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Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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On 6/7/2021 at 8:19 AM, iluvsnow said:

Wish we could share all this rain further west. Ohio has had a pretty Garden of Eden type start to summer.

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I would be pissed if this happened in winter...precip is avoiding Michigan like the plague. I mean I'm not happy about it now lol but once a snow weenie always a snow weenie 

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Would never predict it so far in advance, but it sort of feels like we are laying the groundwork for 100 degree weather in Chicago at some point.  If not a multi day affair, then one of those intense 1 day eastward discharges of hot air from the west.

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On 6/8/2021 at 10:11 AM, DAFF said:

Locally... I do not recall a single thunder storm this spring. Best was a evening with heat lightning over lake Erie. The rains which do develop are weak sauce with no real battle zone frontal passage. 

I continue to be amazed at this pattern. Never in my lifetime have I seen it this quiet. Smh Strange times

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Would never predict it so far in advance, but it sort of feels like we are laying the groundwork for 100 degree weather in Chicago at some point.  If not a multi day affair, then one of those intense 1 day eastward discharges of hot air from the west.

i’ll go with a no on that.


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On 6/8/2021 at 10:11 AM, DAFF said:

Locally... I do not recall a single thunder storm this spring. Best was a evening with heat lightning over lake Erie. The rains which do develop are weak sauce with no real battle zone frontal passage. 

It's better than nothing, but afternoon pulse stuff here isn't really cutting it.  Areas outside the natural terrain/like-breeze convergence zones are repeatedly screwed out of rain despite random thunderheads nearby every day.

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7 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

For we in Ohio....its looking more and more likely it will be at least July before we see our first 90 degree reading. Last half of June looking to be below normal. I'll take it.

Only year Dayton didn't hit 90 until August was in 2008, which was the latest first on record. There had been only 3 years Dayton didn't hit 90 at all: 1958, 2000, and 2004.

With the cicadas around, we might as well head towards a 2004 redux. We'd waste a hot pattern if we didn't tag 90 at all, just like a cold pattern in the Winter being wasted with very little snow.

Even though BAMWX is hinting potential big heat late this month into early July, here's something from our coldmeister JB. JB is apparently hugging the Euro instead of the GooFuS this time. :lol:

 

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13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The 12z Euro has dews in the low to mid 20s in parts of northern IL next Wed afternoon.  Don't think I've ever seen dews that low in IL in met summer.  That would be extremely hard to do with evapotranspiration kicking in hard during mid to late June.

Wow, that would be historic. I’ve seen dews in the 30s here in early June, but a dew under 40 beyond June 15th is very rare. 20s would be insane. 
 

I wonder what dews were like here during the droughts of the 1930s.

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22 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The 12z Euro has dews in the low to mid 20s in parts of northern IL next Wed afternoon.  Don't think I've ever seen dews that low in IL in met summer.  That would be extremely hard to do with evapotranspiration kicking in hard during mid to late June.

It can happen if all the trees die and drop their leaves.  That's where it'll be by August here if this bullshit pattern doesn't change.

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Had a good SOI rise from 6/13 to 6/15, but now we see a massive SOI crash from 6/18 to today. 

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
20 Jun 2021 1013.56 1014.60 -16.38 -2.66 1.71
19 Jun 2021 1014.21 1014.05 -7.94 -2.08 2.00
18 Jun 2021 1015.23 1013.65 2.04 -1.55 2.19
17 Jun 2021 1015.96 1013.35 9.28 -1.41 2.23
16 Jun 2021 1016.13 1012.40 17.15 -1.76 2.10
15 Jun 2021 1016.19 1011.45 24.25 -2.01 1.88
14 Jun 2021 1015.55 1011.95 16.24 -2.08 1.58
13 Jun 2021 1014.99 1013.10 4.22 -1.76 1.34
12 Jun 2021 1014.54 1013.05 1.41 -1.32 1.28
11 Jun 2021 1013.54 1012.70 -3.16 -1.07 1.24
10 Jun 2021 1013.74 1012.30 1.05 -0.78 1.14
9 Jun 2021 1013.33 1012.10 -0.42 -0.53 1.06

 

Sign of a good transient warm-up in the works for sometime in early July before going back to troughing afterwards?

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