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Ralph Wiggum

February 15-16 Event

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON is colder. Light rain to fzra and sleet overnight Sunday into early Monday AM with that rogue wave.

NAM in the last frame is showing the cold air pressing into the area for Tuesday’s system. 2m temps crash north and west from 9z to 12z as the low takes shape and turns the surface winds northerly.  Temps are 32-33 area wide prior to that occurring. No solution is set obviously but the threat of significant Icing for someone here is definitely still on the table. 

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Yeh that annoyance AND, his “PUNCTURE IN” term bothers me more that nails on a chalk board...

Also, when will they acknowledge that they blew there “Winter Forecast” yet again⁉️‼️

Hurricane wised up this year and didn’t issue one and Katy Bilo admitted last night that her initial winter outlook was wrong!  

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7 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Yeh that annoyance AND, his “PUNCTURE IN” term bothers me more that nails on a chalk board...

Also, when will they acknowledge that they blew there “Winter Forecast” yet again⁉️‼️

Hurricane wised up this year and didn’t issue one and Katy Bilo admitted last night that her initial winter outlook was wrong!  

Glenn's 68 and sliding into retirement and didn't want to deal with it. And I don't blame him... 

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25 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Glenn's 68 and sliding into retirement and didn't want to deal with it. And I don't blame him... 

...I couldn’t agree more, he admitted that there was no way to be accurate (and pretty much “that it’s click bait”)!

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Just now, snowwors2 said:

...I couldn’t agree more, he admitted that there was no way to be accurate (and pretty much “that it’s click bait”)!

I don't know exactly how many years all the local channels have been doing their winter outlook but combined they can't be more than 20% accurate. And when I say accurate I mean "pretty close"....

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

They said the NAM was wrong but 0z guidance coming in milder 

06z guidance even warmer. Don't think there is a model that even keeps lehigh valley under 32 now. 084 hr nam is the new king. 

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59 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

06z guidance even warmer. Don't think there is a model that even keeps lehigh valley under 32 now. 084 hr nam is the new king. 

Para gfs and euro and big ticket ice events just N and W. Likely extreme outliers tho but take note anyway. Elephant in the room is the PV lurking. Add icon to the mild list....also considered the new king by many.

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Looking like 33F rain next week now.

 

Remember when the models were showing snow with temps in the teens ? PV ended up over the middle of the country instead of the lakes where it was modeled. 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember when the models were showing snow with temps in the teens ? PV ended up over the middle of the country instead of the lakes where it was modeled. 

I feel for the MA crew. Outside of a March 58 redux, its over down there for all intents and purposes.

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9 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Adam Joseph keeps referring to tomorrows event as a storm. He did it at 6pm and just now.....it bothers me.  

 

9 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Yeh that annoyance AND, his “PUNCTURE IN” term bothers me more that nails on a chalk board...

Also, when will they acknowledge that they blew there “Winter Forecast” yet again⁉️‼️

Hurricane wised up this year and didn’t issue one and Katy Bilo admitted last night that her initial winter outlook was wrong!  

 

8 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I don't know exactly how many years all the local channels have been doing their winter outlook but combined they can't be more than 20% accurate. And when I say accurate I mean "pretty close"....

They all love to use "good news" as a distraction when their forecast fails.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I feel for the MA crew. Outside of a March 58 redux, its over down there for all intents and purposes.

Brutal winter for them

We need a huge Miller A for everyone to cash in. 

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Para gfs and euro and big ticket ice events just N and W. Likely extreme outliers tho but take note anyway. Elephant in the room is the PV lurking. Add icon to the mild list....also considered the new king by many.

Are you looking at the right paragfs run? Looks like heavy rain almost to the pa/nys border at 6z. Just seems like all guidance is bleeding the wrong way now even the euro was a bit warmer at 06z than 00z. Hopefully we start to see a reversal soon but trends have been more and more liquid the last 24-48 hours. 

 

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

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10 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Yeh that annoyance AND, his “PUNCTURE IN” term bothers me more that nails on a chalk board...

Also, when will they acknowledge that they blew there “Winter Forecast” yet again⁉️‼️

Hurricane wised up this year and didn’t issue one and Katy Bilo admitted last night that her initial winter outlook was wrong!  

Lol, I haven't watched him, what exactly is "puncturing in"? Sounds like a shot/needle, for example.

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46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Are you looking at the right paragfs run? Looks like heavy rain almost to the pa/nys border at 6z. Just seems like all guidance is bleeding the wrong way now even the euro was a bit warmer at 06z than 00z. Hopefully we start to see a reversal soon but trends have been more and more liquid the last 24-48 hours. 

 

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

Tuesday is likely DOA. However a more.amped Tuesday sets up the thermal boundary for a potebtially better Thursday. Losing optimism on both tbh but we'll see what happens. One system at a time.

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Yeah it sure seems the fun times are coming to an end. Temps forecast to be in the mid 30’s to around 40 next week  Personally I’d rather it snow or sleet but rather it rain opposed to Freezing rain. 

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53 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Yeah it sure seems the fun times are coming to an end. Temps forecast to be in the mid 30’s to around 40 next week  Personally I’d rather it snow or sleet but rather it rain opposed to Freezing rain. 

This screams major ice for n&w. Not gonna scour this cold out. Sorry

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13 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

This screams major ice for n&w. Not gonna scour this cold out. Sorry

Agree... the 12z Rgem and the 12z icon depict surface temps of 32-33 with around .75” qpf.  We are teetering on the edge here. This needs to be watched closely. 

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Even "surface" temps of 33-34 could mean power lines and elevated surfaces are still cold enough (around 31-32) with the recent cold nights for ice accretion. I still think Berks/Lehigh Valley will see some decent icing Tuesday but guidance has been trending the other direction.

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Tuesday is likely DOA. However a more.amped Tuesday sets up the thermal boundary for a potebtially better Thursday. Losing optimism on both tbh but we'll see what happens. One system at a time.

Tuesday could still be icy in parts but I am thinking more Lehigh Valley and Berks County. Am still thinking Friday could be a threat as models have to get two other storms out of the way.

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1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

Big mess shaping up N&W of 95. Change my mind 

The Euro and it’s ensembles have been advertising a big ticket icing event for days now. It’s hard to bet against. 

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