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snowfan

February 10-12 event obs

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Just now, jayyy said:

Final frames of the Hi-Def iOS radar shows locations around dc changing to snow from rain as heavier returns move in. This app has been spot on all season long depicting the rain/snow/mix line 

Looks like some yellows forming over DC, let’s see if this band can get our temps down a bit. 

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Time to let the chips fall.

My forecast is for 2-4" with some sleet, and there is also a "concern" for several  hundredths of an inch ice accretion at some point tomorrow, before changing back to snow tomorrow evening.

Time to focus on the next one, and the one after that. It ain't boring, folks.

That’s what I was saying last night. No matter what happens, the fact that we are tracking 4 distinct winter weather events over a 6 day span in a niña winter is awesome. 

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Folks in NW and NE dc should be changing over to snow as we speak. The snow machine will shut off pretty quickly as we await the main batch of precip to arrive this evening, but it’ll be nice to see some moderate snow falling :)

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I worry that this initial slug is going to saturate the atmosphere before the main show arrives and lessen our chances at any evaporative cooling 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s what I was saying last night. No matter what happens, the fact that we are tracking 4 distinct winter weather events over a 6 day span in a niña winter is awesome. 

HL blocking defo makes it more interesting.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I worry that this initial slug is going to saturate the atmosphere before the main show arrives and lessen our chances at any evaporative cooling 

Don’t think so. Suns going to go down shortly, which should help with whatever “warm up” occurs between precip slugs  

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I worry that this initial slug is going to saturate the atmosphere before the main show arrives and lessen our chances at any evaporative cooling 

Yep we're eating toward dew points already. I will say that this stuff is barely even showing up in my window so we might still have some juice in the tank. 

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Don’t think so. Suns going to go down shortly, which should help with whatever “warm up” occurs between precip slugs  

Thought about that. Hope you’re right

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Going to be an interesting battle between the old GFS and new GFS; old GFS gives DCA .2 QPF , .1 snow, and never gets below 35, new GFS gives DCA .7 QPF , 7 inches of snow, and gets down to 32 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thought about that. Hope you’re right

Yea I’d rather get down to 33-34 degrees with this slug and let the chips fall from there than start the same process at 40 degrees like we did a couple hours ago

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1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Going to be an interesting battle between the old GFS and new GFS; old GFS gives DCA .2 QPF , .1 snow, and never gets below 35, new GFS gives DCA .7 QPF , 7 inches of snow, and gets down to 32 

Maybe they made it into a good model when they stop running it last week.

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