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Ralph Wiggum

February 15-16 Event

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In no way am I saying the accumulated ice map as shown a few posts above will verify (or even close to it), but i feel there is way too little pubic awareness of what COULD be in store. If we get above .10 of ice then there could be a few power issues. Above .25 and some significant issues.  Above .50 then ????????. I know the media is cautions to say much until it becomes "likely", and there is the issue of a huge range of difference between south Jersey and say Berks County - all in the same Philadelphia  viewer coverage area, but if someone is caught off guard and they are 24 to 36 hours without power I think there will be a lot of "I wish I had known.

 

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6 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:

90170339e741667613c2b6a9f832d002.jpg
NWS looks to be taking it pretty serious...


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Looks like I am in the warned area. Fortunately my travel day was today and not tomorrow or last night. Will keep up with the latest info.

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2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Ice storm warning includes Western Chester County...it will be tough with snow pack to warm us in spots over 600 ft across much of the county....let's hope I am wrong!

However remember cold air in these situations gets trapped in the valleys.  The lower you are the worst the ice will be, but you also have to be further north into where the cold air is hanging on.  

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

However remember cold air in these situations gets trapped in the valleys.  The lower you are the worst the ice will be, but you also have to be further north into where the cold air is hanging on.  

Hey Kevin actually it works both ways during events like this....lower spots in Chester County like Exton will not have icing (hence why the NWS does not include them in the warning)...but as you drive up Route 100 and pass 500 ft at the PA Turnpike you will start to notice ice accretion starting in the trees - have seen this many times....

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1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Hey Kevin actually it works both ways during events like this....lower spots in Chester County like Exton will not have icing (hence why the NWS does not include them in the warning)...but as you drive up Route 100 and pass 500 ft at the PA Turnpike you will start to notice ice accretion starting in the trees - have seen this many times....

totally agree I see.  I see the same thing down this way then in relation to elevation where the Airport 95 Corridor see nothing but go up into NW Delaware County points north and west you see more.

 

I am not expecting many problems at all down this way into Central Delaware County.

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Birds 69 is  one of my favorite  posters. He is from my home areas code.  Hope he pops up the next several days'.

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13 minutes ago, blue sky said:

Birds 69 is  one of my favorite  posters. He is from my home areas code.  Hope he pops up the next several days'.

He'll be here... He's one of the regulars around here still. Great dude :drunk:

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I'm unsure what to think in my area. My house runs a good degree or two colder than other areas in Mercer county due to the elevation. I'm right on the border of Huntington county which is under an ice storm warning for .25-.5" of ice. Should be interesting how long we stay below freezing here. I don't envy mt hollys job at all. Could still see it being a nothing burger of mostly heavy rain if precip holds off like the nam or a big ice event Monday night if precip rolls in early like the euro and HRRR. I think it will very much be a nowcasting event and the models won't have a great grasp of the low level cold. 

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18 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Anyone have a NWS map of bucks showing an up close of their delineation line (showing towns) between upper and lower bucks?

I think 202 basically divides upper and lower give or take a mile or so

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Rgem came in colder

Yup definitely further se with the low level cold air. More amped than 12z too so it might even be colder than that. Won't be surprised at all if we continue to trend colder up to the start time.

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think 202 basically divides upper and lower give or take a mile or so

Thanks so much Ralph...

I think you are correct with that...

In Buckingham (literally 100 yards west of 202) I’m considered Central Bucks but that doesn’t help much with the NWS lower/upper delineations especially  with situations such as this. 

I did some clicking on my WU StormRadar and find that the ice storm warning kicks in about a mile west up my road...

Now  I know I’m on the line so depending on which forecast I like more (upper vs lower) that’s where I live‼️ ;)

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13 minutes ago, Newman said:

10 years since the last Ice Storm Warning from Mt Holly... unreal

60AFD296-3FEB-41E1-9524-90CEEAADDB65.thumb.png.b358a83b5a2d4e877d2e734778893b8b.png.534ad9ca3baabee95fc279378c32befb.png

Caveat to that is they opted for Winter Storm Warnings Instead of Ice Storm Warnings for the February 2014 Ice Storm. We all know how that turned out. 

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2 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Anyone have a NWS map of bucks showing an up close of their delineation line (showing towns) between upper and lower bucks?

I'd like to see a close-up map for central Montco. I'm not sure which side of the line I'm on. I know a few miles either ways doesn't make a difference, just curious where my neighborhood is in relation. Lansdale itself is in the WAA, but I'm west of the borough over by NP High.

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

They be leaping off bridges in New England from a warm 18z euro run, yet it held the same here.

 

Big red flag on the 18z. In one run it took Philly  from 37 to 58 degrees .... the fine details of where the surface low tracks. Do we keep the NNE wind or do we veer SE.  

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25 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'd like to see a close-up map for central Montco. I'm not sure which side of the line I'm on. I know a few miles either ways doesn't make a difference, just curious where my neighborhood is in relation. Lansdale itself is in the WAA, but I'm west of the borough over by NP High.

Seems know one has it...

Paging WALT DRAG...Paging WALT DRAG!

Per my previous follow up post...

get the stormradar app and poke around to see where the ice storm warning kicks in so you can see how close you are to their delineation line!

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1 minute ago, Snowcane21 said:

Big red flag on the 18z. In one run it took Philly  from 37 to 58 degrees .... the fine details of where the surface low tracks. Do we keep the NNE wind or do we veer SE.  

NOT buying 58° at all‼️‼️

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I'd like to see a close-up map for central Montco. I'm not sure which side of the line I'm on. I know a few miles either ways doesn't make a difference, just curious where my neighborhood is in relation. Lansdale itself is in the WAA, but I'm west of the borough over by NP High.

Get the wunderground app and you can have the warnings layer on the map to see where the warning and watches are exactly


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34 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'd like to see a close-up map for central Montco. I'm not sure which side of the line I'm on. I know a few miles either ways doesn't make a difference, just curious where my neighborhood is in relation. Lansdale itself is in the WAA, but I'm west of the borough over by NP High.

In Worcester it is Grange Ave.  Worcester is eastern Montco. Skippack is western Montco. Not sure what line it follows in Towamencin etc.

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50 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'd like to see a close-up map for central Montco. I'm not sure which side of the line I'm on. I know a few miles either ways doesn't make a difference, just curious where my neighborhood is in relation. Lansdale itself is in the WAA, but I'm west of the borough over by NP High.

 

21 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:


Get the wunderground app and you can have the warnings layer on the map to see where the warning and watches are exactly


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Thanks so much...works great!!

I saved a shot of the Montgomery County delineation but this annoying site says it’s too large to upload for me to show it to you!

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Thanks so much...works great!!
I saved a shot of the Montgomery County delineation but this annoying site says it’s too large to upload for me to show it to you!

d01c11f76269db042b3f2c4d21b9f472.jpg


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