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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Continuity??


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic front slips through Thursday with H850T falling to -18/-20C
over the course of the day. With ongoing CAA and support from a mid-
level shortwave dropping southeast through the NW`erly flow,
scattered lake effect snow showers will then become more numerous
with some accumulating snows Thursday night. Shortwave trough
departs to our southeast and then out to sea on Friday. Subsidence
in its wake and a drier air mass filtering in will then limit lake
effect snows Friday with diminishing returns. Lake snows finally
wrap up Friday night with sfc high pressure build southeast into the
Lower Lakes overnight.

Otherwise, cold both days with highs anticipated in the teens
Thursday areawide. A bit colder Friday with single digits expected
across the North Country, teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light lake effect snow will continue Saturday morning with
temperatures at 850 hPa in the negative teens. Northerly flow will
favor areas along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline...with perhaps
a few flurries early southeast of Lake Erie before surface high
pressure and a drier airmass crosses into our region. The light
winds will restrict any accumulations closer to the shorelines.
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I hate to mention this, well not really, but reports of the snowfall's demise are somewhat exaggerated...SN- hanging on here and radar starting to fill in to the west. Wolfie and LES might be in a great spot to harvest a few more inches this evening.  I might be on the southern fringes as KBGM map from this a.m. indicated.

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20 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Tonight marks 4 weeks of a continuous snow cover in Brewerton starting with 13.2 inches of lake effect on 12/29. What seems to be a crappy winter has at least given the appearance of winter with the ground being white. 

We've had that here since Dec 25/26th LES event/storm combo but without snow falling just doesn't do it for me. Had one good LES event in between that one though which was decent. Definitely better than last year.

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14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It went from whiffing us to the south to just about whiffing us to the north. lol

Yeah, pretty unbelievable. Seems to be a trend in the models this year.  Much moreso than most years. I'm used to the GFS always being to far S&E with storm tracks but they all sewm to have the same issue this season.  No idea if there is a common denominator here.   

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