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stormtracker

February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE

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You know how this goes.

NO BANTER

NO CRYING

NO SHOES

NO SERVICE

Stay on topic.  Take the pity parties to banter.   There isn't a prize for most posts deleted.  If that's happening a lot to you, either make better posts or make no posts.   That is the way.

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1613660400-YUt24m53Aac.png1613660400-jiLrmxNYyIQ.pngJust illustrating the difference.  I'm going to be extrapolating the radar like a mofo to see where its directed.

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*This is NOT a storm cancel or autopsy.  It could break our way. Just wanted to highlight something larger scale going on*

I wanted to illustrate something. 
0D21D6AE-9E49-4B1B-98EF-E016ECE1332E.thumb.jpeg.c85556f08f40b8f1420a40fe5ac5827e.jpeg

look at 6z. This is generally the same across guidance. The primary dies in eastern TN. The coastal takes over and tracks from outer banks to east of Delmarva. Look at where the banding of precip is. That blue area is where it SHOULD be snow. But it’s not. It’s mixed with sleet and freezing rain all the way to the PA line. 
 

Guidance isn’t trending north. It’s trending warmer. And I don’t know why. What are we even rooting for there?  That track is absolutely PERFECT in every way!  We have an Arctic high in place. Cant use the “no cold air” excuse. This keeps happening a lot lately. Tracks that should produce snow in DC find a way not too or produce way less then they SHOULD.  It’s frustrating and troubling. 

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8 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

image.thumb.png.ca2f812a37c08f9a5102fe85b5ad5e20.pngLWX bringing that 6-8 further south. This is from 3am 

I hate that little blue blob right over my house surrounded by yellow. But can’t say it’s wrong. Every major storm this winter has basically been 3-4” of snow plus mixing. Don’t see a reason to change that for tomorrow.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I hate that little blue blob right over my house surrounded by yellow. But can’t say it’s wrong. Every major storm this winter has basically been 3-4” of snow plus mixing. Don’t see a reason to change that for tomorrow.

Just take your dog out and let him pee in the same spot for a couple days. Gotta think outside the box to find easy answers to complex problems 

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I should have said this up front. My post was not meant to be an autopsy or storm cancel. It could still work out. But damnit it’s a lot more difficult then it should be with that setup.  Just wanted to point out how good the track is here because we often get stuck looking at the pretty colors but I look at the temps and precip panels last. And that really makes it stick out how out of whack they are and have been multiple times in recent years! 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I should have said this up front. My post was not meant to be an autopsy or storm cancel. It could still work out. But damnit it’s a lot more difficult then it should be with that setup.  Just wanted to point out how good the track is here because we often get stuck looking at the pretty colors but I look at the temps and precip panels last. And that really makes it stick out how out of whack they are and have been multiple times in recent years! 

the icon has a really hard time showing snow. When all the other models have like 12-18...it shows like a default 3-4 inches

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this always drives me crazy but i see it all the time. I hate when PA gets snow from our southern storm before we do

 

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_19.png

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Nam maybe a tick colder through 12z.  Sleet line through Stafford county.  Any breathing room helps.

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What I like is NAM isn’t showing just spitting light precip for a few hours while the column is cold enough for snow.  Comes in with the darker blues.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Nam maybe a tick colder through 12z.  Sleet line through Stafford county.  Any breathing room helps.

every tick today is like 1-2 inches of snow lol

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the icon has a really hard time showing snow. When all the other models have like 12-18...it shows like a default 3-4 inches

I just used the icon but it’s the same idea across guidance.  There shouldn’t be mixing problems in DC (at least not significant ones) with that track in mid February with an Arctic high over Montreal at the start.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I should have said this up front. My post was not meant to be an autopsy or storm cancel. It could still work out. But damnit it’s a lot more difficult then it should be with that setup.  Just wanted to point out how good the track is here because we often get stuck looking at the pretty colors but I look at the temps and precip panels last. And that really makes it stick out how out of whack they are and have been multiple times in recent years! 

Is the problem still at 700-800mb? Seems like soundings have consistently shown a warm nose and many mets in here have been pointing out southerly winds in the mid levels? This is all above my pay grade but would be interesting to compare the modeled mid level maps to previous storms and see what is different.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Still snow in DC (barely) at 27 hours.  Seems a tick colder than 6z

Holding on for dear life.  Ill take it.nam_2021021712_027_38.9--77.15.png

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wanted to illustrate something. 
0D21D6AE-9E49-4B1B-98EF-E016ECE1332E.thumb.jpeg.c85556f08f40b8f1420a40fe5ac5827e.jpeg

look at 6z. This is generally the same across guidance. The primary dies in eastern TN. The coastal takes over and tracks from outer banks to east of Delmarva. Look at where the banding of precip is. That blue area is where it SHOULD be snow. But it’s not. It’s mixed with sleet and freezing rain all the way to the PA line. 
 

Guidance isn’t trending north. It’s trending warmer. And I don’t know why. What are we even rooting for there?  That track is absolutely PERFECT in every way!  We have an Arctic high in place. Cant use the “no cold air” excuse. This keeps happening a lot lately. Tracks that should produce snow in DC find a way not too or produce way less then they SHOULD.  It’s frustrating and troubling. 

I don't know if it is relevant, but last week, I was watching it snow and later sleet at my house for many hours, but the weather apps and radar said rain.  And the other day, it was showing snow on radar, while it was definitely raining.  

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