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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I don’t want to see another model snow map again.  

Lol yeah, digital snow is fun to look at, but not often is it reality. It’s definitely fun though.

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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I don’t want to see another model snow map again.  

They're hard to ignore, (try as I do) but a lot of people love them, so my feelings are definitely in the minority and I respect what others want to see. 

There's no harm in them so long as people understand that they'll end up with somewhere around 5-10% of ground truth if you add up the totals on the maps. It's when people see 17" over their house and expect it from a 6 hour storm that I start to pull my hair out. 

 

 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

No - that map was valid at 7:00AM this morning. You have to subtract this morning's snowfall. 

Storm Clouds just use poor math and you will be fine. Of course when I post the 18z NAM snow map for Canderson it will also make you feel better. :D

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Light freezing rain (sidewalk has a nice crunchy slickness goin on) in camp hill at the moment. Id rather have snow back thank you

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46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That Euro map was valid at 7:00AM this morning so keep that in mind. That's an additional 1" for me if accurate. 

I coulda posted qpf but that too is misleading as we are in various forms of frozen, so I just posted clown map. 

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If one believes the NAM we surely have rd 2 to contend with. Nothin substantial but def some light snow as coastal gets goin. I approve....and cross fingers. 1-2 for eastern Pa. 

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Well, at least I'm off work tonight. I called the boss and he said stay home. Day shift drivers all quit early and parked, and he saw no reason to mess around and have issues later with night shift.

While I could use the money, I'd rather be safe and not get injured or damage a truck.

So far, we got 1 to 2 inches. I didn't bother to measure this one. It had stopped for about 2 hours, but has picked up again. Mostly snow with a few pellets mixed in.

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Not on radar but we are getting light snow in Williamsport.  The flakes are bigger now than 5 minutes ago.

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6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I have a new algorithm for any more winter storms this season. I am going to take the model that shows the least amount of snow and then divide that number by two for my total

yep lol. it also doesn't help that a lot of us have been hyping up these storms and then back to back they keep turning out to be disappointments and then automatically moving onto the next one only to be disappointed yet again. im definitely burnt out which is why i havent expected much from the last 3 or 4 storms

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

HH GFS doesn't give up on #2:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

I just saw the run and snow map and thought, “paweather is going to go full weenie on this run”  3-5 On the 10-1!

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1 minute ago, dcfox1 said:

Ever since I have been here some go nuts 3 days out or more. It is more like the day before models get it down.  

I don't even think this is the truth more like when it is game time. But it is just that high I get for tracking and then being disappointed over the 30 years of doing this. 

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Interestingly, I thought the 18Z GFS is the first model to really initialize the stuff down in KY and WV correctly.  Hopefully it’s on to something and not just on something.

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