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CG2

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Everything posted by CG2

  1. CG2
    Roughly 5-6" snow mean over NE TN / SW VA on both the GEPS and GEFS
  2. CG2
    Agree. The strong NAO seemed to cause a buckle in that block that just didn't allow the cold to spread eastward. If either block had been weaker, I believe we would have seen more cold. As is, if the 12z GEFS is even close to being right, we are about to test that theory. Not sure I have seen a trough dig from the Arctic/Greenland to Cuba. LOL. That is an extreme solution. Probably means it won't verify, but maybe for suppression purposes, we want some modification there! LOL. Fingers crossed for split flow or we are going to be dependent on systems arriving from the Arctic for moisture if the run is taken verbatim. I don't want to see a repeat of 17-18 - cold and dry. With the GOM so warm, have to think some fireworks are sparked. I would not be surprised to see the NAO again later in the season when it is more correlated to cold. As is, the EPO and east Pac AN heights are more traditionally(speaking of La Nina climatology) located for cold than they were in December. Hope that works out. At this point, looks like a pattern change of at least two weeks....TBD after that. And as always....things can and will change. Just have to roll with it.
  3. CG2
    Again, this is Carvers Gap. Just using this account since it has more room for attachments. Looks like cold is locked in for Jan 3-4. Here is the 10day Jan5-15th temp anomaly maps from both the GEFS and GESP. There is even a warm-up embedded in that graphic. BN temps during our coldest weeks of the year. Literally cannot ask for a better temp profile during winter if it verifies.
  4. CG2
    Those are definitely the best. That said, getting an over-running pattern in these dry conditions is tough - dry IMBY. Now, tomorrow, we may experience flooding. Extremes are what we are seeing on modeling right now. I can't begin to state just how tough it is for a computer model to forecast extreme patterns correctly.
  5. CG2
    Agree. There could be some wild temperature gradients with these cold fronts modeled. I am not saying the GFS is right (models which flip like that could flip back during the next run), but verbatim that amount of cold would make us wish for at least a shadow of a SER in order to avoid a suppressed storm pattern.
  6. CG2
    Just for fun, check out the EPO/PNA ridge at 318.....nearly reaches the NP.
  7. CG2
    At this range, completely understandable. They can differ that much even 48 hours out. I mean, it could be gone on the next run with so much variability right now. You are in the cone at least.
  8. CG2
    At least we are tracking cold and snow for your region. Could be worse. The good/bad thing is that this is going to shift all over the place. If modeling today is true, I think there is the possibility for one storm in the western forum area and another further east(possible second cold front) as that type of boundary would likely spawn a heckuva snowstorm. I think the GOM is pretty warm right now. So an Arctic boundary hitting the GOM is fireworks.
  9. CG2
    Don't look now, but the 18z has not one but two storms for west TN. And then the cold hammer drops.
  10. CG2
    At this point (246), the entire lobe of cold should be jettisoned southeastward into the US. It may or may not be right, but this is more in line with other global modeling AND in line with its own MJO.
  11. CG2
    This is the wx pattern over our side of the hemisphere at 240/246. Now, for sure modeling is granted a ton of wiggle room at this range as so many things can influence them. But take a look at the difference that is made when the trough off California is not pumped by the AH. This falls more in line with the 12z EPS. 12z GFS at the top and 18z at the bottom. Notice what happens when the AH is gone and that trough off California moves inland. EPO ridge pops, and we don't even have a -NAO at this point.
  12. CG2
    So, check this out. This is the 12z GFS and the 18z GFS at 222....
  13. CG2
    18z GFS??
  14. CG2
    And there it is at 222, the entire trough comes eastward and settles nicely into the middle of the country where a ridge was at 12z.....a complete and total flip over the United States of what it had at 12z. Replace troughs with ridges and ridges with troughs.
