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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yep. Gfs still separated but ticked in right direction. Plenty of time for it to come around although suppressed is def a possibility as cold is fresh and deep. 

I think even if the southern wave doesn't work out there's a northern branch shortwave and likely arctic frontal passage to be watched for there... and it would probably be a pretty potent one too given the arctic air on the table. Euro's the only one with this bigger storm attm, but it's been keeping this solution plus enjoying solid support from it's ensembles.. so def more than a fluky run or something like that. We'll see how things progress.

Did notice guidance isn't completely dumping the PV into the Great Lakes/NE today after whatever this system ends up being.. keeping the core of stupid cold -35 to -40ºC 850mb air just above over on the Canadian side of the North Central/Great Lakes. GFS drops it down more getting -20 to -25ºC 850mb air into the commonwealth. Euro cold but not quite as cold, which isn't too bad as that set up could be better in terms of getting a gradient pattern with some well tracked systems. Euro ran another system out around D8 or so. 

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20 minutes ago, canderson said:

12z Euro just for grins. Note that it's all on its own for this one - the GFS and everything else is way south. 

 

Not entirely true - Para GFS is actually running west of us from what I can tell. We have several south, one west, and the Euro just about perfect, at least for the LSV. Not a bad place to be right now. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not entirely true - Para GFS is actually running west of us from what I can tell. We have several south, one west, and the Euro just about perfect, at least for the LSV. Not a bad place to be right now. 

Ah, I didn't see the para - thanks for clarification! 

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36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not entirely true - Para GFS is actually running west of us from what I can tell. We have several south, one west, and the Euro just about perfect, at least for the LSV. Not a bad place to be right now. 

Yea 6z showed that.  Not sure about 12z para never updated for me. 

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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I’d take a 3 to 6 snowpack freshener, plus less shoveling and clean up!

I was thinking about you earlier today. On Sunday you were telling everyone that you MIGHT get a nice advisory event for this past storm. I think you said 4-6"?

And you ended up with how much, Mr. snow capital of the east? :) 

3-6" on Sunday would be perfect. Nice appetizer before I start big game hunting next week. 

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The 12z EPS 15 day snow map is showing a great signal for the next 2 weeks.

Maybe the LSV will get to seasonal average snow by this weekend if the 12z Euro verifies?

MDT is only 6 inches away from the seasonal average after the storm the last 2 days.

I’m exhausted after tracking & watching this storm performance since Sunday. 
Plus, with the sleet mixed in, this snow was tough to remove!

I will be ready to track again, probably right after dinner tonight!

 

AFB8CBBC-A49D-40A7-87C4-F7BF8FC197BF.png

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At this rate the deform bands might leave C-PA just in time for Friday’s event lol.
 

At roughly 65 hrs off and on with this storm now, and I’m currently getting by far the worst conditions I’ve gotten the whole event.

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