• Member Statistics

    16,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BobbyB
    Newest Member
    BobbyB
    Joined
Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta say, this is probably the most subdued I've ever been after having a Euro run drop 18" imby less than 5 days out.  Just too much time for shifting.  The good news on the macroscale is that time is starting to run out for this to turn into a complete dud everywhere.  Very likely going to be pretty big somewhere, just a matter of where.

I feel the same way man. Although that slight shift south on the EURO has me concerned from what has happened in the past. Good news though the Euro ENS MEAN Looks to hold 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Usual 10:1 caveats apply. 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

A little wobble back north would be appreciated 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z EPS now centered from QCA to Chicago metro roughly. Lots of good hits on the members, would like to get rid of the remaining duds. I'm busy getting the forecast out so don't have time to post images today.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z EPS Mean...

DCEBE8E9-509F-496B-A647-1592B11EC23C.thumb.png.7fc1f61eaf5985cbb1ed35181042c16e.png

Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hoosier said:

Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6"

The MSLP spread remains large

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_member_contours-1611230400-1611576000-1611662400-40.thumb.gif.b6c7b301aa249e921edb47d93295aeb2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:
drying trend is no bueno


Not really a drying trend. Mostly due to a bit more spread.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6"

BB81EC31-90C0-4D7A-B7A7-528D247F31AC.thumb.png.578d9b1a5b69fc96b00f0f6ac41ee9f6.png
D59BAADF-8DCF-4106-BAD6-1126753F033D.thumb.png.1ed6936546c2a8ca5c2d47d063f96e47.png

  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby

 

One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake.  Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role.  Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hoosier said:

One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake.  Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role.  Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

no way is 46 correct but yeah, it's warm for the time of year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

12z EPS now centered from QCA to Chicago metro roughly. Lots of good hits on the members, would like to get rid of the remaining duds. I'm busy getting the forecast out so don't have time to post images today.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

You say that almost as if you have a real job in weather or something and don't just do this as a hobby :p

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake.  Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role.  Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

MSU remote sensing suggests 42 is the mid-lake max. Probably more reasonable.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just for a point of reference.

bamwx should fold.


.
  • Like 4
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I believe the Euro is too far north. That blocking is going to be heard from 

I thought you gave up on this 2 hours ago for Indy. Now you're in for Indy?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, Indy probably isn't happening. The GEFS are all over the place. A couple really jacked up runs, a few GFS like runs bumped north/better organized. Many with almost nothing for the region...........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Just for a point of reference.

I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out.  Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and   lure unwitting energy traders/clients.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Again, the euro h7 track argues for some mid level magic.  Based on the 12Z run today I would jackpot southern WI along the state line with IL.  QPF queening won’t tell the whole story.  

  • Like 5
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Baum said:

I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out.  Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and   lure unwitting energy traders/clients.

They've been quackier than a duck farm for ages.

  • Haha 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

unapologetic 

It's a very NE forum thing. Us Midwesterners are a bit more polite. Except for me and you. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

It's a very NE forum thing. Us Midwesterners are a bit more polite. Except for me and you. 

Lol.   CT Rain started that probably 6-7 years ago.  Drivers here have devolved to Boston level..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.