  15. CG2
    Not surprising to see that storm lift north and west. Wouldn't surprise me if it became a cutter. The 12z GFS was off its rocker. The 18z GFS has a run (so far) which is much more in line with other modeling. Trough comes eastward this time instead of meandering of the coast of California. Let's see how this run looks with that seemingly corrected(again, who knows, earlier runs may have been right).
  16. CG2
    As a reminder this is Carvers Gap, hence the CG and the orange 2. I use this when I need more space for attachments. This is my ghost account. LOL. Weeklies for Jan...well, really 30 day temp map centered after the first two days of Jan. Anytime we see seasonal temps for Jan accompanied by seasonal to slightly above precip....we take. I will swing by in a bit to comment more. Keep in mind this is derived from the 0z run. The 12z looked even better.
  17. CG2
    Only +1.5F at TRI, even with two really warm days. 7 days AN and 5 BN so far. Hadn't checked this morning, but a fairly strong trough amplification does appear on track now for the second half of the month for the East. Monster PNA ridge modeled to go up just after mid-month. By the end of this upcoming week, guessing that we are going to see some quite chilly weather return as I would suspect multiple cold fronts will make this far south. Again, I suspect what we have just seen is simply a reloading of the pattern which we have had since early December. Before the last week of April, I would not be surprised to see some flakes IMBY given the current pattern modeled. And as a final note, the MJO looks like it will indeed verify in at least phase one of the MJO. Modeling is now beginning to pivot to that colder look for the East. The Rockies, as Powell noted, may be digging out of a snow storm one week and basking in very warm weather about ten days later. And yes, the Rockies get some great snows in March. Lander, WY, gets a good chunk of its snowfall in what would be our spring(later winter for them). Two years ago we were listening to the Purdue/TN game in the NCAA tournament as we raced westward across Wyoming ahead of a big storm coming up the front range. Snowed for the entire four hour drive. Had to pull over once, not because of the storm, but because TN came back and I didn't want to wreck! This storm may be a record break, even though climatology supports this during this time of the year. Some areas in WY have had an incredibly dry winter. Good to see this heavy snow for those areas.
  18. CG2
    The 18z RGEM with the quad-low on March 3rd.
  19. CG2
    I know what the models look like, but I also know the MJO is modeled to go into cold phases. Something is going to have to give....Either we see quite cold temps (and LR modeling is shaky)or the MJO forecast is wrong. Phase 8 is not overly cold in March, but does favor a trough over the EC. Phases 1-2 are cold. With the EMON forecasting the MJO to head into a cold background state...going to be tough for an extended warm-up. This basically is saying we turn cold after 3-4 days into March. We will see. Beware of ridges in the LR over the East.
  20. CG2
    You don't see this across the forum very often as a mean.
  21. CG2
    Honestly, I can see a scenario where it sleets and then changes to rain after a brief opening of snow for TRI...or I can see a scenario where the boundary stubbornly holds and doesn't change until the every end of the storm.
  22. CG2
    Thanks for the clarification there. This is a crazy forecast for them. I have seen the warm nose bull out really entrenched, cold air. However, I have seen the cold stubbornly hold from say Greeneville to Morristown. Total crapshoot and modeling reflects that with the wide variety of solutions.
  23. CG2
    During March, 8 is less cold. 1, 2, and 3 are cold. I like that modeling is aimed in that direction. Now, if someone likes an early spring...maybe not. Makes me think we should see modeling turn quite cold during early March. edit: @tnweathernut got it!
  24. CG2
    I like this. Just center the phases on FMA and that is what I use for early March. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/
  25. CG2
    Gutsy call to ride the 3K NAM. It rarely has precip amounts for changeover correct IMBY. But...it has been a while since I have had an ice set-up. I almost go back to your comment the other day where they referenced ice as a rarity here. I agree with you...it is actually common, but just not heavy IMBY. We get lots of small icing events here. When I was in high school, we used to get 2-4" storms often followed by warm nose drizzle and rain. Set-up looks similar. Interesting for sure. I wasn't expecting anything to track 48 hours ago, so I can really complain!!! LOL.
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