OBS and nowcast 9 AM today - Noon Valentines Day Feb 13-14, 2021

[donsutherland1]

Light freezing rain has commenced in Larchmont, NY. A few sleet pellets are mixed in.

[wdrag]

Good morning everyone,

This little ice event looks done, excepting remains e LI, and maybe some flurries ne PA, extreme nw NJ and se NYS this morning. HRRR  too aggressive ne PA, far nw NJ se NYS. A taste of the mess to come. 

[Brian5671]

Nothing here.  Bust

[Snowshack]

Slight glaze here, although with temp up to 30f and daylight increasing shouldn’t be much of an issue 

[Snowlover11]

slight glaze in yonkers.

[wdrag]

So, upon further review, and do check before you go out and fall down, Wantage NJ has a slightest film of freezing drizzle and apparently a few ice pellets from overnight. This includes all surfaces... just couldn't see it at 4A.  My guess this occurred at least some of th area south I-84 down to the more obvious icing along and south of I78.  21.4F at the time of this writing. Bust for those who didn't get nary any wintry element and consider yourself blessed with free flow travel - dog walking this morning.  

[gravitylover]

I saw a few crystalline entities drifting lazily down around 1:30-2am but nothing that mattered. I'd much rather have a nothing burger than ice.

[ForestHillWx]

Thin sheet of ice on all surfaces. 22 currently. 

[wdrag]

Good morning again,  I would like to show you something... the observations from the Sussex Airport (KFWN) which is ~ 4 miles east of our home in Wantage at a little less than 500' elevation.  Our home is at 740'.  These are the observations in GMT (Z) since about 4AM.  Notice the I group showing up around 10 and 11z and yet no defined precipitation in progress. That I group signifies some sort of icing (could be clear sky first, or dense fog ice accretion). In this case while there was some lowered visibility in fog- I think we had a below the radar beam passage of freezing drizzle (shallow low top under 3000' ). It was at this time, that I think the icing developed up here, because at 4AM I didn't notice with a walking check of the back deck. (was reviewing upcoming weather after 4A)

There is an interp message of the I group somewhere out in google land. I0003 in the hourly would imply .01 glaze (every 3 = .01)  In this case, it tossed out a Trace (I0000)  This I group was added to all ASOS's in recent years, after the Cold Regions Research Lab (CRRL) led by Dr Charles Ryerson and Al Ramsay collaborated with several NWS forecasters to see if ASOS could measure ice.  This is the best solution that took 15 years to implement but helps forecasters get an automated idea of icing occurrences, primarily for the benefit of aviation but also public products. 

[IrishRob17]

To your point @wdrag, very light snow here but nothing on the radar. 

[hudsonvalley21]

43 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

To your point @wdrag, very light snow here but nothing on the radar. 

Same here with the period of light snow.  Was not forecasted. 26/25

[wishcast_hater]

Why is no one posting computer guidance maps for this storm? 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Why is no one posting computer guidance maps for this storm? 

Usually in an obs thread mapping is seldom used, its basically now casting. You can compare the short term models such as the HRRR and the NAM.

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Why is no one posting computer guidance maps for this storm? 

This is an obs thread for last night/this morning....

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Usually in an obs thread mapping is seldom used, its basically now casting. You can compare the short term models such as the HRRR and the NAM.

And this storm over.  Please go the storm threads of 15-16,  18-19.

 

Short term maps get posted in the more substantial event ob threads (longer duration and bigger snow events)

[NorthShoreWx]

Event total, Smithtown, NY = A trace of sleet and freezing rain.  Liquid equivalent = Trace

[ForestHillWx]

Interesting evolution out here. Started with ice this morning with a brief period of freezing rain at 22 degrees; then as the temperature warmed had a brief period of light snow. Seemed counter-intuitive.