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WestTennWX

2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold

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Forecast gradually improving for Lincoln County, TN, right along the leading edge of this thing. Predicted overnight rainfall has decreased, chance of precip now 55%. Monday is the bulk of it now. Freezing rain morning and then snow afternoon is the most pessimistic outlook I have seen. Still, with overnight lows of 29 and the high tomorrow jus 31, we may end up seeing almost all of it as snow if this holds. Along the AL border like I am, I would expect my impacts to be lower than for the county as a whole.

Currently in southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, ground fog/mist, no freezing; winds NNE at 5, barometer steady at 29.95 inHg.

Screen Shot 2021-02-14 at 11.52.34 AM.png

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Forecast gradually improving for Lincoln County, TN, right along the leading edge of this thing. Predicted overnight rainfall has decreased, chance of precip now 55%. Monday is the bulk of it now. Freezing rain morning and then snow afternoon is the most pessimistic outlook I have seen. Still, with overnight lows of 29 and the high tomorrow jus 31, we may end up seeing almost all of it as snow if this holds. Along the AL border like I am, I would expect my impacts to be lower than for the county as a whole.
Currently in southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, ground fog/mist, no freezing; winds NNE at 5, barometer steady at 29.95 inHg.
486005586_ScreenShot2021-02-14at11_52_34AM.thumb.png.eeef4c24cc57f4833cb2fab276dee690.png

You are in probably one of the best places (or worst) for severe storms in Tennessee.


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Pretty healthy dynamics with this system

 

and temps seem to be verifying colder up to go time in places (see Memphis starting their WSWarning early). 

Maybe this could be a situation where rates actually do overcome if you get under the right dynamic band and the fatties get rippified. 

 

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pretty healthy dynamics with this system

 

and temps seem to be verifying colder up to go time in places (see Memphis starting their WSWarning early). 

Maybe this could be a situation where rates actually do overcome if you get under the right dynamic band and the fatties get rippified. 

 

Wow !!

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I was predicted to hit 36 today. I'm at 31 and in their afternoon update I'm now predicted to hit 32 only.  So verification seems to continually be colder than model guidance which makes a big difference in outcome on the ground. Especially around the edges of ptypes. 

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Nice! Glad to see you're getting some action already!

Me too brotha.  It’s great to see you posting, I actually thought about you last night and wondered where/how you’d been.  Hope you and the family are doing well!

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59 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

Looks like Memphis pushed up the start of the WSW due to impacts from the snow currently falling. Picked up a half inch or so here in the past few hrs.

 

Winter precipitation is already beginning to spread into the
Mid-South this morning. The precipitation is associated with a
weak shortwave that is moving through the area. Most of the
precipitation reports have been in the form of snow, but have
gotten a few sleet reports as well. Went ahead and pushed up the
start time to the Winter Storm Warning as whatever is falling is
sticking to the ground causing impacts. Will update to make some
minor temperature adjustments as well as don`t expect temperatures
to budge much similar to yesterday. Will also let Wind Chill
Advisory expire at 18Z, but will be addressing wind chill concerns
within the Winter Storm Warning as below zero wind chill values
will continue through the storm possibly even longer. Update will
be out shortly.

Same here.  Ground has a light glaze of snow on it and all the roads and walkways are white as well.  This is my front yard and what’s left of my pond, (it doesn’t hold water well so it’s a pond about 3-4 months out of the year.  Bottom corner of the picture is the road so you can see how well the snow is sticking to the roads 

892BFF56-1EA1-44A6-96A1-02F1E3537993.jpeg

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23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Ukie:

giphy.gif

 

Those rates around 18z could be HUGE for whoever they get on top of in West Tennessee.  By this map my house would be close to it or right under those heaviest returns at 18z.  

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just for posterity, 41 here in Kingsport.  What a temp gradient!

Yeah i was telling John yesterday i went over his mountains,started at 27 going up the upslopes when i got to the bottom it was 40 the other side

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