Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hard not to like the 18z RGEM sounding over central MS, upstream of the plateau:

4IwbFmT.png

 

Look at that forcing in the DGZ. 

That’s practically in my backyard! Is that a sounding for snow or freezing rain? Not too good at reading these things yet.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is basically a mini Jan 1918 pattern it looks like.  1918 was colder and will probably be snowier too but it was very West vs East based. Nashville and Memphis were colder and more snowy by double to almost triple vs Knoxville. They had -10 degree type cold and spent around two weeks below freezing while Knoxville would be on the freezing rain side of the boundary then the cold would crash back in behind it.  

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This is basically a mini Jan 1918 pattern it looks like.  1918 was colder and will probably be snowier too but it was very West vs East based. Nashville and Memphis were colder and more snowy by double to almost triple vs Knoxville. They had -10 degree type cold and spent around two weeks below freezing while Knoxville would be on the freezing rain side of the boundary then the cold would crash back in behind it.  

You are a got dang walking talking weather encyclopedia man.  I'm constantly impressed, that is amazing!  :guitar:

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SREF H5 and vorticity trend for the past 6 runs:

giphy.gif

 

Looks deeper for 0z than any of the past 6. Will this mean a deeper dig for the energy on the NAM? Colder for eastern areas? It seems to work only 75% of the time. We'll know in about an hour. 

Based off the depth of the cold banked against the plateau on soundings.. the Eastern valley is literally only a 100' or so from being a sig. ice event vs mainly cold rain. GFS/NAM doesn't pull enough thicker cold to clear the plateau until the system has passed (due to track)..Euro would be very similar to the RGEM/CMC except it has multiple lows vs one primary (@850), which mess it up for one frame. RGEM would be more ice than depicted, once that cold tops the plateau it will rush into the valley.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Olhausen said:

Last time the euro was this locked in for me was January 2016. It was showing the same 8-9 inches and I ended up with a foot. I’ll be stoked with anything 3 inches or over since it’s been almost 3 years since I’ve seen at least 2 inches from one storm.

I could easily see somewhere between Jackson and Nashville topping 12"..best ratios and qpf. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

I was trying to think when the last 5-6+ event was for Memphis and the surrounding areas.  I feel like it’s been atleast 21 years cause I don’t ever remember a storm that big in my time living here.  Not sure what happened In the 90’s but I’m pretty sure 1985 had a 10+ event in Memphis that year.  I know northwest Tn has had some big events in the past 10-20 years though, especially the TN/Kentucky border counties.

The last major one for me (Nw TN) was March 5th of 2015, we got slammed with around 12-15 inches. There were a couple of back to back systems that week as well if I remember it correctly. Measured this off my sidewalk this next morning.....maybe a repeat coming??

small snow.PNG

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great run for western Middle and west Tennessee but too warm and too north for people once you get east of Nashville. Big icy run for say Nashville but only about 2.7 inches of snow depth. Until any other guidance joins it, I'm just going to assume it's the NAM doing NAM things. It never did show me getting much of any snow during the Christmas eve event.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 51 hour RAP is basically snow for anyone who gets frozen after some freezing rain/sleet. Kind of surprising to me. It even has an inch or two around Roane to Anderson.

If the cold can penetrate enough to give BHam 6" and New Orleans a major ice storm like the RAP showed..the valley would score as well. Has the bulk of the precip lagging behind the low

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Last time the euro was this locked in for me was January 2016. It was showing the same 8-9 inches and I ended up with a foot. I’ll be stoked with anything 3 inches or over since it’s been almost 3 years since I’ve seen at least 2 inches from one storm.

I vividly remember the pictures of the epic pancake on your porch table.  Helluva storm!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...