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2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
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7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I remember the days when a southern slider was money for mid TN. 

Long as i have been living in Tn i  have never recalled a system before it gets to the Big bend of Fl eject to Northern Ga that fast

 

Edit:I'm not saying its fast really,but the track is rather unique

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Going to bed, but our business has given us the day off tomorrow. Seems smart eith most of the roads being completely iced over as of now. Just had our first actual good rain shower come over a few minutes ago. Temperature warmed up a degree to 27 as well. TWC has raised our high temp from 32 all the way to 38 now tomorrow but we'll see. NWS Nashville originally had it around that but actually has us only at 34 now for the high.

 

Good luck to all the Western and Middle forum areas, hopefully it will be a mostly snow event and a good one at that.

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COOL – WE HAVE POWER! 

Last night worked out pretty much as I had expected for us in southern Lincoln County. My skepticism was accurate. That warmth to our south pushed it around us just enough. We dodged it.

Overnight, we had a 78% precip probability but got 0.00". This morning at 7:30, light icing on windshields (I've seen thicker frosts), 28 degrees, winds NE at 2 and barometer steady at 29.85 inHg. A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet.

Really hoping all the members who can't log in this morning because of power outages are coping well.

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Both PAH and MEM morning discos mention up to 20:1 snow ratios for this afternoon....unreal for this area

8 degrees this morning with a wind chill of -11. Gusts to 24. Brutal!

 

From PAH:

Additionally, with very cold tropospheric temperatures,
snow-to-liquid ratios of 10-15:1 this morning are forecast to
increase to 15-20:1 by this afternoon. So the combination of the
strong forcing, high QPF, and high SLRs will contribute to very
efficient snow accumulation. Overall, storm total snow accumulation
of 6 to 10 inches is expected, with some localized totals up to a
foot. Add in the north winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20
to 25 mph, and blowing and drifting snow will be a problem. All
this adds up to a serious situation that will cripple the flow of
traffic and commerce in the region. And dangerously cold sub zero
wind chills in many locations heightens the threat to life. As a
result, the Winter Storm Warning will continue through tonight.

 

 

MEM:

Short term...(Today through Tuesday)...An 850 mb low will move
from Central Arkansas today northeast into the Ohio Valley
tonight. Ample moisture and strong large scale forcing combined
with a very cold arctic airmass will continue to produce wintry
precipitation across the Mid-South throughout the day and heavy
at times this morning and into this afternoon. Analysis of short
term model soundings indicates precipitation will remain snow over
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest
Tennessee, initially a mix of sleet and snow along and south of
I-40 and gradually transitioning to all snow this morning near the
Mississippi River and gradually across the remainder of West
Tennessee into this afternoon. Snow ratios will average from 20:1
near the MO/KY border to 15:1 towards North Mississippi. Meanwhile,
precipitation across most of North Central and Northeast
Mississippi will be a mixture of sleet and freezing rain then
gradually transitioning to snow towards the end of the event
towards this evening. Areas to the southeast of Tupelo are most
likely to experience freezing rain for much of the event and the
Winter Storm Warning was transitioned over to an ice storm warning
where one quarter to one half inch of ice accumulation may occur.
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12 hours ago, bamabonners said:

Sweetpea, I'm just southeast of huntsville in Owens Cross Roads.  Looking like most of this is staying just west of us, which is fine with me.  I don't mind snow, but I don't want anything to do with ice.  Are you thinking the same?

Sorry, I was watching TV when you posted! :D I'm with you! It can snow all it wants, but ice is bad. We dodged a bullet. I went through a couple ice storms here - worst I think was 1994,  we were out of power for 7 days. I've just got my first cup of coffee, but I'm due to dive into the models to see why the heck they predict 5-8 inches of snow here when winds are NN EAST! That sounds ludicrous. But we'll see.

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5 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

Both PAH and MEM morning discos mention up to 20:1 snow ratios for this afternoon....unreal for this area

8 degrees this morning with a wind chill of -11. Gusts to 24. Brutal!.

My gosh, you are just 140 miles or so north of me (if we count north only and not the west part), and you are at EIGHT? Hoo boy, glad I sat this one out! B)

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12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet.

I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.

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Just now, Coach B said:

I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.

It just dropped to 3-5 inches. I am saying 1 inch. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-15 at 7.47.45 AM.png

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12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

Sorry, I was watching TV when you posted! :D I'm with you! It can snow all it wants, but ice is bad. We dodged a bullet. I went through a couple ice storms here - worst I think was 1994,  we were out of power for 7 days. I've just got my first cup of coffee, but I'm due to dive into the models to see why the heck they predict 5-8 inches of snow here when winds are NN EAST! That sounds ludicrous. But we'll see.

Just curious,  Why do you think winds out of the NN East is unusual when getting large snows?  I live in the Knoxville area and almost all the large storms i remember have had an east or north east wind component.

 

 

image.png

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1 minute ago, bearman said:

Just curious,  Why do you think winds out of the NN East is unusual when getting large snows?  I live in the Knoxville area and almost all the large storms i remember have had an east or north east wind component.

 

image.png

NNE here is a good thing. It is the SW wind that carries our big storms. NNE wind pushes against them and moves them away. Been on this spot observing weather for 31 years now, that's how she rolls here.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0087
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0928 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...eastern
   Mississippi...western Alabama...middle Tennessee...and
   central/eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 151528Z - 152130Z

   SUMMARY...A relatively narrow band of freezing rain will persist for
   several hours across the discussion area.  The onset of freezing
   rain will occur in portions of Tennessee in the next hour or so and
   in Kentucky after around 18-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery and observations indicate
   areas of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain along an axis
   from BTR/HUM to HSV.  The precipitation was being enhanced by strong
   ascent associated with an upstream mid-level wave centered over
   Oklahoma and Texas.  Impressive hourly freezing rain rates have been
   observed - including 0.11 inch per hour at BTR as of 1453Z.  Weak
   mid-level instability was allowing for localized enhancement of
   precipitation rates in a few areas due to the convective processes. 
   A few lightning flashes have also been observed across Mississippi.

   Over time, the band of heavier precipitation will migrate
   northeastward, with freezing rain becoming increasingly likely
   across Tennessee and Kentucky.  Accumulations of 0.05-0.20 inch per
   3 hours are possible (locally heavier near convection).  Current
   observations/models indicate that areas of freezing rain have
   already begun south/southeast of Nashville, and heavier
   precipitation will begin in the Nashville area in the next hour or
   so.  3-6 hours of freezing rain is expected.  The onset of heavier
   freezing rain will spread from southwest to northeast across
   central/eastern Kentucky beginning after around 18-19Z.  The axis of
   heavier freezing rain will shift eastward out of southeastern
   Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning (in the next hour or
   two), though lighter accumulations of freezing drizzle/rain and
   sleet may continue throughout the afternoon.

   ..Cook.. 02/15/2021
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