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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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10 minutes ago, Wxnut1970 said:

9z plumes dropped again. This just isn’t SE michigan’s winter. The trend of the model the last 34 hours isn’t been good. I’m ready for spring  because this cold and no big storm is miserable.

Kokomo (north central Indianas) dropped 2" from near 7" into the 4" with the bulk clustered in the 2-3" range.  Sigh.

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ILN AFD:

However, some important differences remain in low placement and
intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further
south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north.
Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of
4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility
local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts
based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind
fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the
central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly
the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ.
Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these
will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast
leading up to the event.

Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow.

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36 minutes ago, Wxnut1970 said:

9z plumes dropped again. This just isn’t SE michigan’s winter. The trend of the model the last 34 hours isn’t been good. I’m ready for spring  because this cold and no big storm is miserable.

 Plumes are 10:1ratio I would not worry about them. Really hoping one of these 2 events dumps a good amount.  If not at least we have a good snowpack, It seems we should get at least something from both of them

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Just now, Powerball said:

It's not often you see the entire state of OK under a Winter Storm Warning, and the entire states of TX/OK/AR under winter weather headlines.

My favorite line was in the Dallas Winter storm warning, drifts may exceed 7" lol. I don't think I've ever seen something like that in a warning. Definitely an unprecedented event for that area

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STL's AFD

Quote
.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

The screaming message from last night has not changed 24 hours later
with bitterly cold air/record temperatures, dangerously cold wind
chills, and accumulating snowfall the highlights into next week.
Record low max temperatures Sunday into Monday still look like a
slam dunk, however I have less confidence in record low temperatures
due to persistent cloud cover. Still generally all but southeast
MO and far southwest IL will have mins below zero through Monday
and the entire CWA may have mins below zero on Tuesday morning.

The increasingly active upper air pattern starting later this
weekend and continuing into next week will bring accumulating
snowfall to the region first Sunday into Monday. This first event
will come in two waves. On Sunday the consensus is the first wave
will be focused from central MO into west central IL associated with
a weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft and attendant mid level
frontogenetic forcing. Snowfall amounts with this wave generally
look light, around an inch or less. The more substantial snowfall
will occur with the second wave centered on Sunday night and Monday.
The best focus for this snowfall will centered along and south of I-
70 associated with increasing low-mid level frontogenetic forcing
and increasing large scale forcing occurring ahead of a migrating
upper trof. Until late Monday the models lack a coherent 850 mb
low which could offer even greater snowfall potential. However
this combination of persistent frontogenetical forcing and large
scale support with the trof, and very cold temperatures yielding
high snow ratios, should still produce a solid measurable
snowfall of 2-5 inches across much of the CWA with the highest
amounts along and south of I-70 in the 4-5 inch range. The NBM and
GEFS exceedance probabilities support this region for the highest
snowfalls with good support for 4+ inches. If the amounts stay in
these ranges then this would be an advisory level event, and
those headlines would likely becoming later today.

We are still eyeing another system in the Wednesday-Thursday time
frame. There are some rather significant differences in the
models with regards to the depth and speed of this next migratory
upper trof, with some solutions indicating possibly a light snow
and others a rather classic winter storm. Like last night,
confidence in the specifics remains low. The very cold, well
below normal temperatures will continue mid-late week.

Glass

 

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1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

ILN AFD:

However, some important differences remain in low placement and
intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further
south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north.
Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of
4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility
local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts
based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind
fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the
central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly
the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ.
Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these
will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast
leading up to the event.

Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow.

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio.  February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots.  Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though.  If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884.  2-day events, you only have 10.  So this event could be historic from that perspective.

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Just now, jbcmh81 said:

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio.  February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots.  Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though.  If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884.  2-day events, you only have 10.  So this event could be historic from that perspective.

How could I forget Feb 2010! Ugh what storms those two were.

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