LVblizzard

Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

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Just now, Newman said:

Ticks mean everything at this range. Especially with this CCB

A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage.

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Lets just sit back and let this unfold were all not getting 2' out of this its gonna be where the CCB sets up as stated numerous times, this has been a very exciting week and its finally here Best of Luck to all. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage.

IMO, the NAM 500mb changes were not miniscule or a "tick". It appears small, but just look at how much more those heights back into the coast from 6z. Plus the trough is trying to dig deeper as well. It's not much, you're right. But considering the NAM was well on the east side of guidance, all I was looking for was for it to come back west. Which it did.

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh26_trend.thumb.gif.d38363daf564167c97194c353e9ca6dd.gif

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Last WXSIM with 6z data before storm time - has total snow of 14" to 23"

Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely
 in the afternoon. High 30. Wind east around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation 60
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an
 inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.
 
 Tonight: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a mix of snow, sleet,
 and rain likely after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight.
 Wind chill as low as 16. Wind east around 11 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely. Breezy. High 33. Wind
 chill around 20. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and
 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 8 to 12 inches.
 
 Monday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow
 after midnight. Breezy. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind north-northeast
 around 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation
 2 to 4 inches.

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15 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said:

3KM NAM looks like trash. Keeps the good stuff in NJ

There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend.

nam3km_asnow_ferrier_neus_34.png

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend.

Watch the NAM be right!! 

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42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage.

Your noise just took away a foot of my snow! :P

It's never easy being a weenie in these parts. Hopefully just a NAM hiccup and not a trend.

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Just now, JTA66 said:

Your noise just took away a foot of my snow! :P

It's never easy being a weenie in these parts. Hopefully just a NAM hiccup and not a trend.

Everyone last night said ignore the NAM its trash. So yeah, do as you wish.

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32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend.

nam3km_asnow_ferrier_neus_34.png

Idk looks fine to me 

 

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Idk looks fine to me 

 

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Well thats the 6z for starters. And secondly you've been around and know as well as anyone the SLR ratio maps are usually much closer to the truth than the over inflated Kuchera maps.

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50 minutes ago, Animal said:

People..I can’t say this again.

always discount the model that gives your street the least amount of snow. Ride hard the snowiest models.

As someone who lives in NJ right across from Philly, I fully support this recommendation. Thank you for your wise words.

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Rgem further se than 06z. I don't see any reason for panic or concern unless you live in like delaware or south jersey. Other than that everyone looks good for a foot still at least...

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