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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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29 minutes ago, Nor'easter said:

Hmm...  Farmers Almanac calls for a blizzard the second week of February.

 

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How the wooly worms look?

I like to keep score on them...they nailed both the December 16th storm, Christmas cold front, and the NYE front. Not so much this month...no snow forecast, but it's not "very cold", lol I always find it amusing when they do get it right...not sure what formula they use to try and guess! But I don't take them too seriously...just a bit of a "huh...we'll see". But surprising was last year...not even they predicted much snow, lol

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

I like to keep score on them...they nailed both the December 16th storm, Christmas cold front, and the NYE front. Not so much this month...no snow forecast, but it's not "very cold", lol I always find it amusing when they do get it right...not sure what formula they use to try and guess! But I don't take them too seriously...just a bit of a "huh...we'll see"

Scientific analysis of their day to day forecasts show they have no more accuracy than random chance. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Scientific analysis of their day to day forecasts show they have no more accuracy than random chance. 

Still funny when they hit it on the nose, though, date and all (like I said, they hit last month on the nose...both Almanacs had the storm)...must be some formula they use. Doesn't seem like they're just shooting in the dark...to my eyes it seems to be a certain non-zero percentage they get something right, lol

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Still funny when they hit it on the nose, though, date and all (like I said, they hit last month on the nose...both Almanacs had the storm)...must be some formula they use. Doesn't seem like they're just shooting in the dark...to my eyes it seems to be a certain non-zero percentage they get something right, lol

Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think they do it randomly?

I have no idea.  I’m just saying objective studies of it’s accuracy shows it has no validity.  Their seasonal forecasts have a slightly better track record and show some skill above just random chance. But their day to day forecasts do not. 

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think they do it randomly?

This should probably move to banter, but I feel obligated to respond as I'm studying data science. :grad:

The most often-cited resource on this is:  Walsh, John E.; David Allen (October 1981). "Testing the Farmer's Almanac". Weatherwise.

The findings of the above study (University of Illinois) were that monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts were 52% and 51% accurate over a 5-year study period, respectively. Given an anticipated random accuracy of 50%, this suggests that their method (if any) does not significantly increase the forecast accuracy above simple guessing. 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

Is "WB's JB" =  Joe Bastardi? 

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December 

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December 

I think that December was less than 2 degrees above normal at DCA.  Cooler than January...

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13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

I stopped watching his videos regularly years ago but yesterday I threw one on out of curiosity and he outlined the same progression I laid out a few days ago.  It honestly made me feel less confident in my prediction. 

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

And I’m not sure what this is in reference too but I’ve seen his tweets shared on my Twitter feed comparing the pattern to 2010 several times and I think I remember a comment where he said he would be shocked if DC to Boston wasnt above normal snow by Mid Feb do not sure how not bullish that is lol. 

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