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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


LVblizzard
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Some monster snow potential in e PA and quite a bit of NJ also if the North American models are correct, in particular the RGEM, very tight frontal boundaries will be shoved up against the cold trapped over e PA, with a coastal making a bit of a retrograde motion later Monday. Euro solution more like 15-25" max. I suppose that makes it the more likely to verify just on probability alone, but if there's more of a curl to the circulation, look out, some place in e PA could top 40" like BGM did in the December storm. 

If I had to guess where the jackpot will be, would say Pottstown to Easton. Would not expect much today, all unfolds with the coastal rapid deepening phase. 

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15 minutes ago, Amythach said:

People keep saying 6-8 in Philadelphia because there will be a hanger over into warmer air later on tonight and tomorrow morning. I’m disappointed- I want a foot!

We probly will see some sleet mix in during the lull while the energy transfers to the coast but that precip would be light anyway. After that almost every model has us getting crushed by the coastal. 6-8 is a very conservative forecast. My guess is theyre just leaving room for error and will adjust upwards as this goes.

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For reference, Philadelphia has had 10 snowstorms of 12" or more since 2000. Those snowstorms were:

February 15-18, 2003: 20.8"
January 22-24, 2005: 13.2"
February 11-12, 2006: 12.0"'
December 19-20, 2009: 23.2"
February 5-6, 2010: 28.5"
February 9-10, 2010: 15.8"
December 26-27, 2010: 12.4"
January 26-27, 2011: 15.1"
January 21-22, 2014: 13.5"
January 22-23, 2016: 22.4"

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46 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:


Official measurement was 22.4 inches. I worked out in Chester springs and there was probably close to 30. So hard to measure with the drifting from that storm.


.

In phoenixville we had about 28 inches, maybe a bit more imby on a large hill south of town.  First time seeing lightning/thunder during a snowstorm.  

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, Philadelphia has had 10 snowstorms of 12" or more since 2000. Those snowstorms were:

February 15-18, 2003: 20.8"
January 22-24, 2005: 13.2"
February 11-12, 2006: 12.0"'
December 19-20, 2009: 23.2"
February 5-6, 2010: 28.5"
February 9-10, 2010: 15.8"
December 26-27, 2010: 12.4"
January 26-27, 2011: 15.1"
January 21-22, 2014: 13.5"
January 22-23, 2016: 22.4"

Thanks for posting here today Don‼️

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, Philadelphia has had 10 snowstorms of 12" or more since 2000. Those snowstorms were:

February 15-18, 2003: 20.8"
January 22-24, 2005: 13.2"
February 11-12, 2006: 12.0"'
December 19-20, 2009: 23.2"
February 5-6, 2010: 28.5"
February 9-10, 2010: 15.8"
December 26-27, 2010: 12.4"
January 26-27, 2011: 15.1"
January 21-22, 2014: 13.5"
January 22-23, 2016: 22.4"

I'll wager not that many in the 20 years prior - Only 1983, 1987 and 1993? = global  warming

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4 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

I'll wager not that many in the 20 years prior - Only 1983, 1987 and 1993? = global  warming

The entire 1950-99 period had 10 such storms. Almost certainly, the increased moisture content associated with warming is leading to higher impact storms when there is sufficient cold. There has also been a disproportionate increase in the frequency of such storms in the Islip, Newark and New York City areas since 2000..

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7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

thanks for posting in this region Don. Your comments are much appreciated. Your thoughts on for the LV snow accumaltion outcomes? Can we hit 30 inches here in Macungie

If things remain on course and there are no surprises, parts of the Lehigh Valley could see 20"-30" snow. A lot depends on where the banding will set up. This should be a memorable storm.

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The entire 1950-99 period had 10 such storms. Almost certainly, the increased moisture content associated with warming is leading to higher impact storms when there is sufficient cold. There has also been a disproportionate increase in the frequency of such storms in the Islip, Newark and New York City areas since 2000..

Wow!!  thanks.  Will you ever put out a book?

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