snowier era began in 2003. All the 20”+ Februaries had under 4” during March in NYC. The under 5" Februaries generally had a nice rebound in March like in 2018. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Feb Mar 2010 36.9 T 2014 29.0 0.1 2006 26.9 1.3 2003 26.1 3.5 2021 26.0 T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Feb Mar 2020 T T 2012 0.2 0.0 2004 0.7 4.8 2019 2.6 10.4 2007 3.8 6.0 2016 4.0 0.9 2009 4.3 8.3 2011 4.8 1.0 2018 4.9 11.6 I only notable exception to this I can think of is 2014-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 9:56 AM, Allsnow said: This! March is one of the worst months of the year. I’m glad we didn’t get snow this month and we used it all in February Our snowiest Februaries can eclipse 30 inches.....a snowy March around here is like 10 inches lol. Take the snowy February and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 10:03 AM, Brian5671 said: Odd winter-Jan and March snowless, Feb rocked Nice December too, very 2009-10ish kind of snowfall profile. That's one reason I'm looking to see if we follow that summer pattern. (Other reason is the 11 yr cycle.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 12:04 PM, FPizz said: I agree that March is a bad month, but to me April takes the top prize. Some snow in March makes it at least interesting. Otherwise we have today, 40s and rain. April snows are more memorable than March snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On 3/18/2021 at 10:41 AM, Will - Rutgers said: today, a much-needed soaking rain which will wake up all sorts of noxious weeds and awful biting insects filled with disease. nature is healing. hopefully we just have warm and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(45/63), or +10.0. Month to date is 40.6[-0.1]. Should be 44.4[+2.8] by the 29th. The GFS has 14" OF SNOW ON THE 29TH.!! If this is the new GFS, it is going to have a short life span. Lobotomy is indicated. The 06Z has no snow and little rain. 2.2" is now less than 1.0". Mystery solved. Yesterday 59* in the City but just 50* here briefly. Same today I think, 61*/50*. 44*(50%RH) here at 6am. (was 43* at 1am.) 48* by 9am. 51* at 10am. been 52* since 10:30am., now still at Noon. { City is 59*, LGA just 53*. } Still stuck at 52* by 2pm. 53* at 3pm. 54* at 4pm. 56* at 5pm. 50* by 8pm. 48* by 9pm. This was the source for the snow. Looks more like a needle mishap or the initial P-Wave of a major earthquake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(45/63), or +10.0. Month to date is 40.6[-0.1]. Should be 44.4[+2.8] by the 29th. The GFS has 14" OF SNOW ON THE 29TH.!! If this is the new GFS, it is going to have a short life span. Lobotomy is indicated. 44*(50%RH) here at 6am. It’s the Classic GFS that has it. V16 has nothing. Wondering why the implementation still hasn’t happened yet unless I’m blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now