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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west.  You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago.  Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case.  When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day.  Another learning lesson for me.

you hit the nail right on. The models indicating these LP going west of the Apps is BS right now. Not enough data. Todays 06Z NAM model run shows the LP running through middle  of PA. then immediately transferring to the east coast on Tues. I have been looking at models runs for over 35 years and I have never seen an Apps runner take an immediate right turn when hitting PA.  Hurricane Sandy took an immediate left turn when riding the coast but that was a different scenario.  A normal Canadian High blocks and absorbs  LP' s waves to deflect but this models shows a HP that all of sudden  tends to set up a wall rather than  relax and deflect with a right turn when hit up on with an LP. It just does not work that way. Throw this model run out IMHO. 

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Said this in the Pittsburgh thread, but it is good we’ve had a great winter. If not I think we’d all be ready to bridge jump watching areas north of Houston get more snow than us. 

Exactly, just about all of PA is well above normal snow through today’s date. Also, we should still have more chances soon for those that miss out on Tuesday.

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, just about all of PA is well above normal snow through today’s date. Also, we should still have more chances soon for those that miss out on Tuesday.

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point.  

I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is.    Still enough time for changes...good or bad

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point.  

I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is.    Still enough time for changes...good or bad

The 12z GFS & Para, along with the GEFS, show a solid front end thump for Thursday.

Here is the regular old 12z GFS for Thursday.

 

6750904A-EC19-4204-A074-75587B88D4F6.png

B91CBEF8-4ED6-41A4-9A6C-0DA1453E1F0E.png

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4 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Said this in the Pittsburgh thread, but it is good we’ve had a great winter. If not I think we’d all be ready to bridge jump watching areas north of Houston get more snow than us. 

Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time?

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I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday

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CTP's latest update on Mon/Tues. I'd be ecstatic with that clean of a storm and 4-6"...but personally expecting a much messier outcome. I'm always a proponent of the cold hanging in better in C-PA than modeled, especially in the interior counties.. but CTP is really bullish inside the area boxed in by I-80 and the turnpike (N-S) and US 219 & US 11/15 (E-W).

That area in particular is going to be the hardest to forecast, and clearly CTP is favoring a colder column and perhaps factoring climo in with the track. 12z Euro still the coldest aloft while having the most expansive freezing rain, which I still don't get how the p-types get ZR out of a large portion of the interior central showing solidly below zero at 925 and surface.. and even 850. Issue is, column also warms between 850mb all the way up to 700mb in this zone at least briefly with 700 temps right around 0ºC or slightly above in roughly the eastern half of PA on some guidance. So I think even if the mostly frozen precip did happen here that it could be more sleet than snow, which would easily knock those bullish totals down. 

Otherwise, my main points from last night's post are pretty much unchanged. I personally think CTP should consider watches for some south central counties (all current non-watch counties NW of Franklin/Perry counties as that would be the region with the best chance to achieve a stripe of .25"+ ice in the very possible event that we get more of a freezing rain/sleet deal vs the more snow/sleet event being portrayed there in CTP's forecast. 

 

1713879068_ScreenShot2021-02-14at12_53_18PM.png.b1f34e4ebafd681729e4efd19f6c0ad1.png

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday

Only real big difference is the more robust high pressure progged to our north and NE for Thursday (and overall in the rest of the CONUS. That was the kind of high pressure models had north of us for Mon/Tues a few days ago whenever it was looking mostly snowy in PA. Helps deflect the surface low to the coast in time and at worst anchors a CAD wedge if the low tries to work up the other side of the Apps. Going to be extremely important to maintain that, because Thursday's storm could easily do the same thing the next one up seems destined to do, especially in the LSV. 

Mon/Tues storm arrival:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-3455200.thumb.png.505426dbf1bf2d83746d7dd5f52d0594.png

 

Thursday storm arrival:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-3660400.thumb.png.237dfc51c21d99610a9623d72fab7719.png

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40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time?

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Probably never. That is a gigantic expanse of the southern US under winter storm warnings. And those wind chill warnings that cover pretty much the entire north central US also are including a large portion of those winter storm warned counties. Def a historic and wide reaching arctic air outbreak. 

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