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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not out yet (at least on WxBell)

Thanks. I never can keep up with when that comes out.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This speaks for itself, lol.

1611716400-izo7mBdYx74.png

The gfs is handling the progression completely different then other guidance. This isn’t a case where it’s just north or south or more/less amped then the consensus.  It’s following a totally different course. It’s likely at this range that ensembles based on this it’s physics would do the same. Right or wrong we’re not gleaning much from them in this case. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

18z EPS seems like it made another jog nw.. probably not gonna make many friends here

Blah

AC5312BD-7639-436B-A43E-3BC45C20B9C2.png

CCC90167-86E3-402B-A6A4-525DD410616A.png

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

18z EPS seems like it made another jog nw.. probably not gonna make many friends here

I'm not in love with these maps, but they clearly demonstrate that the look ain't getting better.

18z

1611684000-eFa28qfbx6Q.png

12z

1611684000-8N3LVPk3mL0.png

00z

1611684000-zQ9kD0jb7TQ.png

It ain't over by any means, but it's not good.

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

18z EPS seems like it made another jog nw.. probably not gonna make many friends here

If given the chance to make a bet on 31 Dec that most of us in the forum would have a snowless January I would have kept my money.  

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is handling the progression completely different then other guidance. This isn’t a case where it’s just north or south or more/less amped then the consensus.  It’s following a totally different course. It’s likely at this range that ensembles based on this it’s physics would do the same. Right or wrong we’re not gleaning much from them in this case. 

I agree in principle, but when you can't find at least one winner among all the GEFS members and there are a decent handful of stinkers in the 12z EPS (and now more in the 18z), I tend to align (perhaps incorrectly) with the more "consistent" guidance. I realize the GFS/GEFS has been inconsistent in why it's bad for us, but it's always bad for us.

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34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Bleh. Good things it’s five days out still.

Yep...long ways to go. I just wish I had more time to track this storm  . Been slammed at work . Quick peak early in the morning.  Quick peak around lunch then after work . Working Construction makes it tougher anyway but smart phones have helped :D.  Doesn't seem  long ago I had to wait till I got home to check things on the computer . 

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49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...long ways to go. I just wish I had more time to track this storm  . Been slammed at work . Quick peak early in the morning.  Quick peak around lunch then after work . Working Construction makes it tougher anyway but smart phones have helped :D.  Doesn't seem  long ago I had to wait till I got home to check things on the computer . 

I’m a painter but I say screw it. I end up refreshing the gfs and euro after every roll and brush stroke.

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Icon south.  Anything that does fall would be snow.  Not a ton of precip though.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon coming in colder ,slower ,and further south

Yeah but not very much QPF into N MD and BWI region 

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nice start to 0z.

7682F94F-3573-46F7-86EE-A8E87E39D44D.png

I would throw my mother in law off a bridge for that outcome.  Half that...partly cloudy 

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yeah but not very much QPF into N MD and BWI region 

Yep...slight shifts take you from bullseye to fringed when the scope is so narrow lol.  Obviously I want it to snow in my yard but if I’m going to get fringed I’d rather it be to the south so at least DC finally gets a hit so I’ll take south. 

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There is a tpv lobe coming across Canada. I remember a wave early March 2014 that was supposed to be a big snow in PA then got suppressed by a tpv lobe coming across Canada.  No two situations are the same but how that interacts has a huge bearing. Runs that partially phase that feature with the NS wave go north. Runs that have no interaction it acts to suppress. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

1611694800-s7lCvdjAIp0.png

Fine with me 5 days out. My concern is this will become a congrats State college. 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Fine with me 5 days out. My concern is this will become a congrats State college. 

Truth is both north and south are equally a threat depending on how it interacts with the TPV. No phasing to pump ridging and it could get suppressed.  Too much interaction and it could cut. And with such a relatively small snow zone it doesn’t take much either way.  The one good thing is when it’s not easy to decide which is the bigger risk (north v south) that often means you’re in a pretty good spot. 

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