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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Has anyone been keeping tabs on how it ended up doing with the last few storms?  

Did pretty well with the ice storm. Showed about .3-.4 qpf consistently and handled the shortwave pretty well I thought. 

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster.

1613736000-dmKDo1jixG4.png

that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC

1613736000-JgxNJMEiHTY.png

Yeah, temperatures stay below 30 the full duration of the storm with a ton of precip. Would be a doozy if accurate. Obviously a huge if. 

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1 minute ago, ForestHillbilly said:

Yup, that's what it's about. A beat down on a model run. Who cares about the actual snow.

 

 

What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 

Hey i posted 3 hour frames and people got there nuts tied around there necks about it lol

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6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Funny thing is my forecasts are saying 41 for friday morning showers. So not sure if all the models are saying below freezing and snow and ice why the forecast is that off.

Probably just in catch up mode. Things just started looking more wintry after days of looking like a pure rain maker. I'm sure if this is a real trend and it continues into tomorrow, the weather app forecasts will start to resemble it. 

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 

Exactly!! As I said if people aren’t here to ‘listen’ to good weather people and see what’s happening with the models then go watch ‘Netflix and chill’.

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3 minutes ago, Awilson said:

Hey i posted 3 hour frames and people got there nuts tied around there necks about it lol

But that was because it was clogging up the thread and a lot of them were uneventful frames. I think you had the best of intentions but they share the eventful model frames in these threads and discuss. 

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Just now, Steve25 said:

But that was because it was clogging up the thread and a lot of them were uneventful frames. I don't think you had the best of intentions but they share the eventful model frames in these threads and discuss. 

Yeah i know I’m just making light of the whole situation, but hey now i know, 

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27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion.  Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy.  I dunno.  We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure.

That’s very true but it only works to a degree.  First of all the gfs is awful with surface CAD so whatever warming we get from the heavier rain is likely offset by the fact the gfs is probably running a couple degrees too warm if it’s right about everything else. Also if it’s mid 20s or colder some if not most of that will freeze. It was pouring rain a few times in 1994 and accumulated ice. But the key is it was 25 not 30 degrees. Even if not all of the rain there freezes that would be a major ice event as shown Imo.  

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This could be a bad one irt ice even if there's heavy rain. It's cold af leading in. Possibly cold enough to freeze the ground. Things like roads/bridges could potentially be in the 20's when the snow/sleet starts even in the close burbs. I've seen rain freeze on contact with air temp above freezing when the night before is cold enough.  

The good thing is the theoretical snow/sleet would cover everything first and make zr less of a hazard. But temps could be in the teens in some favored places wed night. There's like a better than 0% chance DCA gets below freezing before onset. Sounds like crazy talk but maybe... just maybe...

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27 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Probably just in catch up mode. Things just started looking more wintry after days of looking like a pure rain maker. I'm sure if this is a real trend and it continues into tomorrow, the weather app forecasts will start to resemble it. 

Ah thanks but its funny cause I went frim seeing 38 on friday yesterday to 41 for friday today but that explains it lol.

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30 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 

I haven’t missed this lately 

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