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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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Have a feeling some DTX and GRR areas may go warning come tomorrow sometime, but as Bill Marino (GRR) stated they didn’t want to confuse the public with two separate WSW’s (tonight’s inch or two compared to tomorrow nights 5-8”) which is understandable. We’ll see. 

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Old map from 7 am

I saw it was made at 3pm in the bottom right corner. Nice to see the other offices on board. DTX should be the last one to fall.

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Re. those regional maps, there's latency issues on NDFD, so if one office published their grids later than the data grab time for that particular map, it'll use the previous update. Would wait until about 4pm CST and 5pm EST to be sure those are the latest maps from each office.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Have a feeling some DTX and GRR areas may go warning come tomorrow sometime, but as Bill Marino (GRR) stated they didn’t want to confuse the public with two separate WSW’s (tonight’s inch or two compared to tomorrow nights 5-8”) which is understandable. We’ll see. 

IWX did the exact opposite because there may not be much of a lull

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48 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

18z NAM took about 5" of snow away with it in our neck of the woods. Now we've got to hope the RGEM is right. lol Yeah, we were right not to bite on the "nw trend" actually benefiting us. 

Remember when I moved up here, in part, to get out of the city so I could actually get some snow? hahahahahahahahaha

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Just now, Stebo said:

IWX did the exact opposite because there may not be much of a lull

I’m seeing that as well.. seems like it would’ve been wise to just go with warnings where they are warranted and wording about a potential lull.   Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think your forecast is spot-on. 

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6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

18z NAM took about 5" of snow away with it in our neck of the woods. Now we've got to hope the RGEM is right. lol Yeah, we were right not to bite on the "nw trend" actually benefiting us. 

Remember when I moved up here, in part, to get out of the city so I could actually get some snow? hahahahahahahahaha

Your climo is better in November and December and worse in Jan and Feb, that’s how it goes 

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4 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

18z NAM took about 5" of snow away with it in our neck of the woods. Now we've got to hope the RGEM is right. lol Yeah, we were right not to bite on the "nw trend" actually benefiting us. 

yes but the 18z GFS doubled your snowfall and the 18z GFSV16 stayed the same so nice trends for you if u ignore the NAM

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ILX AFD

 

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021


A frigid air mass over the region will be in place as a strong
storm system arrives in the area from the southwest tonight
through Monday night. Bitterly cold wind chills will continue
through tonight, followed by heavy snow, especially east of I-55.
Six to twelve inches of snow are expected by Monday night east of
I-55, and generally three to six inches to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

The lead disturbance ejecting out of a deep low pressure trough
over the southwest is already bringing snow from around the
Illinois River westward in a frontogenetical region, while an
additional disturbance currently heading into southern Missouri
should arrive this evening and spread snow throughout central and
southeast IL, becoming a bit heavier overnight. Just north of
Peoria should see little snowfall with this feature, but the
remainder of central and southeast IL should see an inch or two
overnight, followed by a brief lull in snowfall rates. In the
afternoon to late evening, the main surface low passes by to the
southeast, but still bringing significant snowfall rates
especially east central and southeast IL with a pronounced upper
level shortwave moving through. This latter portion of the
extended storm system should target southeast and east central IL
with the heaviest amounts, ranging from 4 to 9 additional inches
through Monday night, while areas west of I-55 only see an
additional 2 to 5 inches. Storm totals therefore range up to the 8
to 12 inch range from the I-57 corridor eastward, 4 to 8 inches
around the I-55 corridor, and 3 to 6 inches to the west. Therefore
have winter storm warnings in effect from Sangamon County/
Champaign County southward/eastward, and winter weather advisories
in effect to the northwest. It should be noted that snow should
be light and fluffy given the very cold temperatures at the
surface and aloft, so a bit unusual for the area. Although the
weight of the snow will be low, blowing and drifting could
initiate at lower wind speeds than typical as well. The snow
should taper off and end late Monday night.

 

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Just now, mimillman said:

Your climo is better in November and December and worse in Jan and Feb, that’s how it goes 

What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. 

I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. 

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1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

yes but the 18z GFS doubled your snowfall and the 18z GFSV16 stayed the same so nice trends for you if u ignore the NAM

Yes, the GFS has us around 2". The NAM was the model everyone was hyping earlier, when it was an obvious outlier. That's why I mentioned it. Not to mention the GFS literally just came out. 

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2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Yes, the GFS has us around 2". The NAM was the model everyone was hyping earlier, when it was an obvious outlier. That's why I mentioned it. Not to mention the GFS literally just came out. 

What about the GFS v16 with about 5 for you, are u not buying it?

 

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light snow already falling here...not sure its flukey or tied to the light snow were expecting overnight with the intial wave. It's about 0 degrees.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

18z GFS bumped NW, and para GFS tick NW.

Good convergence and all now well NW of last night's 00Z runs.

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Trying to convince my parents they are either going to get 2-3 inches or 8-12 depending on how the LE shapes up. It’s a fun conversation. ;-)

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Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014.  Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm.

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11 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I'll take the 18Z GFS V16 for $200

 

2068529968_snku_acc.us_ov(12).thumb.png.500a91bb937ce80c4db1a94962751f17.png

Here is the para GFS to 00z Wednesday

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.a52edd57fd0a96d4081166d798b8d37b.png

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7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

lol

Another quality post. I am convinced you could get 2 feet only on your property and still find a reason to complain. 

All of the guidance has bumped NW starting overnight. The NAM was throwing more precip NW spreading out the gradient, but it wasn’t an outlier in terms of the evolution. If it had a Madison special, then it’s an outlier. A 20 mile difference in snow is within a reasonable margin of error is in line with other guidance. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Here is the para GFS to 00z Wednesday

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.a52edd57fd0a96d4081166d798b8d37b.png

It's been steady with that call. 

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16 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. 

I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. 

That’s what I mean. Immediate lake influence does make a difference, at least in my experience living in Chicago 

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Forecasting is hard. Its why a Met in 1917 created the idea of "chaos theory". Just think if he had the "computer models".

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014.  Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm.

That’s a cool stat

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1 minute ago, Chicago WX said:

It's been steady with that call. 

I remember you doing a thread after the January 5, 2014 storm about how spread the wealth it was in Indiana.  This one looks even more spread the wealth in the state.  Actually, assuming this pans out, I can't remember the last time that a storm covered one end of the state to the other with amounts like this.  Even January 1999 didn't do that. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014.  Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm.

Not that it will happen, but when is the last time IND had two snowstorms of 10" in a 3 day period ?

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