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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Mod snow DCA to EZF at 81 on 06z RGEM with temp 24/26 at DCA at hours 81/84 with very strong CAD 

0.4 to 0.5 QPF through 84 at DCA (using 12 hour accumulated QPF map)

3 to 6 inches of snow have fallen in most parts of N VA into DC at 84... DCA to EZF to CHO... Warrenton and Luray included... 2 to 3 inches in Loudoun/Clarke/Frederick counties in NW VA

 

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You do the best pbp...very nice trends...almost too nice.  

Sorry I made a big mistake... I thought PW updated to 06z RGEM automatically... but you have to do it manually... so this is all 00z stuff :axe:

I'll do 06z for real in a minute... sorry guys

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Looping what the GFS does with today's system for Wednesday is super fascinating. That system wants to linger for as long as it can, and the trend isn't stopping. That's for sure contributing to the more suppressed look ahead of the Thursday system. Heights a fair bit lower ahead compared to 0z, which were lower than 18z, etc. At this point with our previous systems that got suppressed from flush hits (like Jan 28), this trend was screwing us over, but now it wants to get us into a somewhat decent look lol. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

There has been more of an emphasis on the lead energy out in front of the main trough on the Euro and Para, which gets the coastal going sooner and further south. The last couple runs of the GFS/GEFS took a pretty big step towards that idea.

With the ICON, Euro, UKIE in one camp, I would think the gfs insistence on taking that low basically due north up just west of the apps is wrong.

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