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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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Quiet in here.   What happened to all the storms?

It’s crazy how cold it is in the middle of the country down to Texas.   @MillvilleWxMidland below zero lows, Dallas low of 0 and temps 30-50 below average are just insane.   Could the pattern reload and a similar event happen for the east coast in March?  March has produced in recent years.   

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13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I don't know how anyone is trusting anything that these models are showing.  Unless you are inside 48 hours......and even then has been inconsistent.

I think the biggest upheaval of what we see today vs. last week at this time is the lack of real arctic air getting into our region.  There was talk of below zero nights just a few days ago but a run through the 2M Temps of the 6Z GFS shows only one night below 10 (LSV) for the rest of the month.   This has not been a warm winter by any means but it has certainly not been cold either. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I think the biggest upheaval of what we see today vs. last week at this time is the lack of real arctic air getting into our region.  There was talk of below zero nights just a few days ago but a run through the 2M Temps of the 6Z GFS shows only one night below 10 (LSV) for the rest of the month.   This has not been a warm winter by any means but it has certainly not been cold either. 

I agree, when you looked at the models last week they were dumping artic air right on top of us but that hasn't materialized. But maybe it is a good thing and us S PA take our chances with just moderately cold air. 

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

I agree, when you looked at the models last week they were dumping artic air right on top of us but that hasn't materialized. But maybe it is a good thing and us S PA take our chances with just moderately cold air. 

I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once.  I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising.   For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once.  I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising.   For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low. 

True, but it's also remarkable how we haven't torched.  The lows at night have not been as low as they should be but the highs during the day have been pretty normal.  No crazy 70s.

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1 minute ago, anotherman said:

True, but it's also remarkable how we haven't torched.  The lows at night have not been as low as they should be but the highs during the day have been pretty normal.  No crazy 70s.

Yep, you are right.  Dec had some warm days with Christmas Eve at 66 but its been fairly moderate.  Not much in the way of extremes.  I was just thinking of the lack of arctic air based off the models losing that for us next week. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, you are right.  Dec had some warm days with Christmas Eve at 66 but its been fairly moderate.  Not much in the way of extremes.  I was just thinking of the lack of arctic air based off the models losing that for us next week. 

Yeah, that's true.  No real extreme cold air.  Doesn't help that the oceans are boiling.

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once.  I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising.   For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low. 

I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over.

As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over.

As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday. 

You are right they did not.  We did here several times but I never checked MDT.  There were many nights in the teens but never below 10 during Dec  2019-Feb 2020.   So maybe its not all that rare. 

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