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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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20 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

This is one that can sneak up on us and we are looking at an 8 to 12 event.


.

Our friend who retired from MU disagrees, and says that energy behind it will kick it out and give us a couple/few inches at most. That was discouraging to read...

It's time for him to be wrong. :) 

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15 minutes ago, daxx said:

Spring weather today. Snow depth now 5.8”. I’m thankful for the sleet and freezing rain from the last storm. 

thats how we in the LSV turn the - into the + as sleet is a pack densifier for retention purposes.....hehe

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Our friend who retired from MU disagrees, and says that energy behind it will kick it out and give us a couple/few inches at most. That was discouraging to read...

It's time for him to be wrong. :) 

My goalposts due to being rather progressive, and a 6-8 hr event was 3-5" in MBY as decent qpf is being modeled down here. 

From Altoona to Poconos would be western periphery IMO.  Pos tilt wont let this one come much further N/NW imo.  Just running outta time, but hey I'd be glad to see further adjustments in favor or CTP.

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

My goalposts due to being rather progressive, and a 6-8 hr event was 3-5" in MBY as decent qpf is being modeled down here. 

From Altoona to Poconos would be western periphery IMO.  Pos tilt wont let this one come much further N/NW imo.  Just running outta time, but hey I'd be glad to see further adjustments in favor or CTP.

 

Discouraging for sure.

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Nooners continue the NW adjustments (albeit minor) and squarely have LSV in play.  As suggested, still enough time to get next layer NW into accumulating snows for Super Sunday.  Not sure if there is enough time for much more adjustments but I'd guess advisory event becoming more likely down here.

 

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The Euro's take:

ecmwf-deterministic-pennsylvania-snow_24hr_kuchera-2731600.thumb.png.e9cf929c62b8f73ee2f3d54643d773b3.png

Not focused like the NAM with the big amounts but a broader precip shield. Euro and esp GFS illustrate what I was suggesting in last night's post with getting the northern and southern shortwaves close enough to interact and cause a more expansive shield back NW of I-81. Wouldn't be heavy but I'd consider 1-2" a win back this way if it happened. This is starting to look like an advisory type event roughly I-81 east and I-78 south. 

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Measured 0.5" of new snow at daybreak, which easily melted off non-snow surfaces this morning.

Just did some measuring to get the state of the snowpack in the yard. Mostly ranges 6-9" with an area of shallow snow <3" on the one corner and an area of 14-17" on the downwind side of the house and between the house and the shed. Before the snowpack softened yesterday, that last 3.5" Tuesday evening was windblown and the wind continued Wednesday with some significant blowing and drifting. 

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Thermal gradient could argue for that closer surface low track ala the NAM.. which has the low into the southern Delmarva vs the GFS/EURO staying notably off the coast. Not like we're stuffing this system down with a significant arctic air intrusion that can push the baroclinic zone offshore.  (actual cold air comes in behind this sytem).  DC's coming off a day where it's 50ish tomorrow and temps during the event aren't overly cold even in the LSV.

Ugh, this system just had to suck me back in lol. 

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