jm1220 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, A_Status said: Based on these graphics, EPS looks a little warm in the BL for us coasties. I wouldn’t be too concerned about what it shows for surface temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Am not adjusting anything in this thread headline til at least 630A Wednesday. EC seems a little robust, but we're getting down to D5-6 so it's got life. GFSv16 is right there with the EC. Keep at it... will review again Wednesday morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, wdrag said: Am not adjusting anything in this thread headline til at least 630A Wednesday. EC seems a little robust, but we're getting down to D5-6 so it's got life. GFSv16 is right there with the EC. Keep at it... will review again Wednesday morning. I really like reading your write-ups. It reminds me of when I was kid listening to the weather channel, and had no idea what was going on behind the scenes. Now I'm just older and still have no idea what's going on. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 47 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Snow on top of snow is not something we see that often in the metro area should would be awesome if this verified (don’t expect Friday’s cutter to be that strong so a lot of the snow shouldn’t melt) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Snow on top of snow is not something we see that often in the metro area should would be awesome if this verified (don’t expect Friday’s cutter to be that strong so a lot of the snow shouldn’t melt) Friday went from 50s and cutter to 30s and showers and snow showers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, North and West said: I really like reading your write-ups. It reminds me of when I was kid listening to the weather channel, and had no idea what was going on behind the scenes. Now I'm just older and still have no idea what's going on. It reminds me of when I was a slightly younger adult reading Walt's AFDs. Good times! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanslide Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, North and West said: I really like reading your write-ups. It reminds me of when I was kid listening to the weather channel, and had no idea what was going on behind the scenes. Now I'm just older and still have no idea what's going on. I read this and couldn't stop laughing. That is me, yet I still come here for a good dose of "If I only knew what the heck they are talking about". Many years ago I had a private tour of the Weather Channel in Atlanta. I knew nothing other than low pressure goes counter-clockwise and high, clockwise. The tour was cool, none the less, just like this site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Topic started for 2/5 more minor event, could be 1-3/2-4" for some in the forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: It reminds me of when I was a slightly younger adult reading Walt's AFDs. Good times! I might have Walt's AFD for the March 2001 storm saved somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I'm a little worried that it's gonna end up being a hugger but the Greenland block placement is excellent and there's a lot of cold air ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 i had no idea mr. wdrag wasn't just a meteorologist but an actual NWS employee. i am very grateful he continues to grace us with his knowledge and discussion even in retirement. i would be slightly more grateful if his forecasts for this weekend keep the snow below 6 inches so that i have a chance of finding somewhere to park at my apartment complex before March. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm a little worried that it's gonna end up being a hugger but the Greenland block placement is excellent and there's a lot of cold air ahead of it. Gfs and cmc are right now ots but given how consistent euro has been I’d be surprised if this ends up ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 59 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Gfs and cmc are right now ots but given how consistent euro has been I’d be surprised if this ends up ots GFS is garbage. I put more weight on another less than stellar model, the ICON, which at 18z has a storm. GFSv16 seems to be much better and has a storm on its 06z run but 12z run didn't come out for some reason. Cmc hopefully shows something at 00z and GFS will play catchup like it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 59 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: GFS is garbage. I put more weight on another less than stellar model, the ICON, which at 18z has a storm. GFSv16 seems to be much better and has a storm on its 06z run but 12z run didn't come out for some reason. Cmc hopefully shows something at 00z and GFS will play catchup like it always does. Icon is lousy too but probably too amped is actually a bigger risk than ots with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Icon is lousy too but probably too amped is actually a bigger risk than ots with this. Icon usually has an amped bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Of late, it appears to my unqualified eyes that the gfsv16 is pretty good esp. compared the gfs on the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Of late, it appears to my unqualified eyes that the gfsv16 is pretty good esp. compared the gfs on the last storm. It did very well with both the December 16-17 and the most recent storm. I am not sure why it didn’t run for the 12z and 18z cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It did very well with both the December 16-17 and the most recent storm. I am not sure why it didn’t run for the 12z and 18z cycles. (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neg-ano Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The GFS model sees the energy in the Polar Jet and it misses seeing the energy in the southern jet. This is classic GFS this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It's probably a good thing most models see this suppressed this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 0Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Cmc/gfs still no interest in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS Gefs is more northwest compared to the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Cmc/gfs still no interest in this Cmc is all over. It has so much energy everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 0Z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 52 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's probably a good thing most models see this suppressed this far out. Maybe. Models haven’t been as bad this winter as in the past so I wouldn’t assume an automatic big nw trend but if euro is consistent decent chance of a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z Canadian I like the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I like the one behind it. It is either delayed or it is 2 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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